Washington
Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#130
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#129
Pace74.8#55
Improvement+4.4#27

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#208
First Shot-1.5#234
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#150
Layup/Dunks-1.6#237
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#119
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#255
Freethrows+1.2#90
Improvement+2.4#51

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#79
First Shot+4.7#46
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#280
Layups/Dunks+2.1#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#263
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#42
Freethrows+0.0#197
Improvement+1.9#73
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.6 12.2
.500 or above 16.4% 27.9% 9.5%
.500 or above in Conference 10.5% 19.1% 5.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.8% 3.4% 15.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 37.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 6
Quad 23 - 44 - 11
Quad 36 - 410 - 15
Quad 43 - 213 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 295   Northern Illinois L 64-71 88%     0 - 1 -17.4 -15.7 -1.1
  Nov 11, 2021 319   Northern Arizona W 73-62 91%     1 - 1 -1.3 -12.7 +10.5
  Nov 15, 2021 204   Texas Southern W 72-65 74%     2 - 1 +2.6 -3.3 +5.7
  Nov 18, 2021 66   Wyoming L 72-77 OT 38%     2 - 2 +0.6 -10.6 +12.0
  Nov 22, 2021 123   George Mason W 77-74 48%     3 - 2 +5.9 +7.7 -1.7
  Nov 23, 2021 98   South Dakota St. W 87-76 37%     4 - 2 +16.8 +6.2 +10.0
  Nov 24, 2021 116   Nevada L 62-81 45%     4 - 3 -15.4 -12.7 -1.7
  Nov 27, 2021 183   Winthrop L 74-82 71%     4 - 4 -11.4 -12.4 +2.0
  Dec 18, 2021 160   Seattle W 64-56 68%     5 - 4 +5.7 -13.4 +18.5
  Dec 21, 2021 128   Utah Valley L 52-68 59%     5 - 5 -16.0 -18.9 +2.4
  Jan 03, 2022 2   @ Arizona L 79-95 4%     5 - 6 0 - 1 +6.0 +10.0 -2.6
  Jan 06, 2022 111   @ Utah W 74-68 34%     6 - 6 1 - 1 +12.7 +5.2 +7.7
  Jan 09, 2022 69   @ Colorado L 64-78 22%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -3.7 -5.3 +2.1
  Jan 12, 2022 107   California W 64-55 52%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +10.9 +0.7 +11.1
  Jan 15, 2022 76   Stanford W 67-64 40%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +7.9 +1.7 +6.4
  Jan 20, 2022 124   @ Oregon St. L 70-73 38%    
  Jan 23, 2022 40   @ Oregon L 66-77 15%    
  Jan 27, 2022 69   Colorado L 67-70 41%    
  Jan 29, 2022 111   Utah W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 03, 2022 107   @ California L 62-67 32%    
  Feb 06, 2022 76   @ Stanford L 66-74 23%    
  Feb 10, 2022 119   Arizona St. W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 12, 2022 2   Arizona L 69-84 10%    
  Feb 17, 2022 26   @ USC L 63-76 11%    
  Feb 19, 2022 12   @ UCLA L 63-80 6%    
  Feb 26, 2022 52   Washington St. L 66-70 36%    
  Mar 03, 2022 40   Oregon L 69-75 32%    
  Mar 05, 2022 124   Oregon St. W 72-70 59%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 2.9 0.9 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 4.9 2.2 0.1 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.8 7.8 4.2 0.5 0.0 15.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.8 10.2 6.6 1.0 0.0 20.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 8.6 6.9 1.0 0.0 18.0 9th
10th 0.5 5.1 6.6 1.1 0.0 13.3 10th
11th 0.2 2.4 4.7 1.4 0.0 8.7 11th
12th 1.2 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.4 12th
Total 1.3 5.2 12.1 19.6 21.1 18.2 12.0 6.5 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 2.6% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 14.0% 14.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 14.0%
12-8 1.0% 7.7% 4.7% 3.0% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.2%
11-9 2.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.4%
10-10 6.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.1%
9-11 12.0% 0.2% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 12.0
8-12 18.2% 0.1% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.1
7-13 21.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 21.1
6-14 19.6% 19.6
5-15 12.1% 12.1
4-16 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.2
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%