Arizona St.
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#119
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#119
Pace70.2#135
Improvement-2.2#271

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#215
First Shot-2.4#256
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#103
Layup/Dunks-2.3#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#66
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#223
Freethrows-1.1#271
Improvement-3.3#339

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#62
First Shot+4.1#58
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#128
Layups/Dunks+2.1#103
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#246
Freethrows+0.6#142
Improvement+1.2#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.2% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.3 12.8
.500 or above 2.8% 7.3% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 4.0% 10.2% 1.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.2% 10.2% 27.6%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 1.0% 0.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 25.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 8
Quad 22 - 75 - 15
Quad 33 - 38 - 18
Quad 42 - 011 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 245   Portland W 76-60 84%     1 - 0 +8.9 -6.5 +14.1
  Nov 11, 2021 143   UC Riverside L 65-66 67%     1 - 1 -2.3 -1.5 -0.8
  Nov 15, 2021 313   North Florida W 72-63 91%     2 - 1 -2.2 -3.6 +1.7
  Nov 18, 2021 33   @ San Diego St. L 63-65 16%     2 - 2 +12.0 +4.0 +7.9
  Nov 24, 2021 5   Baylor L 63-75 8%     2 - 3 +6.9 -0.5 +7.1
  Nov 25, 2021 61   Syracuse L 84-92 31%     2 - 4 +0.4 +7.7 -7.0
  Nov 26, 2021 28   Loyola Chicago L 59-77 20%     2 - 5 -5.7 -0.5 -7.3
  Dec 01, 2021 52   Washington St. L 29-51 37%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -15.3 -37.1 +20.3
  Dec 05, 2021 40   @ Oregon W 69-67 OT 18%     3 - 6 1 - 1 +15.1 -1.3 +16.3
  Dec 09, 2021 96   Grand Canyon W 67-62 50%     4 - 6 +8.3 -5.1 +13.3
  Dec 14, 2021 45   @ Creighton W 58-57 19%     5 - 6 +13.7 -5.7 +19.5
  Dec 19, 2021 39   San Francisco L 65-66 32%     5 - 7 +7.1 -5.1 +12.2
  Jan 02, 2022 107   @ California L 50-74 37%     5 - 8 1 - 2 -17.1 -13.5 -5.4
  Jan 15, 2022 69   Colorado L 57-75 42%     5 - 9 1 - 3 -12.7 -11.9 -1.0
  Jan 17, 2022 111   Utah W 64-62 56%     6 - 9 2 - 3 +3.7 -4.7 +8.6
  Jan 22, 2022 76   @ Stanford L 64-71 25%    
  Jan 24, 2022 26   @ USC L 61-73 12%    
  Jan 29, 2022 2   @ Arizona L 64-83 4%    
  Feb 03, 2022 26   USC L 64-71 28%    
  Feb 05, 2022 12   UCLA L 63-74 17%    
  Feb 10, 2022 130   @ Washington L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 12, 2022 52   @ Washington St. L 62-70 21%    
  Feb 17, 2022 40   Oregon L 66-71 35%    
  Feb 19, 2022 124   Oregon St. W 70-67 63%    
  Feb 24, 2022 69   @ Colorado L 62-69 24%    
  Feb 26, 2022 111   @ Utah L 67-70 37%    
  Mar 03, 2022 107   California W 63-61 57%    
  Mar 05, 2022 76   Stanford L 66-68 46%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.3 2.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 2.9 0.8 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 5.0 1.9 0.2 9.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 7.7 4.2 0.4 14.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 9.0 6.4 0.7 0.0 18.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.6 8.4 7.7 1.2 0.0 19.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 6.4 7.5 1.6 0.1 16.8 11th
12th 1.4 4.3 4.8 1.4 0.0 11.9 12th
Total 1.5 5.6 12.8 19.3 20.6 17.8 11.9 6.6 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 42.9% 42.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 42.9%
11-9 0.9% 13.1% 5.2% 8.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 8.4%
10-10 2.8% 2.4% 1.1% 1.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 1.3%
9-11 6.6% 0.7% 0.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5
8-12 11.9% 0.6% 0.6% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8
7-13 17.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 17.8
6-14 20.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 20.6
5-15 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.3
4-16 12.8% 12.8
3-17 5.6% 5.6
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.5 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%