Jackson St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#268
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#275
Pace63.6#313
Improvement-2.2#272

Offense
Total Offense-7.5#340
First Shot-7.4#344
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#196
Layup/Dunks-3.4#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#14
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#311
Freethrows-3.9#356
Improvement-1.1#247

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#117
First Shot+2.2#109
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#206
Layups/Dunks+1.8#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#142
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#65
Freethrows-3.2#337
Improvement-1.1#245
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 15.7% 11.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 29.1% 36.3% 12.7%
.500 or above in Conference 91.4% 95.6% 81.7%
Conference Champion 11.5% 14.8% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four12.9% 13.8% 11.0%
First Round7.7% 8.5% 5.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Away) - 69.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 32 - 22 - 9
Quad 412 - 814 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 11   @ Illinois L 47-71 2%     0 - 1 -4.8 -16.1 +10.3
  Nov 12, 2021 82   @ Louisiana Tech L 68-70 8%     0 - 2 +7.6 -3.1 +10.8
  Nov 16, 2021 236   @ California Baptist L 64-77 34%     0 - 3 -14.5 -4.7 -10.9
  Nov 21, 2021 200   @ Marshall L 66-80 26%     0 - 4 -13.1 -9.1 -3.7
  Nov 23, 2021 27   @ Indiana L 35-70 4%     0 - 5 -19.9 -25.4 +2.3
  Nov 27, 2021 165   @ Louisiana W 75-70 22%     1 - 5 +7.5 +0.0 +7.2
  Nov 30, 2021 37   @ Marquette L 54-83 5%     1 - 6 -15.8 -16.9 +4.1
  Dec 04, 2021 202   @ Illinois St. W 61-55 26%     2 - 6 +6.8 -11.4 +18.6
  Dec 12, 2021 36   @ Iowa St. L 37-47 5%     2 - 7 +3.8 -20.1 +22.4
  Dec 14, 2021 101   @ Northern Iowa L 56-66 11%     2 - 8 -2.5 -5.8 +1.7
  Dec 16, 2021 106   @ Drake L 65-70 OT 12%     2 - 9 +2.0 -5.1 +7.0
  Jan 05, 2022 277   Alcorn St. L 50-65 63%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -24.1 -21.8 -3.9
  Jan 08, 2022 339   @ Alabama St. L 57-72 65%     2 - 11 0 - 2 -24.6 -16.2 -9.2
  Jan 10, 2022 334   @ Alabama A&M L 58-60 62%     2 - 12 0 - 3 -10.9 -15.1 +4.3
  Jan 15, 2022 303   Prairie View W 74-63 69%     3 - 12 1 - 3 +0.2 +4.1 -2.5
  Jan 17, 2022 204   Texas Southern W 61-58 45%     4 - 12 2 - 3 -1.4 -6.7 +5.6
  Jan 22, 2022 348   @ Bethune-Cookman W 63-57 70%    
  Jan 24, 2022 320   @ Florida A&M W 62-60 55%    
  Jan 29, 2022 322   Grambling St. W 67-60 76%    
  Jan 31, 2022 240   Southern W 64-63 56%    
  Feb 05, 2022 357   @ Mississippi Valley W 73-60 89%    
  Feb 07, 2022 356   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 68-57 83%    
  Feb 12, 2022 320   Florida A&M W 64-57 75%    
  Feb 14, 2022 348   Bethune-Cookman W 65-54 85%    
  Feb 19, 2022 277   @ Alcorn St. L 62-64 42%    
  Feb 26, 2022 204   @ Texas Southern L 58-64 26%    
  Feb 28, 2022 303   @ Prairie View W 69-68 48%    
  Mar 03, 2022 356   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 71-55 93%    
  Mar 05, 2022 357   Mississippi Valley W 76-58 96%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 4.9 4.1 1.0 11.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 7.1 6.3 1.0 0.0 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 7.5 9.0 1.7 0.0 19.0 3rd
4th 0.4 6.3 10.6 2.5 0.1 19.9 4th
5th 0.1 3.0 8.3 2.5 0.1 14.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.4 2.7 0.1 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 2.5 0.2 5.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.3 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.8 11.7 18.3 22.2 20.1 12.9 5.1 1.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 99.4% 1.0    1.0 0.1
14-4 80.5% 4.1    2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 37.7% 4.9    1.2 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 7.0% 1.4    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.5% 11.5 4.6 4.0 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.1% 35.0% 35.0% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.7
14-4 5.1% 27.6% 27.6% 15.9 0.1 1.3 3.7
13-5 12.9% 22.0% 22.0% 16.0 0.0 2.8 10.1
12-6 20.1% 17.8% 17.8% 16.0 0.0 3.6 16.6
11-7 22.2% 13.3% 13.3% 16.0 3.0 19.2
10-8 18.3% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 2.0 16.4
9-9 11.7% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.9 10.7
8-10 5.8% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.2 5.5
7-11 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 2.0
6-12 0.6% 0.6
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 14.0 85.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 15.3 4.9 58.2 37.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%