Memphis
American Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#116
Achievement Rating+4.4#124
Pace79.7#21
Improvement+2.8#20

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#106
First Shot+0.1#181
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#49
Layup/Dunks+2.9#92
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#98
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#307
Freethrows+0.6#142
Improvement+2.0#34

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#126
First Shot+1.8#117
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#200
Layups/Dunks+2.4#95
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#23
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#249
Freethrows-1.4#260
Improvement+0.8#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.1% 15.8% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.5% 12.3% 3.1%
Average Seed 10.7 10.1 11.1
.500 or above 67.0% 84.8% 63.8%
.500 or above in Conference 53.9% 64.0% 52.0%
Conference Champion 2.5% 4.2% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 1.7% 3.2%
First Four2.0% 4.5% 1.6%
First Round5.9% 13.1% 4.6%
Second Round1.8% 4.6% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 1.1% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee (Home) - 15.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 334   Tennessee Tech W 76-61 95%     1 - 0 -0.1 -10.9 +8.9
  Nov 13, 2018 51   @ LSU L 76-85 21%     1 - 1 +3.5 +3.5 +0.3
  Nov 17, 2018 101   Yale W 109-102 57%     2 - 1 +9.1 +6.1 +1.0
  Nov 22, 2018 73   Oklahoma St. L 64-84 39%     2 - 2 -13.1 -9.8 -1.4
  Nov 23, 2018 227   Canisius W 71-63 78%     3 - 2 +4.0 -2.2 +6.2
  Nov 25, 2018 123   College of Charleston L 75-78 53%     3 - 3 +0.4 +0.9 -0.5
  Dec 01, 2018 12   Texas Tech L 67-78 14%     3 - 4 +4.6 +0.4 +4.9
  Dec 04, 2018 82   South Dakota St. W 88-80 53%     4 - 4 +11.4 +1.9 +8.4
  Dec 08, 2018 216   UAB W 94-76 83%     5 - 4 +11.8 +13.0 -2.2
  Dec 15, 2018 9   Tennessee L 71-82 15%    
  Dec 19, 2018 238   Arkansas Little Rock W 84-72 87%    
  Dec 22, 2018 276   Tennessee St. W 83-70 90%    
  Dec 29, 2018 337   Florida A&M W 83-63 97%    
  Jan 03, 2019 115   Wichita St. W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 06, 2019 33   @ Houston L 65-76 16%    
  Jan 10, 2019 259   East Carolina W 84-71 88%    
  Jan 13, 2019 212   @ Tulane W 80-76 64%    
  Jan 19, 2019 114   SMU W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 24, 2019 68   @ Temple L 73-79 29%    
  Jan 27, 2019 43   Central Florida L 70-73 38%    
  Jan 30, 2019 120   @ Tulsa L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 02, 2019 193   @ South Florida W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 07, 2019 25   Cincinnati L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 10, 2019 78   Connecticut W 83-82 52%    
  Feb 13, 2019 259   @ East Carolina W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 16, 2019 43   @ Central Florida L 67-76 20%    
  Feb 20, 2019 212   Tulane W 83-73 81%    
  Feb 23, 2019 115   @ Wichita St. L 76-79 39%    
  Feb 26, 2019 68   Temple L 75-76 50%    
  Mar 02, 2019 25   @ Cincinnati L 64-76 15%    
  Mar 09, 2019 120   Tulsa W 78-75 62%    
Projected Record 16.7 - 14.3 8.8 - 9.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.9 2.7 0.2 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 6.6 3.6 0.3 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 6.2 4.3 0.6 0.0 13.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.5 4.4 0.8 0.0 12.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 4.4 3.8 0.9 0.0 10.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.7 9.0 12.3 14.3 15.0 13.3 10.7 7.3 4.3 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 96.6% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-3 76.3% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 40.4% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.9% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 95.7% 15.7% 80.0% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.9%
16-2 0.3% 88.6% 16.3% 72.2% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.4%
15-3 0.9% 74.4% 15.6% 58.8% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 69.7%
14-4 2.1% 55.7% 12.3% 43.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 49.5%
13-5 4.3% 35.9% 9.3% 26.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.8 29.4%
12-6 7.3% 19.3% 6.9% 12.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.9 13.3%
11-7 10.7% 8.9% 4.5% 4.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.7 4.6%
10-8 13.3% 3.8% 2.5% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.8 1.3%
9-9 15.0% 1.9% 1.7% 0.2% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.7 0.2%
8-10 14.3% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.2 0.0%
7-11 12.3% 0.7% 0.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.2
6-12 9.0% 0.4% 0.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0
5-13 5.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 5.7
4-14 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.9
3-15 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.1% 2.7% 4.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.8 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 92.9 4.5%