Oregon St.
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#124
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#274
Pace67.5#216
Improvement+3.2#52

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#97
First Shot+1.9#117
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#98
Layup/Dunks+3.9#51
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#294
Freethrows-0.7#238
Improvement+3.8#15

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#169
First Shot+0.5#161
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#229
Layups/Dunks-0.1#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#243
Freethrows+0.0#195
Improvement-0.6#210
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 2.0% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.0% 33.2% 59.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington (Home) - 62.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b0 - 41 - 10
Quad 22 - 82 - 17
Quad 33 - 35 - 21
Quad 42 - 27 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 274   Portland St. W 73-64 86%     1 - 0 +0.1 -6.4 +6.0
  Nov 12, 2021 36   @ Iowa St. L 50-60 15%     1 - 1 +3.8 -14.0 +18.0
  Nov 15, 2021 121   @ Tulsa L 58-64 40%     1 - 2 -0.6 -3.5 +2.1
  Nov 18, 2021 237   Samford L 77-78 81%     1 - 3 -7.6 -3.0 -4.6
  Nov 21, 2021 144   Princeton L 80-81 66%     1 - 4 -2.4 +9.8 -12.3
  Nov 26, 2021 49   Wake Forest L 77-80 OT 25%     1 - 5 +6.9 +0.2 +7.0
  Nov 27, 2021 56   Penn St. L 45-60 28%     1 - 6 -6.2 -11.5 +1.5
  Dec 02, 2021 107   @ California L 61-73 35%     1 - 7 0 - 1 -5.1 -0.3 -5.9
  Dec 05, 2021 2   Arizona L 65-90 10%     1 - 8 0 - 2 -8.1 -2.8 -3.9
  Dec 14, 2021 208   UC Davis L 64-71 76%     1 - 9 -11.7 -13.3 +1.8
  Dec 18, 2021 60   Texas A&M L 73-83 38%     1 - 10 -4.0 +6.3 -10.5
  Dec 21, 2021 218   Nicholls St. W 83-61 78%     2 - 10 +16.9 +3.2 +12.6
  Dec 30, 2021 111   Utah W 88-76 54%     3 - 10 1 - 2 +13.7 +11.4 +1.9
  Jan 10, 2022 40   Oregon L 76-78 31%     3 - 11 1 - 3 +6.1 +7.1 -1.1
  Jan 13, 2022 26   @ USC L 71-81 13%     3 - 12 1 - 4 +5.2 +5.4 -0.2
  Jan 15, 2022 12   @ UCLA L 65-81 7%     3 - 13 1 - 5 +3.2 +5.5 -3.4
  Jan 20, 2022 130   Washington W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 22, 2022 52   Washington St. L 67-71 38%    
  Jan 29, 2022 40   @ Oregon L 67-77 16%    
  Feb 03, 2022 111   @ Utah L 70-74 34%    
  Feb 05, 2022 69   @ Colorado L 65-72 23%    
  Feb 09, 2022 107   California W 66-65 56%    
  Feb 12, 2022 76   Stanford L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 17, 2022 2   @ Arizona L 67-86 3%    
  Feb 19, 2022 119   @ Arizona St. L 67-70 37%    
  Feb 24, 2022 26   USC L 67-74 27%    
  Feb 26, 2022 12   UCLA L 66-77 16%    
  Mar 03, 2022 52   @ Washington St. L 64-73 19%    
  Mar 05, 2022 130   @ Washington L 70-72 41%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 3.1 0.8 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 5.4 2.2 0.2 9.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 7.4 3.9 0.4 0.0 13.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 8.0 6.8 0.8 0.0 17.5 10th
11th 0.2 2.4 8.3 8.6 1.8 0.0 21.3 11th
12th 1.2 5.1 10.2 8.5 2.3 0.1 27.5 12th
Total 1.2 5.3 12.7 18.7 20.8 18.2 12.0 6.8 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.3% 6.3% 6.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
10-10 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 1.1
9-11 2.9% 0.8% 0.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 2.9
8-12 6.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 6.8
7-13 12.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.0
6-14 18.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.1
5-15 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.8
4-16 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.7
3-17 12.7% 12.7
2-18 5.3% 5.3
1-19 1.2% 1.2
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%