Oregon
Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#40
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#57
Pace66.7#238
Improvement+4.0#34

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#23
First Shot+7.3#18
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#162
Layup/Dunks+5.4#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#106
Freethrows+0.6#128
Improvement+1.7#79

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#89
First Shot+1.6#125
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#65
Layups/Dunks+0.5#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#260
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#156
Freethrows+1.3#90
Improvement+2.3#50
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.9% 2.7% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 8.3% 10.9% 3.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.8% 63.6% 43.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.9% 60.8% 41.0%
Average Seed 8.7 8.5 9.3
.500 or above 95.7% 97.9% 91.3%
.500 or above in Conference 92.7% 96.4% 85.8%
Conference Champion 12.1% 15.6% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four7.7% 7.2% 8.5%
First Round53.0% 60.0% 39.7%
Second Round26.4% 30.6% 18.5%
Sweet Sixteen8.1% 9.6% 5.3%
Elite Eight3.0% 3.5% 2.1%
Final Four1.1% 1.3% 0.6%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Home) - 65.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 38 - 11
Quad 37 - 215 - 12
Quad 44 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 204   Texas Southern W 83-66 91%     1 - 0 +12.6 +16.5 -2.4
  Nov 12, 2021 63   SMU W 86-63 68%     2 - 0 +28.7 +13.3 +15.2
  Nov 16, 2021 29   BYU L 49-81 44%     2 - 1 -19.8 -13.8 -8.1
  Nov 23, 2021 38   St. Mary's L 50-62 50%     2 - 2 -1.3 -9.0 +6.5
  Nov 24, 2021 9   Houston L 49-78 25%     2 - 3 -11.5 -13.9 +1.2
  Nov 29, 2021 178   Montana W 87-47 89%     3 - 3 +36.9 +16.2 +22.4
  Dec 01, 2021 143   UC Riverside W 71-65 86%     4 - 3 +4.7 +17.2 -11.1
  Dec 05, 2021 119   Arizona St. L 67-69 OT 82%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -1.1 -4.0 +2.9
  Dec 12, 2021 76   @ Stanford L 69-72 53%     4 - 5 0 - 2 +6.9 +4.7 +2.2
  Dec 15, 2021 245   Portland W 96-71 94%     5 - 5 +17.9 +19.0 -1.3
  Dec 18, 2021 5   Baylor L 70-78 29%     5 - 6 +8.4 +12.7 -5.3
  Dec 21, 2021 253   Pepperdine W 68-59 94%     6 - 6 +1.6 -10.3 +11.5
  Jan 01, 2022 111   Utah W 79-66 80%     7 - 6 1 - 2 +14.7 +7.4 +7.7
  Jan 10, 2022 124   @ Oregon St. W 78-76 69%     8 - 6 2 - 2 +7.4 +8.5 -1.1
  Jan 13, 2022 12   @ UCLA W 84-81 OT 21%     9 - 6 3 - 2 +22.2 +7.5 +14.2
  Jan 15, 2022 26   @ USC W 79-69 33%     10 - 6 4 - 2 +25.2 +16.2 +9.3
  Jan 20, 2022 52   Washington St. W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 23, 2022 130   Washington W 77-66 85%    
  Jan 25, 2022 69   Colorado W 72-67 71%    
  Jan 29, 2022 124   Oregon St. W 77-67 84%    
  Feb 03, 2022 69   @ Colorado W 70-69 49%    
  Feb 05, 2022 111   @ Utah W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 10, 2022 76   Stanford W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 12, 2022 107   California W 70-61 80%    
  Feb 17, 2022 119   @ Arizona St. W 71-66 65%    
  Feb 19, 2022 2   @ Arizona L 71-82 14%    
  Feb 24, 2022 12   UCLA L 70-74 39%    
  Feb 26, 2022 26   USC W 71-70 54%    
  Mar 03, 2022 130   @ Washington W 75-69 68%    
  Mar 05, 2022 52   @ Washington St. L 69-70 44%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.1 3.6 1.3 0.2 12.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.7 9.2 11.8 5.8 1.4 0.1 31.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.1 9.5 8.4 2.1 0.1 23.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 6.6 5.4 0.9 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.2 3.5 0.6 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.7 8.8 13.9 18.3 18.9 16.3 10.0 5.0 1.3 0.2 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-3 93.0% 1.3    1.0 0.2
16-4 72.7% 3.6    2.2 1.4 0.0
15-5 41.0% 4.1    1.6 2.2 0.3 0.0
14-6 14.6% 2.4    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.1
13-7 2.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.1% 12.1 5.6 5.0 1.2 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.3% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.0% 99.1% 13.3% 85.8% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0%
15-5 10.0% 97.7% 11.1% 86.6% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.7 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.4%
14-6 16.3% 88.7% 8.7% 80.0% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.9 3.8 2.7 0.9 0.1 1.8 87.7%
13-7 18.9% 72.0% 7.2% 64.9% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.4 3.9 2.9 0.6 0.0 5.3 69.9%
12-8 18.3% 47.8% 4.8% 43.1% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.3 1.4 0.1 9.6 45.2%
11-9 13.9% 21.0% 3.0% 18.0% 11.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.1 11.0 18.6%
10-10 8.8% 7.3% 1.7% 5.6% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 8.2 5.7%
9-11 4.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.2%
8-12 1.9% 1.0% 1.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 1.8
7-13 0.6% 0.6
6-14 0.1% 4.6% 4.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 56.8% 6.3% 50.5% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 3.9 6.8 9.7 10.2 9.7 8.2 3.6 0.3 0.0 43.2 53.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.1 23.1 53.8 11.5 11.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 3.4 15.4 33.3 43.6 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.2 8.7 52.2 39.1