Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
204 Texas Southern 34.6%   16   5 - 10 3 - 3 15 - 12 13 - 5 -1.9      -2.4 241 +0.5 154 68.1 192 -5.2 260 -10.3 5
240 Southern 20.8%   7 - 8 3 - 1 16 - 12 12 - 5 -4.3      -3.3 263 -0.9 200 74.2 61 -0.6 181 -1.6 2
268 Jackson St. 14.3%   4 - 12 2 - 3 13 - 16 11 - 7 -5.7      -7.5 340 +1.8 117 63.6 313 -6.4 275 -10.8 6
277 Alcorn St. 12.5%   5 - 12 4 - 1 14 - 16 13 - 5 -6.6      -3.3 266 -3.3 280 68.3 186 -2.9 218 +2.3 1
303 Prairie View 6.1%   2 - 12 2 - 2 9 - 17 9 - 7 -8.3      -2.8 255 -5.5 327 78.1 13 -14.1 338 -13.2 9
320 Florida A&M 3.7%   3 - 11 3 - 2 9 - 18 9 - 9 -10.1      -7.2 337 -2.9 264 68.1 190 -12.9 332 -10.9 7
322 Grambling St. 3.1%   3 - 12 2 - 2 9 - 19 8 - 9 -10.3      -5.7 324 -4.5 309 72.4 80 -10.5 317 -7.5 3
334 Alabama A&M 2.7%   4 - 11 3 - 2 10 - 18 9 - 9 -11.4      -10.6 355 -0.7 193 66.9 235 -11.3 322 -9.9 4
339 Alabama St. 1.8%   4 - 13 3 - 2 10 - 20 9 - 9 -12.2      -7.7 343 -4.5 307 73.6 68 -12.9 333 -11.1 8
348 Bethune-Cookman 0.4%   3 - 13 2 - 3 7 - 22 6 - 12 -14.0      -9.6 353 -4.4 304 67.4 219 -13.9 336 -16.0 11
356 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0%   2 - 15 2 - 4 5 - 24 5 - 13 -19.1      -9.1 351 -10.0 354 68.1 194 -16.9 349 -15.7 10
357 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   1 - 15 1 - 5 3 - 25 3 - 15 -21.5      -10.2 354 -11.3 357 77.3 22 -22.1 355 -21.1 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Texas Southern 2.3 38.9 27.4 16.4 8.7 4.6 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
Southern 2.7 29.2 24.1 19.2 12.0 7.0 4.4 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Jackson St. 3.9 11.5 15.7 19.0 19.9 14.1 9.4 5.4 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 2.2 45.5 23.7 14.8 8.0 4.4 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Prairie View 6.2 1.9 4.1 7.2 10.9 14.1 16.7 15.3 14.2 9.7 4.4 1.5 0.2
Florida A&M 6.2 3.1 5.1 7.4 10.7 12.3 14.4 14.2 13.7 12.6 5.3 1.2 0.0
Grambling St. 6.6 1.1 2.7 5.2 8.9 12.4 14.6 16.1 16.5 14.0 6.4 1.8 0.1
Alabama A&M 5.8 2.5 5.4 9.2 13.3 15.7 15.8 13.9 11.7 8.3 3.4 0.9 0.0
Alabama St. 6.5 1.3 3.1 5.5 9.5 12.6 15.8 15.6 15.4 13.0 6.6 1.7 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 9.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.7 2.6 4.7 7.3 11.5 18.6 33.3 17.3 2.1
Arkansas Pine Bluff 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 3.4 9.3 27.6 43.6 13.8
Mississippi Valley 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 7.9 22.3 68.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Texas Southern 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.6 6.3 13.1 21.4 25.5 21.1 9.1
Southern 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.8 9.9 17.0 22.6 21.2 14.5 6.1 1.5
Jackson St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.8 11.7 18.3 22.2 20.1 12.9 5.1 1.1
Alcorn St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 6.4 12.1 19.1 22.1 19.4 11.9 4.6 0.8
Prairie View 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 6.9 12.2 17.8 20.6 18.1 12.2 6.0 1.9 0.3
Florida A&M 9 - 9 0.2 1.0 3.5 8.1 13.2 17.3 18.6 16.0 11.5 6.6 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.1
Grambling St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.0 9.1 15.6 20.3 20.1 15.2 9.1 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.1
Alabama A&M 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.8 10.2 16.9 20.2 18.7 14.5 8.3 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
Alabama St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.7 3.3 8.7 15.0 19.8 19.7 15.9 10.0 4.6 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 6 - 12 1.9 7.2 14.0 19.1 20.0 16.6 11.2 5.8 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.1
Arkansas Pine Bluff 5 - 13 5.4 19.0 28.1 24.2 14.1 6.4 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 3 - 15 15.9 31.2 27.9 15.8 6.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Texas Southern 38.9% 21.2 12.8 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
Southern 29.2% 15.2 9.9 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
Jackson St. 11.5% 4.6 4.0 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 45.5% 28.2 12.4 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
Prairie View 1.9% 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 3.1% 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Grambling St. 1.1% 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alabama A&M 2.5% 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
Alabama St. 1.3% 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Texas Southern 34.6% 34.6% 0.0% 16   0.1 1.5 6.0 26.9 65.4 0.0%
Southern 20.8% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.8 17.6 79.2 0.0%
Jackson St. 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 14.0 85.7 0.0%
Alcorn St. 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 12.2 87.5 0.0%
Prairie View 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 6.1 93.9 0.0%
Florida A&M 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 3.7 96.3 0.0%
Grambling St. 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 3.1 96.9 0.0%
Alabama A&M 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 2.7 97.3 0.0%
Alabama St. 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 1.8 98.2 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Texas Southern 34.6% 18.6% 26.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern 20.8% 12.6% 14.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 14.3% 12.9% 7.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 12.5% 11.1% 6.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 6.1% 6.1% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 3.7% 3.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 3.1% 3.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 2.7% 2.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 1.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 61.9% 0.6 38.1 61.9
2nd Round 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0