Utah
Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#111
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#136
Pace67.8#201
Improvement-7.6#358

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#77
First Shot+2.5#101
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#89
Layup/Dunks-1.7#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#98
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#154
Freethrows+2.1#38
Improvement-3.2#336

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#153
First Shot+0.5#162
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#166
Layups/Dunks-1.2#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#93
Freethrows+1.6#78
Improvement-4.4#354
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 11.6 13.6
.500 or above 9.5% 21.7% 6.7%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 5.0% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 35.9% 18.3% 39.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UCLA (Home) - 18.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 8
Quad 22 - 63 - 15
Quad 36 - 49 - 18
Quad 44 - 013 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 141   Abilene Christian W 70-56 70%     1 - 0 +12.9 -0.8 +13.7
  Nov 13, 2021 279   Sacramento St. W 89-56 89%     2 - 0 +23.7 +9.3 +13.0
  Nov 15, 2021 348   Bethune-Cookman W 86-55 96%     3 - 0 +14.5 +11.4 +4.4
  Nov 20, 2021 138   Boston College W 68-61 60%     4 - 0 +8.6 -0.9 +9.8
  Nov 21, 2021 121   Tulsa W 72-58 55%     5 - 0 +16.9 +7.5 +10.7
  Nov 27, 2021 29   BYU L 64-75 30%     5 - 1 -1.3 +2.1 -4.3
  Dec 01, 2021 26   @ USC L 73-93 15%     5 - 2 0 - 1 -4.8 +5.1 -9.3
  Dec 05, 2021 107   California W 66-58 59%     6 - 2 1 - 1 +9.9 +1.2 +9.2
  Dec 08, 2021 57   TCU L 62-76 34%     6 - 3 -5.4 -3.5 -2.1
  Dec 11, 2021 267   Manhattan W 96-62 88%     7 - 3 +25.8 +23.2 +4.2
  Dec 18, 2021 126   @ Missouri L 75-83 47%     7 - 4 -2.9 +5.7 -8.6
  Dec 21, 2021 78   Fresno St. W 55-50 48%     8 - 4 +9.7 -1.0 +11.9
  Dec 30, 2021 124   @ Oregon St. L 76-88 46%     8 - 5 1 - 2 -6.6 +1.8 -7.9
  Jan 01, 2022 40   @ Oregon L 66-79 20%     8 - 6 1 - 3 +0.1 -1.0 +0.7
  Jan 06, 2022 130   Washington L 68-74 66%     8 - 7 1 - 4 -6.1 -0.4 -5.9
  Jan 08, 2022 52   Washington St. L 61-77 41%     8 - 8 1 - 5 -9.3 -4.0 -6.1
  Jan 15, 2022 2   @ Arizona L 64-82 6%     8 - 9 1 - 6 +4.0 -0.5 +5.2
  Jan 17, 2022 119   @ Arizona St. L 62-64 44%     8 - 10 1 - 7 +3.9 -0.1 +3.9
  Jan 20, 2022 12   UCLA L 67-77 18%    
  Jan 22, 2022 26   USC L 67-73 31%    
  Jan 26, 2022 52   @ Washington St. L 66-73 23%    
  Jan 29, 2022 130   @ Washington L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 03, 2022 124   Oregon St. W 74-70 66%    
  Feb 05, 2022 40   Oregon L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 12, 2022 69   @ Colorado L 66-72 27%    
  Feb 17, 2022 76   @ Stanford L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 19, 2022 107   @ California L 64-67 38%    
  Feb 24, 2022 2   Arizona L 70-83 13%    
  Feb 26, 2022 119   Arizona St. W 70-67 63%    
  Mar 05, 2022 69   Colorado L 69-70 48%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 2.0 3.5 1.0 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 2.0 6.0 2.4 0.2 10.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 8.1 5.1 0.4 15.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 8.6 7.5 1.0 0.0 19.1 10th
11th 0.2 2.3 8.6 8.9 1.8 0.1 21.9 11th
12th 0.7 3.8 8.0 6.8 1.9 0.1 0.0 21.3 12th
Total 0.7 4.0 10.3 17.3 21.3 19.7 14.3 7.7 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.3% 9.0% 0.7% 8.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.3%
10-10 1.1% 3.2% 1.6% 1.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.6%
9-11 3.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.2%
8-12 7.7% 0.4% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7
7-13 14.3% 0.5% 0.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.2
6-14 19.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.6
5-15 21.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 21.3
4-16 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.3
3-17 10.3% 10.3
2-18 4.0% 4.0
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%