Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.2#339
Expected Predictive Rating-12.9#333
Pace73.6#68
Improvement-1.5#243

Offense
Total Offense-7.7#343
First Shot-6.9#338
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#241
Layup/Dunks-1.8#246
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#62
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#338
Freethrows-1.2#277
Improvement-0.6#218

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#307
First Shot-2.1#255
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#333
Layups/Dunks+1.0#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#235
Freethrows-2.8#325
Improvement-0.9#230
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.8% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 1.2% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 52.4% 74.0% 44.9%
Conference Champion 1.3% 3.2% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four1.8% 2.8% 1.4%
First Round0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Away) - 25.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 30 - 20 - 10
Quad 410 - 1110 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 112   @ Western Kentucky L 74-79 5%     0 - 1 +1.7 -5.0 +7.2
  Nov 10, 2021 85   @ Vanderbilt L 72-91 3%     0 - 2 -9.8 -2.2 -5.7
  Nov 13, 2021 77   @ Missouri St. L 60-78 3%     0 - 3 -8.2 -13.4 +6.1
  Nov 16, 2021 36   @ Iowa St. L 60-68 2%     0 - 4 +5.8 -5.7 +11.9
  Nov 18, 2021 21   @ Iowa L 82-108 1%     0 - 5 -10.3 +8.7 -17.7
  Nov 20, 2021 327   NC Central W 80-74 OT 55%     1 - 5 -7.5 -11.4 +2.8
  Nov 28, 2021 298   North Alabama L 69-81 44%     1 - 6 -22.5 -9.0 -12.9
  Dec 01, 2021 72   @ Dayton L 54-93 3%     1 - 7 -29.0 -12.0 -17.8
  Dec 08, 2021 237   Samford L 64-74 29%     1 - 8 -16.6 -21.7 +6.3
  Dec 11, 2021 253   @ Pepperdine L 62-79 18%     1 - 9 -19.4 -12.9 -5.9
  Dec 22, 2021 17   @ Texas L 48-68 1%     1 - 10 -3.2 -12.8 +8.0
  Dec 28, 2021 14   @ Texas Tech L 53-75 1%     1 - 11 -4.1 -9.3 +5.8
  Jan 03, 2022 357   @ Mississippi Valley W 84-75 74%     2 - 11 1 - 0 -10.0 -1.3 -8.9
  Jan 05, 2022 356   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 68-70 66%     2 - 12 1 - 1 -18.5 -5.4 -13.3
  Jan 08, 2022 268   Jackson St. W 72-57 35%     3 - 12 2 - 1 +6.8 +3.3 +4.2
  Jan 10, 2022 277   Alcorn St. L 60-70 38%     3 - 13 2 - 2 -19.1 -16.0 -3.3
  Jan 15, 2022 334   Alabama A&M W 59-55 57%     4 - 13 3 - 2 -9.9 -8.3 -1.1
  Jan 22, 2022 303   @ Prairie View L 74-80 26%    
  Jan 24, 2022 204   @ Texas Southern L 62-75 11%    
  Jan 29, 2022 348   Bethune-Cookman W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 31, 2022 320   Florida A&M W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 05, 2022 322   @ Grambling St. L 70-74 33%    
  Feb 07, 2022 240   @ Southern L 67-77 16%    
  Feb 12, 2022 356   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 75-66 82%    
  Feb 14, 2022 357   Mississippi Valley W 82-70 88%    
  Feb 19, 2022 320   @ Florida A&M L 66-71 32%    
  Feb 21, 2022 348   @ Bethune-Cookman L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 26, 2022 334   @ Alabama A&M L 63-66 36%    
  Mar 03, 2022 240   Southern L 70-75 33%    
  Mar 05, 2022 322   Grambling St. W 72-71 54%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.3 3.9 4.5 0.7 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.2 3.3 7.1 1.9 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.7 9.0 4.0 0.1 15.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 7.9 5.9 0.5 15.6 7th
8th 0.8 6.1 7.4 1.1 15.4 8th
9th 0.6 4.1 6.6 1.6 0.0 13.0 9th
10th 0.2 2.0 3.4 1.0 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.3 8.7 15.0 19.8 19.7 15.9 10.0 4.6 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 93.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 79.3% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 33.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.7% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.1 1.5
12-6 4.6% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.2 4.4
11-7 10.0% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.4 9.6
10-8 15.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.4 15.5
9-9 19.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 19.4
8-10 19.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 19.6
7-11 15.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.9
6-12 8.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.7
5-13 3.3% 3.3
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 16.0 1.8 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%