Memphis
American Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#76
Achievement Rating+5.7#100
Pace84.3#7
Improvement+0.7#152

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#66
First Shot+2.9#90
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#96
Layup/Dunks+5.9#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#229
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#257
Freethrows+0.3#159
Improvement-0.3#200

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#103
First Shot+2.4#97
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#175
Layups/Dunks+2.1#88
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#222
Freethrows-0.8#234
Improvement+1.0#119
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 4.6% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 12.0
.500 or above 99.6% 100.0% 94.2%
.500 or above in Conference 91.6% 93.4% 63.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
First Round4.0% 4.1% 2.7%
Second Round0.9% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Home) - 93.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 329   Tennessee Tech W 76-61 96%     1 - 0 +0.9 -8.6 +7.8
  Nov 13, 2018 23   @ LSU L 76-85 16%     1 - 1 +8.0 +5.9 +2.4
  Nov 17, 2018 87   Yale W 109-102 63%     2 - 1 +10.1 +7.8 +0.3
  Nov 22, 2018 90   Oklahoma St. L 64-84 54%     2 - 2 -14.5 -9.5 -3.2
  Nov 23, 2018 239   Canisius W 71-63 85%     3 - 2 +3.4 -4.8 +8.2
  Nov 25, 2018 128   College of Charleston L 75-78 63%     3 - 3 +0.0 -0.5 +0.6
  Dec 01, 2018 9   Texas Tech L 67-78 16%     3 - 4 +6.0 +2.8 +3.9
  Dec 04, 2018 77   South Dakota St. W 88-80 61%     4 - 4 +11.6 +2.9 +7.7
  Dec 08, 2018 164   UAB W 94-76 81%     5 - 4 +15.2 +13.9 +0.3
  Dec 15, 2018 7   Tennessee L 92-102 17%     5 - 5 +6.8 +12.4 -4.4
  Dec 19, 2018 205   Arkansas Little Rock W 99-89 86%     6 - 5 +4.6 +7.6 -4.9
  Dec 22, 2018 308   Tennessee St. W 99-41 94%     7 - 5 +46.6 +2.9 +32.3
  Dec 29, 2018 325   Florida A&M W 96-65 96%     8 - 5 +17.6 +16.6 -0.2
  Jan 03, 2019 110   Wichita St. W 85-74 69%     9 - 5 1 - 0 +12.2 +6.9 +4.5
  Jan 06, 2019 20   @ Houston L 77-90 15%     9 - 6 1 - 1 +4.2 +9.2 -4.3
  Jan 10, 2019 266   East Carolina W 78-72 91%     10 - 6 2 - 1 -2.8 -1.3 -1.8
  Jan 13, 2019 291   @ Tulane W 83-79 85%     11 - 6 3 - 1 -0.3 +4.9 -5.4
  Jan 19, 2019 103   SMU W 83-61 67%     12 - 6 4 - 1 +24.0 +0.7 +21.6
  Jan 24, 2019 69   @ Temple L 76-85 37%     12 - 7 4 - 2 +0.8 -3.2 +5.4
  Jan 27, 2019 52   Central Florida W 77-57 50%     13 - 7 5 - 2 +26.5 +10.0 +17.1
  Jan 30, 2019 99   @ Tulsa L 79-95 45%     13 - 8 5 - 3 -8.2 -1.2 -5.0
  Feb 02, 2019 118   @ South Florida L 78-84 50%     13 - 9 5 - 4 +0.5 -0.5 +1.9
  Feb 07, 2019 31   Cincinnati L 64-69 38%     13 - 10 5 - 5 +4.6 +1.1 +3.1
  Feb 10, 2019 84   Connecticut W 78-71 62%     14 - 10 6 - 5 +10.3 +5.0 +5.1
  Feb 13, 2019 266   @ East Carolina W 79-69 82%     15 - 10 7 - 5 +6.6 +6.3 +0.3
  Feb 16, 2019 52   @ Central Florida L 72-79 30%     15 - 11 7 - 6 +4.9 +2.2 +3.0
  Feb 20, 2019 291   Tulane W 87-71 94%    
  Feb 23, 2019 110   @ Wichita St. L 78-79 48%    
  Feb 26, 2019 69   Temple W 81-79 58%    
  Mar 02, 2019 31   @ Cincinnati L 69-78 20%    
  Mar 09, 2019 99   Tulsa W 81-77 66%    
Projected Record 17.9 - 13.1 9.9 - 8.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.7 1.3 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 9.4 2.2 11.6 4th
5th 0.1 3.0 11.7 0.4 15.2 5th
6th 0.1 4.9 21.5 0.8 27.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 12.9 11.7 0.0 26.0 7th
8th 0.1 3.9 7.9 1.4 13.3 8th
9th 0.3 2.4 1.4 0.1 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.5 8.0 27.2 37.7 22.6 4.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 4.1% 17.9% 8.6% 9.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.4 10.2%
11-7 22.6% 6.3% 4.5% 1.8% 11.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 21.2 1.9%
10-8 37.7% 3.3% 3.0% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 36.4 0.3%
9-9 27.2% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 26.3 0.0%
8-10 8.0% 2.8% 2.8% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.7
7-11 0.5% 2.1% 2.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.5% 3.6% 0.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 95.5 0.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 9.8 0.6 2.3 9.1 26.1 33.0 26.1 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 25.9% 11.2 0.3 1.2 3.7 10.4 8.4 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 11.0% 11.6 1.2 3.3 5.4 1.2
Lose Out 0.1%