UCLA
Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.7#12
Expected Predictive Rating+17.4#11
Pace69.2#163
Improvement-2.9#297

Offense
Total Offense+9.0#15
First Shot+6.2#28
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#22
Layup/Dunks+1.7#116
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#15
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#213
Freethrows+0.6#133
Improvement-3.4#340

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#17
First Shot+4.4#50
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#9
Layups/Dunks+0.3#173
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#110
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#120
Freethrows+1.7#70
Improvement+0.5#158
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.9% 2.3% 0.4%
#1 Seed 9.9% 11.4% 2.9%
Top 2 Seed 23.3% 26.2% 10.1%
Top 4 Seed 59.2% 63.7% 39.2%
Top 6 Seed 83.9% 87.0% 70.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.9% 99.2% 97.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.5% 98.9% 96.6%
Average Seed 4.2 4.0 5.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 94.7% 96.8% 85.6%
Conference Champion 11.7% 13.4% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 1.4%
First Round98.7% 99.1% 96.9%
Second Round82.3% 84.1% 74.0%
Sweet Sixteen52.1% 54.4% 42.1%
Elite Eight28.0% 29.7% 20.5%
Final Four14.6% 15.7% 9.7%
Championship Game7.2% 7.8% 4.4%
National Champion3.3% 3.7% 1.8%

Next Game: Utah (Away) - 81.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 33 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 16 - 4
Quad 26 - 212 - 6
Quad 36 - 017 - 6
Quad 45 - 022 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 228   Cal St. Bakersfield W 95-58 97%     1 - 0 +31.1 +13.8 +14.1
  Nov 12, 2021 6   Villanova W 86-77 OT 55%     2 - 0 +24.4 +16.8 +7.2
  Nov 15, 2021 239   Long Beach St. W 100-79 97%     3 - 0 +14.3 +11.9 -0.1
  Nov 17, 2021 313   North Florida W 98-63 99%     4 - 0 +23.8 +15.1 +7.1
  Nov 22, 2021 192   Bellarmine W 75-62 94%     5 - 0 +11.6 -1.3 +12.9
  Nov 23, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 63-83 28%     5 - 1 +2.6 -2.7 +5.6
  Nov 27, 2021 108   @ UNLV W 73-51 82%     6 - 1 +28.8 +14.4 +17.6
  Dec 01, 2021 69   Colorado W 73-61 85%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +17.3 +7.6 +10.4
  Dec 11, 2021 37   @ Marquette W 67-56 63%     8 - 1 +24.2 +4.8 +19.9
  Jan 06, 2022 239   Long Beach St. W 96-78 97%     9 - 1 +11.3 +14.7 -4.4
  Jan 08, 2022 107   @ California W 60-52 82%     10 - 1 2 - 0 +14.9 +0.9 +15.1
  Jan 13, 2022 40   Oregon L 81-84 OT 79%     10 - 2 2 - 1 +5.1 -2.2 +7.7
  Jan 15, 2022 124   Oregon St. W 81-65 93%     11 - 2 3 - 1 +16.4 +12.3 +5.1
  Jan 20, 2022 111   @ Utah W 77-67 82%    
  Jan 22, 2022 69   @ Colorado W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 25, 2022 2   Arizona L 76-77 51%    
  Jan 27, 2022 107   California W 73-58 92%    
  Jan 29, 2022 76   Stanford W 77-65 88%    
  Feb 03, 2022 2   @ Arizona L 74-79 29%    
  Feb 05, 2022 119   @ Arizona St. W 74-63 83%    
  Feb 12, 2022 26   @ USC W 71-69 54%    
  Feb 17, 2022 52   Washington St. W 74-64 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 130   Washington W 80-63 94%    
  Feb 24, 2022 40   @ Oregon W 74-70 61%    
  Feb 26, 2022 124   @ Oregon St. W 77-66 84%    
  Mar 05, 2022 26   USC W 74-67 74%    
Projected Record 20 - 6 12 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.2 2.5 11.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.2 11.1 12.0 3.8 0.0 30.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 3.1 10.1 9.5 2.3 0.1 25.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 7.4 6.6 1.2 0.0 17.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.7 3.4 0.6 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.7 0.4 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.6 7.9 14.6 20.6 22.4 17.7 9.1 2.5 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 99.4% 2.5    2.0 0.5 0.0
15-5 57.5% 5.2    2.4 2.5 0.3 0.0
14-6 18.9% 3.4    0.8 1.6 0.8 0.1
13-7 2.9% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 5.3 4.8 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 2.5% 100.0% 48.8% 51.2% 1.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.1% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 1.7 4.3 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 17.7% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 2.5 3.0 5.8 5.8 2.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-7 22.4% 100.0% 29.8% 70.2% 3.5 0.7 2.9 7.2 7.4 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 20.6% 99.9% 22.0% 77.9% 4.7 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.0 6.3 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 14.6% 99.5% 18.6% 80.8% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.7 4.1 2.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
10-10 7.9% 98.3% 13.8% 84.6% 7.2 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.1%
9-11 3.6% 92.0% 8.5% 83.5% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.3 91.3%
8-12 1.2% 72.6% 6.7% 65.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 70.6%
7-13 0.3% 41.4% 9.5% 32.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 35.3%
6-14 0.0% 17.4% 13.0% 4.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0%
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.9% 26.7% 72.2% 4.2 9.9 13.4 17.5 18.5 14.7 10.0 6.4 3.8 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.1 98.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 1.2 84.4 15.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 1.4 62.5 34.0 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 1.4 66.7 28.5 4.8