Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#204
Expected Predictive Rating-5.2#260
Pace68.1#192
Improvement-1.1#220

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#241
First Shot-3.6#280
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#84
Layup/Dunks-1.5#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#291
Freethrows-1.4#284
Improvement-1.2#251

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#154
First Shot+1.2#136
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#240
Layups/Dunks+2.0#107
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#198
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#185
Freethrows-0.7#245
Improvement+0.1#180
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.6% 35.4% 28.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 83.6% 86.3% 64.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.3% 95.7%
Conference Champion 38.9% 41.9% 17.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four18.6% 18.0% 22.5%
First Round26.3% 27.4% 18.6%
Second Round0.8% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Home) - 87.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 20 - 21 - 6
Quad 30 - 21 - 7
Quad 415 - 616 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 40   @ Oregon L 66-83 9%     0 - 1 -3.9 +3.1 -8.4
  Nov 12, 2021 38   @ St. Mary's L 58-67 9%     0 - 2 +4.2 -1.7 +5.5
  Nov 15, 2021 130   @ Washington L 65-72 26%     0 - 3 -2.1 -4.5 +2.6
  Nov 17, 2021 244   @ Air Force L 57-61 50%     0 - 4 -6.0 -8.2 +1.8
  Nov 21, 2021 97   @ North Carolina St. L 57-65 17%     0 - 5 +0.3 -12.9 +13.0
  Nov 24, 2021 29   @ BYU L 64-81 7%     0 - 6 -2.3 -2.7 +0.9
  Dec 01, 2021 82   @ Louisiana Tech L 60-87 14%     0 - 7 -17.4 -9.4 -7.6
  Dec 06, 2021 35   @ Florida W 69-54 8%     1 - 7 +29.0 +6.8 +23.1
  Dec 14, 2021 276   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 70-60 58%     2 - 7 +6.0 -4.0 +10.3
  Jan 03, 2022 240   @ Southern L 50-63 50%     2 - 8 0 - 1 -14.7 -19.9 +4.5
  Jan 05, 2022 322   @ Grambling St. W 67-61 71%     3 - 8 1 - 1 -1.8 -9.4 +7.6
  Jan 08, 2022 356   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 90-71 96%     4 - 8 2 - 1 -2.6 +4.5 -7.4
  Jan 10, 2022 357   Mississippi Valley W 95-58 97%     5 - 8 3 - 1 +13.0 +4.2 +6.7
  Jan 15, 2022 277   Alcorn St. L 72-73 76%     5 - 9 3 - 2 -10.1 +0.3 -10.5
  Jan 17, 2022 268   @ Jackson St. L 58-61 55%     5 - 10 3 - 3 -6.2 -6.1 -0.4
  Jan 22, 2022 334   Alabama A&M W 68-56 88%    
  Jan 24, 2022 339   Alabama St. W 75-62 89%    
  Jan 29, 2022 303   @ Prairie View W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 05, 2022 320   @ Florida A&M W 69-63 68%    
  Feb 07, 2022 348   @ Bethune-Cookman W 70-60 81%    
  Feb 12, 2022 322   Grambling St. W 75-64 85%    
  Feb 14, 2022 240   Southern W 72-67 69%    
  Feb 19, 2022 357   @ Mississippi Valley W 81-64 94%    
  Feb 21, 2022 356   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 76-61 90%    
  Feb 26, 2022 268   Jackson St. W 64-58 74%    
  Feb 28, 2022 277   Alcorn St. W 71-64 76%    
  Mar 05, 2022 303   Prairie View W 78-69 81%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.3 10.8 16.8 8.9 38.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 9.5 12.2 4.2 0.2 27.4 2nd
3rd 0.4 5.2 8.2 2.5 0.1 16.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 5.2 1.3 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.3 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.6 6.3 13.1 21.4 25.5 21.1 9.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 97.6% 8.9    7.7 1.2 0.0
14-4 79.8% 16.8    10.2 6.0 0.6 0.0
13-5 42.4% 10.8    3.1 5.0 2.4 0.3 0.0
12-6 10.8% 2.3    0.1 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 38.9% 38.9 21.2 12.8 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 9.1% 49.2% 49.2% 14.7 0.1 1.3 2.6 0.4 4.6
14-4 21.1% 42.0% 42.0% 15.7 0.2 2.6 6.1 12.2
13-5 25.5% 37.1% 37.1% 15.9 0.0 0.7 8.7 16.0
12-6 21.4% 31.4% 31.4% 16.0 0.1 6.6 14.7
11-7 13.1% 25.8% 25.8% 16.0 0.0 3.3 9.7
10-8 6.3% 19.8% 19.8% 16.0 1.2 5.0
9-9 2.6% 16.3% 16.3% 16.0 0.4 2.1
8-10 0.8% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.1 0.8
7-11 0.2% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 34.6% 34.6% 0.0% 15.7 0.1 1.5 6.0 26.9 65.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.5% 100.0% 14.7 2.7 29.4 58.4 9.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%