USC
Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#26
Expected Predictive Rating+14.8#26
Pace66.7#244
Improvement-4.0#334

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#30
First Shot+2.0#115
After Offensive Rebound+4.8#2
Layup/Dunks+6.6#13
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#160
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#282
Freethrows-1.5#292
Improvement-1.4#266

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#38
First Shot+5.0#38
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#103
Layups/Dunks+2.1#104
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#180
Freethrows+2.0#58
Improvement-2.6#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.7% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 8.6% 12.6% 3.3%
Top 6 Seed 27.7% 36.5% 16.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.5% 88.5% 72.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.4% 87.0% 69.8%
Average Seed 7.6 7.1 8.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.4% 97.0% 86.4%
Conference Champion 8.2% 11.5% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.1% 4.9% 10.0%
First Round78.3% 86.2% 68.0%
Second Round46.9% 53.6% 38.1%
Sweet Sixteen18.3% 21.9% 13.7%
Elite Eight7.4% 8.8% 5.6%
Final Four2.7% 3.2% 1.9%
Championship Game0.9% 1.1% 0.7%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.3%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 56.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 25 - 29 - 7
Quad 310 - 118 - 8
Quad 45 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 296   Cal St. Northridge W 89-49 97%     1 - 0 +29.6 +15.6 +15.4
  Nov 13, 2021 122   @ Temple W 76-71 76%     2 - 0 +10.4 +5.3 +5.1
  Nov 16, 2021 221   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 78-61 88%     3 - 0 +16.7 +5.6 +11.6
  Nov 22, 2021 297   Dixie St. W 98-71 97%     4 - 0 +16.6 +6.5 +6.4
  Nov 25, 2021 157   Saint Joseph's W 70-55 87%     5 - 0 +15.4 -0.2 +16.0
  Nov 26, 2021 33   San Diego St. W 58-43 55%     6 - 0 +26.5 +7.5 +22.1
  Dec 01, 2021 111   Utah W 93-73 85%     7 - 0 1 - 0 +21.7 +16.6 +4.6
  Dec 04, 2021 52   @ Washington St. W 63-61 54%     8 - 0 2 - 0 +13.7 +4.3 +9.6
  Dec 07, 2021 216   Eastern Kentucky W 80-68 94%     9 - 0 +7.0 +1.6 +4.9
  Dec 12, 2021 239   Long Beach St. W 73-62 95%     10 - 0 +4.3 +0.1 +4.7
  Dec 15, 2021 110   UC Irvine W 66-61 85%     11 - 0 +6.8 -1.2 +8.1
  Dec 18, 2021 125   Georgia Tech W 67-53 82%     12 - 0 +16.8 +5.4 +13.0
  Jan 06, 2022 107   @ California W 77-63 71%     13 - 0 3 - 0 +20.9 +17.2 +5.0
  Jan 11, 2022 76   @ Stanford L 69-75 60%     13 - 1 3 - 1 +3.9 +1.3 +2.7
  Jan 13, 2022 124   Oregon St. W 81-71 87%     14 - 1 4 - 1 +10.4 +6.9 +3.5
  Jan 15, 2022 40   Oregon L 69-79 67%     14 - 2 4 - 2 -1.9 +0.5 -2.7
  Jan 20, 2022 69   @ Colorado W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 22, 2022 111   @ Utah W 73-67 69%    
  Jan 24, 2022 119   Arizona St. W 73-61 88%    
  Jan 27, 2022 76   Stanford W 73-65 78%    
  Jan 29, 2022 107   California W 69-58 85%    
  Feb 03, 2022 119   @ Arizona St. W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 05, 2022 2   @ Arizona L 70-79 18%    
  Feb 12, 2022 12   UCLA L 69-71 46%    
  Feb 17, 2022 130   Washington W 76-63 89%    
  Feb 20, 2022 52   Washington St. W 70-64 73%    
  Feb 24, 2022 124   @ Oregon St. W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 26, 2022 40   @ Oregon L 70-71 46%    
  Mar 05, 2022 12   @ UCLA L 67-74 26%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 12 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.3 1.8 0.3 8.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.9 9.4 10.7 3.7 0.4 27.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 3.1 10.0 8.9 2.0 0.1 24.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 8.3 7.3 1.5 0.0 19.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.9 4.3 0.6 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.9 10.2 16.4 20.9 20.4 14.9 7.1 2.2 0.3 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-4 81.1% 1.8    1.2 0.5 0.0
15-5 46.1% 3.3    1.4 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 14.9% 2.2    0.5 1.1 0.5 0.1
13-7 2.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 3.5 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.2% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 3.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 100.0%
15-5 7.1% 99.9% 20.3% 79.6% 4.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 14.9% 99.2% 16.3% 82.9% 5.8 0.0 0.6 1.8 3.7 4.2 2.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
13-7 20.4% 95.9% 12.6% 83.3% 7.3 0.1 0.4 1.8 3.9 4.9 4.3 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.8 95.3%
12-8 20.9% 89.4% 7.6% 81.7% 8.7 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.5 4.1 4.5 3.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 2.2 88.5%
11-9 16.4% 74.3% 6.2% 68.1% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.4 3.1 3.3 0.9 0.0 4.2 72.6%
10-10 10.2% 52.6% 4.2% 48.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.4 1.1 0.0 4.8 50.6%
9-11 4.9% 23.8% 1.9% 21.9% 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 3.8 22.3%
8-12 2.1% 7.2% 1.1% 6.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9 6.2%
7-13 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.5
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 81.5% 10.2% 71.3% 7.6 0.3 0.8 2.5 5.0 8.3 10.8 11.3 11.3 10.5 9.1 8.6 2.9 0.1 18.5 79.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.8 31.0 61.9 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 32.1 37.7 24.5 5.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.5 22.9 20.8 41.7 14.6