Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#240
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#181
Pace74.2#61
Improvement+2.4#72

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#263
First Shot-3.9#294
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#130
Layup/Dunks-2.7#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#270
Freethrows-0.4#210
Improvement+3.5#19

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#200
First Shot-0.6#191
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#197
Layups/Dunks-2.1#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#178
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#24
Freethrows-3.4#340
Improvement-1.0#236
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.8% 21.1% 13.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 88.5% 89.5% 67.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.7% 98.1% 88.8%
Conference Champion 29.2% 30.0% 12.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.6% 12.7% 11.6%
First Round14.2% 14.5% 7.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 95.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 415 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 86   @ Louisville L 60-72 11%     0 - 1 -2.9 -10.3 +8.2
  Nov 13, 2021 135   @ Tulane W 73-70 20%     1 - 1 +7.5 -1.8 +9.1
  Nov 16, 2021 167   @ Rice L 63-81 26%     1 - 2 -15.6 -17.6 +3.7
  Nov 19, 2021 234   @ South Dakota L 68-71 39%     1 - 3 -4.5 -8.1 +3.7
  Nov 21, 2021 140   @ Nebraska L 59-82 22%     1 - 4 -19.0 -17.9 +1.1
  Nov 28, 2021 308   @ Tennessee St. W 82-80 56%     2 - 4 -3.9 +0.4 -4.4
  Dec 04, 2021 152   @ Akron L 62-79 24%     2 - 5 -13.9 -11.3 -2.5
  Dec 07, 2021 3   @ Kentucky L 64-76 2%     2 - 6 +9.7 +3.5 +5.6
  Dec 11, 2021 304   SE Louisiana W 72-66 73%     3 - 6 -4.8 -9.9 +5.0
  Dec 19, 2021 164   @ Kent St. W 78-76 26%     4 - 6 +4.5 +8.3 -3.8
  Dec 21, 2021 72   @ Dayton L 60-69 10%     4 - 7 +1.0 -4.3 +4.9
  Jan 03, 2022 204   Texas Southern W 63-50 50%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +8.6 -7.3 +16.6
  Jan 08, 2022 320   @ Florida A&M W 80-66 63%     6 - 7 2 - 0 +6.4 +3.1 +2.9
  Jan 10, 2022 348   @ Bethune-Cookman W 69-59 76%     7 - 7 3 - 0 -1.5 -6.4 +5.0
  Jan 15, 2022 322   @ Grambling St. L 77-83 63%     7 - 8 3 - 1 -13.8 +5.6 -19.8
  Jan 22, 2022 356   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 80-63 95%    
  Jan 24, 2022 357   Mississippi Valley W 86-66 97%    
  Jan 29, 2022 277   @ Alcorn St. L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 31, 2022 268   @ Jackson St. L 63-64 44%    
  Feb 05, 2022 334   Alabama A&M W 70-60 83%    
  Feb 07, 2022 339   Alabama St. W 77-67 84%    
  Feb 12, 2022 303   @ Prairie View W 79-77 54%    
  Feb 14, 2022 204   @ Texas Southern L 67-72 31%    
  Feb 19, 2022 322   Grambling St. W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 26, 2022 348   Bethune-Cookman W 74-62 88%    
  Feb 28, 2022 320   Florida A&M W 73-65 79%    
  Mar 03, 2022 339   @ Alabama St. W 75-70 67%    
  Mar 05, 2022 334   @ Alabama A&M W 68-63 65%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.0 8.4 11.2 6.0 1.5 29.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 9.0 10.3 3.2 0.2 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 6.4 9.6 2.4 0.1 19.2 3rd
4th 0.1 3.0 7.1 1.8 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.1 2.0 0.1 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 2.0 0.1 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.2 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.8 9.9 17.0 22.6 21.2 14.5 6.1 1.5 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
15-3 97.3% 6.0    5.1 0.9 0.0
14-4 77.1% 11.2    6.3 4.4 0.5 0.0
13-5 39.8% 8.4    2.2 4.0 1.9 0.3 0.0
12-6 9.1% 2.0    0.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.2% 29.2 15.2 9.9 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.5% 39.1% 39.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9
15-3 6.1% 35.5% 35.5% 15.4 0.1 1.0 1.0 4.0
14-4 14.5% 29.5% 29.5% 15.7 0.0 1.1 3.2 10.2
13-5 21.2% 24.1% 24.1% 15.9 0.4 4.7 16.1
12-6 22.6% 18.4% 18.4% 16.0 0.1 4.1 18.4
11-7 17.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0 0.0 2.7 14.3
10-8 9.9% 12.1% 12.1% 16.0 1.2 8.7
9-9 4.8% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.4 4.4
8-10 1.7% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.1 1.6
7-11 0.5% 0.5
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.8% 20.8% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.8 17.6 79.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 14.5 0.3 3.4 48.3 42.8 5.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%