Arizona
Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.4#2
Expected Predictive Rating+22.3#2
Pace81.2#5
Improvement-2.0#263

Offense
Total Offense+9.6#10
First Shot+6.1#29
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#4
Layup/Dunks+8.3#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
Freethrows+0.6#130
Improvement-1.4#269

Defense
Total Defense+9.8#6
First Shot+10.4#5
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#231
Layups/Dunks+7.8#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#91
Freethrows+2.8#22
Improvement-0.6#211
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.5% 10.8% 4.2%
#1 Seed 38.9% 42.8% 23.2%
Top 2 Seed 68.1% 72.8% 49.2%
Top 4 Seed 93.6% 95.7% 85.2%
Top 6 Seed 98.7% 99.3% 96.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Average Seed 2.2 2.0 2.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 83.1% 86.9% 67.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Second Round94.8% 95.5% 92.2%
Sweet Sixteen72.4% 73.5% 67.7%
Elite Eight47.9% 49.3% 41.8%
Final Four28.7% 30.0% 23.4%
Championship Game16.7% 17.6% 13.0%
National Champion8.9% 9.5% 6.3%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 80.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 23 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 16 - 3
Quad 28 - 114 - 4
Quad 37 - 021 - 4
Quad 46 - 028 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 319   Northern Arizona W 81-52 99%     1 - 0 +16.7 +1.2 +15.4
  Nov 12, 2021 276   UT Rio Grande Valley W 104-50 99%     2 - 0 +45.0 +12.5 +25.8
  Nov 16, 2021 188   North Dakota St. W 97-45 97%     3 - 0 +48.4 +20.0 +27.4
  Nov 19, 2021 87   Wichita St. W 82-78 OT 88%     4 - 0 +10.6 -1.7 +11.4
  Nov 21, 2021 24   Michigan W 80-62 74%     5 - 0 +30.8 +11.6 +19.1
  Nov 27, 2021 279   Sacramento St. W 105-59 99%     6 - 0 +36.7 +15.0 +15.5
  Dec 05, 2021 124   @ Oregon St. W 90-65 90%     7 - 0 1 - 0 +30.4 +13.5 +15.6
  Dec 08, 2021 66   Wyoming W 94-65 90%     8 - 0 +34.6 +18.9 +14.5
  Dec 11, 2021 11   @ Illinois W 83-79 51%     9 - 0 +23.2 +12.3 +10.6
  Dec 15, 2021 209   Northern Colorado W 101-76 98%     10 - 0 +20.3 +12.1 +5.4
  Dec 18, 2021 236   California Baptist W 84-60 98%     11 - 0 +17.5 +2.4 +13.8
  Dec 22, 2021 15   @ Tennessee L 73-77 59%     11 - 1 +13.1 +6.4 +7.0
  Jan 03, 2022 130   Washington W 95-79 96%     12 - 1 2 - 0 +15.9 +15.8 -1.4
  Jan 13, 2022 69   Colorado W 76-55 90%     13 - 1 3 - 0 +26.3 +1.1 +23.7
  Jan 15, 2022 111   Utah W 82-64 94%     14 - 1 4 - 0 +19.7 +4.9 +14.0
  Jan 20, 2022 76   @ Stanford W 81-71 80%    
  Jan 23, 2022 107   @ California W 76-63 88%    
  Jan 25, 2022 12   @ UCLA W 77-76 49%    
  Jan 29, 2022 119   Arizona St. W 83-64 96%    
  Feb 03, 2022 12   UCLA W 79-74 71%    
  Feb 05, 2022 26   USC W 79-70 82%    
  Feb 10, 2022 52   @ Washington St. W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 12, 2022 130   @ Washington W 84-69 90%    
  Feb 17, 2022 124   Oregon St. W 86-67 97%    
  Feb 19, 2022 40   Oregon W 82-71 86%    
  Feb 24, 2022 111   @ Utah W 83-70 87%    
  Feb 26, 2022 69   @ Colorado W 78-69 79%    
  Mar 03, 2022 76   Stanford W 83-68 92%    
  Mar 05, 2022 107   California W 78-60 95%    
Projected Record 26 - 3 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 6.2 17.8 26.1 22.3 9.5 83.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 5.8 11.5 20.9 26.6 22.4 9.5 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 9.5    9.5
17-3 99.9% 22.3    22.1 0.3
16-4 98.3% 26.1    23.9 2.2 0.0
15-5 85.3% 17.8    11.9 5.5 0.4 0.0
14-6 54.1% 6.2    2.3 2.9 1.0 0.1
13-7 17.0% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 83.1% 83.1 69.8 11.3 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 9.5% 100.0% 61.9% 38.1% 1.2 7.5 1.9 0.1 100.0%
17-3 22.4% 100.0% 57.5% 42.5% 1.4 14.7 6.8 0.8 0.0 100.0%
16-4 26.6% 100.0% 50.3% 49.7% 1.7 11.9 10.5 3.6 0.5 0.0 100.0%
15-5 20.9% 100.0% 45.5% 54.5% 2.4 4.1 7.6 6.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.5% 100.0% 39.2% 60.8% 3.2 0.6 2.1 4.2 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 5.8% 99.8% 34.5% 65.4% 4.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 2.2% 99.6% 27.3% 72.4% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.5%
11-9 0.8% 97.7% 19.4% 78.3% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.2%
10-10 0.2% 93.0% 20.9% 72.1% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.2%
9-11 0.1% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 49.0% 51.0% 2.2 38.9 29.2 16.6 8.9 3.6 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.9% 100.0% 1.2 82.3 17.2 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5% 100.0% 1.3 72.9 24.8 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6% 100.0% 1.3 73.8 23.4 2.7