SMU
American Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.7#104
Achievement Rating+0.5#160
Pace62.0#332
Improvement+0.5#169

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#33
First Shot+3.4#69
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#13
Layup/Dunks+1.0#147
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#96
Freethrows-1.5#280
Improvement+1.0#140

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#227
First Shot-0.1#177
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#319
Layups/Dunks+3.1#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#88
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#345
Freethrows+1.3#84
Improvement-0.5#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.5% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.4 14.2
.500 or above 30.7% 43.8% 13.9%
.500 or above in Conference 3.2% 5.4% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.2% 1.5% 0.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Connecticut (Home) - 56.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2018 331   Northwestern St. W 69-58 95%     1 - 0 -3.3 -1.1 -1.0
  Nov 11, 2018 127   Southern Miss L 64-74 66%     1 - 1 -9.6 +2.5 -13.8
  Nov 14, 2018 289   Western Carolina W 98-65 91%     2 - 1 +23.0 +13.6 +7.5
  Nov 17, 2018 48   Lipscomb L 73-79 43%     2 - 2 +0.6 -0.6 +1.6
  Nov 20, 2018 156   Bradley L 62-75 66%     2 - 3 -12.6 -4.6 -8.8
  Nov 21, 2018 141   Wright St. W 77-76 61%     3 - 3 +2.8 +14.3 -11.4
  Nov 27, 2018 245   Lamar W 79-65 87%     4 - 3 +6.3 +2.4 +4.1
  Nov 29, 2018 324   McNeese St. W 91-59 94%     5 - 3 +18.6 +20.7 +2.0
  Dec 02, 2018 280   Oral Roberts W 79-67 90%     6 - 3 +2.5 +13.7 -8.9
  Dec 05, 2018 37   TCU L 59-67 35%     6 - 4 +0.5 -1.9 +1.3
  Dec 15, 2018 68   @ Georgetown W 81-73 31%     7 - 4 +17.9 +9.5 +8.2
  Dec 22, 2018 210   Cornell W 81-53 84%     8 - 4 +22.3 +10.8 +13.3
  Jan 02, 2019 267   East Carolina W 82-54 89%     9 - 4 1 - 0 +19.3 +5.5 +13.2
  Jan 04, 2019 290   @ Tulane W 74-65 81%     10 - 4 2 - 0 +4.5 +0.9 +3.6
  Jan 10, 2019 83   @ Connecticut L 64-76 35%     10 - 5 2 - 1 -3.2 +4.6 -9.7
  Jan 12, 2019 96   Tulsa W 77-57 59%     11 - 5 3 - 1 +22.3 +10.9 +12.6
  Jan 16, 2019 20   Houston L 58-69 24%     11 - 6 3 - 2 +1.2 +5.0 -6.1
  Jan 19, 2019 76   @ Memphis L 61-83 33%     11 - 7 3 - 3 -12.8 -12.4 +1.3
  Jan 26, 2019 290   Tulane W 85-75 91%     12 - 7 4 - 3 +0.0 +9.1 -9.1
  Jan 30, 2019 112   @ Wichita St. L 83-85 42%     12 - 8 4 - 4 +4.9 +19.6 -14.8
  Feb 02, 2019 31   @ Cincinnati L 68-73 17%     12 - 9 4 - 5 +10.1 +9.6 +0.0
  Feb 07, 2019 118   South Florida L 66-67 64%     12 - 10 4 - 6 +0.0 +9.5 -9.7
  Feb 10, 2019 52   Central Florida L 65-71 43%     12 - 11 4 - 7 +0.4 +2.0 -2.1
  Feb 13, 2019 70   @ Temple L 74-82 31%     12 - 12 4 - 8 +1.8 +10.3 -8.9
  Feb 21, 2019 83   Connecticut W 74-73 56%    
  Feb 24, 2019 52   @ Central Florida L 65-72 24%    
  Feb 27, 2019 31   Cincinnati L 65-70 33%    
  Mar 03, 2019 112   Wichita St. W 73-70 63%    
  Mar 07, 2019 20   @ Houston L 62-75 11%    
  Mar 10, 2019 118   @ South Florida L 67-69 42%    
Projected Record 14.3 - 15.7 6.3 - 11.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.3 4.1 0.7 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 5.1 5.7 0.1 11.0 8th
9th 0.8 9.3 15.8 1.7 0.0 27.6 9th
10th 4.9 19.3 22.6 5.6 0.0 52.5 10th
11th 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 12th
Total 5.4 20.3 32.1 26.8 12.2 2.9 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.3% 7.9% 7.5% 0.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4%
9-9 2.9% 3.7% 3.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.8
8-10 12.2% 2.0% 2.0% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.0
7-11 26.8% 1.4% 1.4% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 26.4
6-12 32.1% 1.0% 1.0% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 31.8
5-13 20.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 20.2
4-14 5.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 5.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 4.2% 12.0 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 3.2%