Florida A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.1#320
Expected Predictive Rating-12.9#332
Pace68.1#190
Improvement-1.3#235

Offense
Total Offense-7.2#337
First Shot-7.7#347
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#138
Layup/Dunks-5.2#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+9.6#1
3 Pt Jumpshots-11.6#358
Freethrows-0.5#224
Improvement+0.9#121

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#264
First Shot+0.0#172
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#347
Layups/Dunks+1.3#133
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#251
Freethrows-1.2#274
Improvement-2.2#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 4.8% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.7% 4.7% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 56.8% 71.9% 42.7%
Conference Champion 3.1% 5.5% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four3.6% 4.7% 2.6%
First Round1.4% 1.9% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 48.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 49 - 109 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 55   @ Kansas St. L 57-67 3%     0 - 1 +1.4 -5.8 +6.9
  Nov 21, 2021 58   @ Miami (FL) L 59-86 4%     0 - 2 -15.9 -11.2 -5.1
  Nov 24, 2021 168   @ UTEP L 53-67 12%     0 - 3 -11.6 -14.9 +3.0
  Nov 26, 2021 143   @ UC Riverside L 49-60 10%     0 - 4 -7.3 -16.0 +8.1
  Dec 07, 2021 221   Florida Gulf Coast L 55-69 32%     0 - 5 -19.3 -22.0 +2.6
  Dec 12, 2021 152   @ Akron L 66-73 11%     0 - 6 -3.9 -4.9 +0.8
  Dec 14, 2021 74   @ Cincinnati L 50-77 4%     0 - 7 -17.1 -14.2 -4.0
  Dec 17, 2021 95   @ Santa Clara L 66-80 5%     0 - 8 -5.6 -4.8 -0.7
  Dec 19, 2021 176   @ UC Santa Barbara L 62-73 13%     0 - 9 -9.1 -11.6 +2.6
  Jan 03, 2022 348   @ Bethune-Cookman L 59-66 56%     0 - 10 0 - 1 -18.5 -14.8 -4.0
  Jan 08, 2022 240   Southern L 66-80 37%     0 - 11 0 - 2 -20.8 -11.1 -9.2
  Jan 10, 2022 322   Grambling St. W 75-66 60%     1 - 11 1 - 2 -3.8 -0.2 -3.2
  Jan 15, 2022 356   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 71-66 OT 73%     2 - 11 2 - 2 -11.5 -11.1 -0.5
  Jan 17, 2022 357   @ Mississippi Valley W 78-70 80%     3 - 11 3 - 2 -11.0 -2.5 -8.2
  Jan 22, 2022 277   Alcorn St. L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 24, 2022 268   Jackson St. L 60-62 45%    
  Jan 29, 2022 334   @ Alabama A&M L 61-62 43%    
  Jan 31, 2022 339   @ Alabama St. L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 05, 2022 204   Texas Southern L 63-69 32%    
  Feb 07, 2022 303   Prairie View W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 12, 2022 268   @ Jackson St. L 57-64 25%    
  Feb 14, 2022 277   @ Alcorn St. L 64-70 28%    
  Feb 19, 2022 339   Alabama St. W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 21, 2022 334   Alabama A&M W 64-60 65%    
  Feb 26, 2022 322   @ Grambling St. L 68-70 39%    
  Feb 28, 2022 240   @ Southern L 65-73 21%    
  Mar 05, 2022 348   Bethune-Cookman W 67-61 74%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 3.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 2.8 1.3 0.1 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.0 2.6 0.2 0.0 7.4 3rd
4th 0.4 4.7 4.9 0.6 10.7 4th
5th 0.2 3.5 7.0 1.5 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 8.4 3.4 0.1 14.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 7.2 5.3 0.3 14.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 5.7 6.2 0.9 13.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.6 5.5 1.3 0.0 12.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.5 8.1 13.2 17.3 18.6 16.0 11.5 6.6 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 87.2% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 46.4% 1.3    0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 8.3% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.1% 3.1 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 16.7% 16.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.2% 20.2% 20.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 1.0% 14.7% 14.7% 16.0 0.1 0.8
13-5 2.9% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.3 2.6
12-6 6.6% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.6 5.9
11-7 11.5% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.9 10.6
10-8 16.0% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.8 15.1
9-9 18.6% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.6 18.0
8-10 17.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 17.1
7-11 13.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.2
6-12 8.1% 8.1
5-13 3.5% 3.5
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.7 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%