Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#277
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#218
Pace68.3#186
Improvement+1.0#128

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#266
First Shot-3.9#293
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#131
Layup/Dunks-0.8#198
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#323
Freethrows-1.0#261
Improvement+2.7#42

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#280
First Shot-3.9#299
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#124
Layups/Dunks-2.2#260
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#61
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#177
Freethrows-3.4#341
Improvement-1.7#270
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.5% 14.4% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 33.6% 46.3% 20.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.7% 98.1%
Conference Champion 45.5% 57.7% 32.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.1% 12.3% 9.9%
First Round6.5% 7.8% 5.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Away) - 51.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 41 - 11
Quad 414 - 615 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 52   @ Washington St. L 67-85 5%     0 - 1 -6.3 +2.4 -8.9
  Nov 10, 2021 160   @ Seattle L 66-69 19%     0 - 2 -0.3 -6.1 +5.8
  Nov 13, 2021 245   @ Portland L 58-62 33%     0 - 3 -6.1 -15.8 +9.7
  Nov 15, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 57-84 1%     0 - 4 -1.9 -8.0 +6.7
  Nov 26, 2021 133   @ Southern Illinois L 59-62 15%     0 - 5 +1.6 +0.4 +0.6
  Nov 28, 2021 269   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 61-57 37%     1 - 5 +0.7 -11.3 +12.2
  Dec 04, 2021 135   @ Tulane L 64-85 15%     1 - 6 -16.5 -4.7 -12.3
  Dec 06, 2021 9   @ Houston L 45-77 2%     1 - 7 -12.0 -17.6 +4.8
  Dec 14, 2021 87   @ Wichita St. L 63-82 8%     1 - 8 -9.9 -1.9 -8.2
  Dec 16, 2021 121   @ Tulsa L 62-83 13%     1 - 9 -15.6 -5.7 -10.5
  Dec 20, 2021 5   @ Baylor L 57-94 1%     1 - 10 -15.6 -7.1 -8.2
  Dec 22, 2021 30   @ Oklahoma L 48-72 4%     1 - 11 -9.5 -13.5 +2.2
  Jan 05, 2022 268   @ Jackson St. W 65-50 37%     2 - 11 1 - 0 +11.8 +2.4 +11.0
  Jan 08, 2022 334   @ Alabama A&M W 78-71 59%     3 - 11 2 - 0 -1.9 +1.1 -3.4
  Jan 10, 2022 339   @ Alabama St. W 70-60 62%     4 - 11 3 - 0 +0.4 -4.4 +5.0
  Jan 15, 2022 204   @ Texas Southern W 73-72 24%     5 - 11 4 - 0 +1.6 +7.6 -5.9
  Jan 17, 2022 303   Prairie View L 73-74 66%     5 - 12 4 - 1 -11.8 -4.9 -6.9
  Jan 22, 2022 320   @ Florida A&M W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 24, 2022 348   @ Bethune-Cookman W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 29, 2022 240   Southern W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 31, 2022 322   Grambling St. W 74-68 73%    
  Feb 05, 2022 356   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 07, 2022 357   @ Mississippi Valley W 80-68 87%    
  Feb 12, 2022 348   Bethune-Cookman W 71-61 84%    
  Feb 14, 2022 320   Florida A&M W 70-64 72%    
  Feb 19, 2022 268   Jackson St. W 64-62 58%    
  Feb 26, 2022 303   @ Prairie View L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 28, 2022 204   @ Texas Southern L 64-71 24%    
  Mar 03, 2022 357   Mississippi Valley W 83-66 95%    
  Mar 05, 2022 356   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 77-62 92%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.1 9.8 16.2 11.8 4.6 0.8 45.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 8.6 10.4 3.1 0.1 23.7 2nd
3rd 0.5 5.1 7.2 1.9 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 4.5 1.1 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.0 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 6.4 12.1 19.1 22.1 19.4 11.9 4.6 0.8 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
16-2 100.0% 4.6    4.6 0.0
15-3 99.2% 11.8    10.4 1.4 0.0
14-4 83.6% 16.2    9.7 5.9 0.7 0.0
13-5 44.5% 9.8    2.6 4.5 2.4 0.3 0.0
12-6 11.1% 2.1    0.1 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 45.5% 45.5 28.2 12.4 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.8% 30.3% 30.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6
16-2 4.6% 22.4% 22.4% 15.9 0.1 0.9 3.6
15-3 11.9% 19.8% 19.8% 16.0 0.1 2.3 9.6
14-4 19.4% 15.6% 15.6% 16.0 0.0 3.0 16.4
13-5 22.1% 13.1% 13.1% 16.0 2.9 19.2
12-6 19.1% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 1.7 17.4
11-7 12.1% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.8 11.3
10-8 6.4% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.3 6.1
9-9 2.5% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.1 2.4
8-10 0.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 12.2 87.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 15.4 3.2 52.8 44.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%