Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-19.1#356
Expected Predictive Rating-16.9#349
Pace68.1#194
Improvement+1.0#129

Offense
Total Offense-9.1#351
First Shot-7.5#346
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#295
Layup/Dunks-5.9#343
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#200
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#218
Freethrows-0.3#197
Improvement+0.3#158

Defense
Total Defense-10.0#354
First Shot-7.9#353
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#322
Layups/Dunks-6.7#348
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#139
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#232
Freethrows-0.5#231
Improvement+0.7#147
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.7% 3.9% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 25.9% 9.9% 26.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Away) - 4.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 20 - 00 - 6
Quad 30 - 40 - 11
Quad 45 - 145 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 45   @ Creighton L 77-90 1%     0 - 1 -0.3 +4.2 -3.3
  Nov 12, 2021 47   @ Colorado St. L 71-91 1%     0 - 2 -7.5 -2.5 -4.0
  Nov 14, 2021 66   @ Wyoming L 45-85 1%     0 - 3 -29.4 -23.4 -6.2
  Nov 18, 2021 245   @ Portland L 74-86 7%     0 - 4 -14.1 -4.0 -9.4
  Nov 22, 2021 160   @ Seattle L 56-77 3%     0 - 5 -18.3 -15.9 -2.0
  Nov 24, 2021 176   @ UC Santa Barbara L 58-86 4%     0 - 6 -26.1 -14.6 -11.6
  Nov 26, 2021 260   @ Pacific L 50-74 7%     0 - 7 -26.7 -17.3 -11.8
  Dec 01, 2021 36   @ Iowa St. L 64-83 1%     0 - 8 -5.2 +2.4 -7.9
  Dec 04, 2021 5   @ Baylor L 54-99 0.2%    0 - 9 -23.6 -11.0 -11.4
  Dec 08, 2021 194   Arkansas St. L 73-84 9%     0 - 10 -14.9 -5.1 -9.4
  Dec 14, 2021 17   @ Texas L 31-63 0.4%    0 - 11 -15.2 -27.7 +6.4
  Jan 03, 2022 334   Alabama A&M L 50-70 31%     0 - 12 0 - 1 -33.9 -9.9 -30.0
  Jan 05, 2022 339   Alabama St. W 70-68 34%     1 - 12 1 - 1 -12.7 -0.2 -12.2
  Jan 08, 2022 204   @ Texas Southern L 71-90 4%     1 - 13 1 - 2 -18.4 -1.2 -16.8
  Jan 10, 2022 303   @ Prairie View L 58-75 11%     1 - 14 1 - 3 -22.8 -20.5 -1.8
  Jan 15, 2022 320   Florida A&M L 66-71 OT 27%     1 - 15 1 - 4 -17.6 -11.4 -6.1
  Jan 17, 2022 348   Bethune-Cookman W 69-63 40%     2 - 15 2 - 4 -10.5 -8.8 -1.7
  Jan 22, 2022 240   @ Southern L 63-80 5%    
  Jan 24, 2022 322   @ Grambling St. L 66-77 13%    
  Jan 29, 2022 357   @ Mississippi Valley L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 05, 2022 277   Alcorn St. L 65-75 19%    
  Feb 07, 2022 268   Jackson St. L 57-68 17%    
  Feb 12, 2022 339   @ Alabama St. L 66-75 18%    
  Feb 14, 2022 334   @ Alabama A&M L 59-69 16%    
  Feb 19, 2022 303   Prairie View L 72-80 24%    
  Feb 21, 2022 204   Texas Southern L 61-76 10%    
  Feb 26, 2022 357   Mississippi Valley W 77-72 70%    
  Mar 03, 2022 268   @ Jackson St. L 55-71 7%    
  Mar 05, 2022 277   @ Alcorn St. L 62-77 8%    
Projected Record 5 - 24 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.0 0.7 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 4.4 2.9 0.2 9.3 9th
10th 1.3 6.8 11.5 7.1 1.0 0.0 27.6 10th
11th 0.1 11.3 19.3 10.8 2.0 0.1 43.6 11th
12th 5.3 6.4 1.9 0.2 13.8 12th
Total 5.4 19.0 28.1 24.2 14.1 6.4 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.1% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
9-9 0.6% 0.6
8-10 2.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.1
7-11 6.4% 6.4
6-12 14.1% 14.1
5-13 24.2% 24.2
4-14 28.1% 28.1
3-15 19.0% 19.0
2-16 5.4% 5.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.4%