Mississippi Valley
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-21.5#357
Expected Predictive Rating-22.1#355
Pace77.3#22
Improvement+2.3#78

Offense
Total Offense-10.2#354
First Shot-7.3#343
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#336
Layup/Dunks-4.4#324
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#191
Freethrows-2.7#337
Improvement+0.6#138

Defense
Total Defense-11.3#357
First Shot-9.0#355
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#335
Layups/Dunks-2.2#261
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#191
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#339
Freethrows-2.2#305
Improvement+1.6#86
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 82.4% 63.3% 84.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Away) - 9.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 43 - 173 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 92   @ St. John's L 61-119 1%     0 - 1 -49.2 -18.4 -21.3
  Nov 13, 2021 236   @ California Baptist L 66-95 4%     0 - 2 -30.5 -15.8 -11.5
  Nov 26, 2021 109   @ Mississippi L 58-73 1%     0 - 3 -8.2 -2.0 -8.0
  Nov 29, 2021 85   @ Vanderbilt L 36-75 1%     0 - 4 -29.8 -30.8 +1.0
  Dec 01, 2021 298   @ North Alabama L 58-72 8%     0 - 5 -19.5 -15.1 -4.1
  Dec 04, 2021 96   @ Grand Canyon L 44-91 1%     0 - 6 -38.6 -24.8 -14.0
  Dec 09, 2021 218   Nicholls St. L 80-95 7%     0 - 7 -20.1 -6.8 -11.2
  Dec 11, 2021 194   Arkansas St. L 77-82 6%     0 - 8 -8.9 -7.7 -0.6
  Dec 18, 2021 218   @ Nicholls St. L 73-104 3%     0 - 9 -31.1 -4.9 -24.2
  Dec 22, 2021 50   @ UAB L 58-100 1%     0 - 10 -30.0 -15.9 -9.4
  Jan 03, 2022 339   Alabama St. L 75-84 26%     0 - 11 0 - 1 -23.7 -5.8 -17.6
  Jan 05, 2022 334   Alabama A&M L 67-72 23%     0 - 12 0 - 2 -18.9 -11.4 -7.2
  Jan 08, 2022 303   @ Prairie View W 84-82 OT 8%     1 - 12 1 - 2 -3.8 -9.1 +5.0
  Jan 10, 2022 204   @ Texas Southern L 58-95 3%     1 - 13 1 - 3 -36.4 -16.4 -17.8
  Jan 15, 2022 348   Bethune-Cookman L 60-62 32%     1 - 14 1 - 4 -18.5 -17.5 -1.0
  Jan 17, 2022 320   Florida A&M L 70-78 20%     1 - 15 1 - 5 -20.6 -4.9 -16.0
  Jan 22, 2022 322   @ Grambling St. L 69-83 9%    
  Jan 24, 2022 240   @ Southern L 66-86 3%    
  Jan 29, 2022 356   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 05, 2022 268   Jackson St. L 60-73 11%    
  Feb 07, 2022 277   Alcorn St. L 68-80 13%    
  Feb 12, 2022 334   @ Alabama A&M L 62-75 11%    
  Feb 14, 2022 339   @ Alabama St. L 70-82 12%    
  Feb 19, 2022 204   Texas Southern L 64-81 6%    
  Feb 19, 2022 303   Prairie View L 76-87 17%    
  Feb 26, 2022 356   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 72-77 30%    
  Mar 03, 2022 277   @ Alcorn St. L 66-83 5%    
  Mar 05, 2022 268   @ Jackson St. L 58-76 4%    
Projected Record 3 - 25 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.9 2.9 3.1 1.0 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.7 9.2 9.3 2.9 0.2 0.0 22.3 11th
12th 15.9 30.5 17.8 3.5 0.3 68.1 12th
Total 15.9 31.2 27.9 15.8 6.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 0.5% 0.5
6-12 2.0% 2.0
5-13 6.6% 6.6
4-14 15.8% 15.8
3-15 27.9% 27.9
2-16 31.2% 31.2
1-17 15.9% 15.9
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 15.9%