SMU
American Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#115
Achievement Rating-0.8#183
Pace61.2#346
Improvement+2.6#29

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#51
First Shot+0.4#174
After Offensive Rebound+4.6#9
Layup/Dunks+1.3#138
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#162
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#136
Freethrows-2.3#291
Improvement+0.9#95

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#189
First Shot+1.4#131
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#307
Layups/Dunks+4.7#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#86
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#335
Freethrows+1.2#122
Improvement+1.7#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 6.0% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.4% 2.8% 0.8%
Average Seed 11.7 11.3 12.1
.500 or above 59.8% 75.4% 52.2%
.500 or above in Conference 47.7% 55.0% 44.1%
Conference Champion 2.0% 2.9% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.2% 3.6%
First Four0.9% 1.5% 0.5%
First Round3.5% 5.2% 2.7%
Second Round1.0% 1.6% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 32.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2018 346   Northwestern St. W 69-58 97%     1 - 0 -8.1 -3.1 -3.8
  Nov 11, 2018 149   Southern Miss L 64-74 73%     1 - 1 -12.3 +0.7 -14.7
  Nov 14, 2018 294   Western Carolina W 98-65 91%     2 - 1 +22.6 +15.9 +4.8
  Nov 17, 2018 74   Lipscomb L 73-79 52%     2 - 2 -2.5 -2.5 +0.5
  Nov 20, 2018 128   Bradley L 62-75 55%     2 - 3 -10.2 -4.4 -6.6
  Nov 21, 2018 144   Wright St. W 77-76 60%     3 - 3 +2.5 +13.1 -10.5
  Nov 27, 2018 229   Lamar W 79-65 85%     4 - 3 +6.9 +3.3 +3.7
  Nov 29, 2018 311   McNeese St. W 91-59 92%     5 - 3 +20.3 +23.1 +1.4
  Dec 02, 2018 320   Oral Roberts W 79-67 93%     6 - 3 -0.9 +13.1 -11.7
  Dec 05, 2018 30   TCU L 59-67 30%     6 - 4 +1.5 -0.8 +1.2
  Dec 15, 2018 87   @ Georgetown L 73-78 33%    
  Dec 22, 2018 231   Cornell W 76-65 85%    
  Jan 02, 2019 257   East Carolina W 76-63 88%    
  Jan 04, 2019 218   @ Tulane W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 10, 2019 77   @ Connecticut L 71-76 31%    
  Jan 12, 2019 118   Tulsa W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 16, 2019 33   Houston L 62-67 33%    
  Jan 19, 2019 116   @ Memphis L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 26, 2019 218   Tulane W 76-66 82%    
  Jan 30, 2019 114   @ Wichita St. L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 02, 2019 26   @ Cincinnati L 58-70 14%    
  Feb 07, 2019 191   South Florida W 70-61 79%    
  Feb 10, 2019 41   Central Florida L 63-66 38%    
  Feb 13, 2019 68   @ Temple L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 21, 2019 77   Connecticut W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 24, 2019 41   @ Central Florida L 60-69 20%    
  Feb 27, 2019 26   Cincinnati L 61-67 30%    
  Mar 03, 2019 114   Wichita St. W 72-69 60%    
  Mar 07, 2019 33   @ Houston L 59-70 17%    
  Mar 10, 2019 191   @ South Florida W 67-64 60%    
Projected Record 15.6 - 14.4 8.4 - 9.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.3 1.5 0.1 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.7 2.3 0.2 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.3 3.5 0.3 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.4 6.8 4.3 0.5 0.0 14.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.3 4.9 0.8 0.0 14.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.1 4.3 0.9 0.0 12.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 8.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.6 6.7 10.5 13.9 15.6 14.6 12.6 9.2 5.8 3.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 96.4% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 80.9% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 49.8% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 90.6% 25.0% 65.6% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.5%
16-2 0.2% 77.8% 24.0% 53.9% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.9%
15-3 0.6% 55.6% 16.1% 39.5% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 47.1%
14-4 1.4% 37.8% 14.4% 23.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 27.2%
13-5 3.2% 21.3% 10.2% 11.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 12.3%
12-6 5.8% 11.1% 7.0% 4.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.2 4.3%
11-7 9.2% 6.2% 5.2% 1.0% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.6 1.1%
10-8 12.6% 3.5% 3.3% 0.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.2 0.2%
9-9 14.6% 1.9% 1.9% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.3
8-10 15.6% 1.1% 1.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 15.4
7-11 13.9% 0.7% 0.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.8
6-12 10.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4
5-13 6.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 6.7
4-14 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.0% 2.6% 1.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 96.0 1.4%