Houston
American Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.5#21
Achievement Rating+25.5#4
Pace66.0#259
Improvement+1.8#93

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#37
First Shot+3.1#82
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#19
Layup/Dunks-0.7#193
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#113
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#79
Freethrows+0.0#177
Improvement+2.1#76

Defense
Total Defense+8.5#13
First Shot+7.5#14
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#84
Layups/Dunks+5.3#16
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#185
Freethrows+1.3#85
Improvement-0.2#191
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 3.1% 3.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 79.4% 80.2% 59.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.5 3.5 4.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 95.1% 95.6% 82.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round83.6% 84.0% 74.7%
Sweet Sixteen45.4% 45.8% 36.1%
Elite Eight17.0% 17.3% 10.5%
Final Four6.0% 6.1% 3.0%
Championship Game1.9% 1.9% 1.0%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.2%

Next Game: Tulane (Away) - 95.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 347   Alabama A&M W 101-54 99%     1 - 0 +29.0 +25.0 +5.0
  Nov 14, 2018 248   Rice W 79-68 97%     2 - 0 +3.2 +7.8 -3.6
  Nov 19, 2018 333   Northwestern St. W 82-55 99%     3 - 0 +12.0 +15.3 +0.4
  Nov 24, 2018 75   @ BYU W 76-62 70%     4 - 0 +23.2 +16.2 +9.0
  Nov 28, 2018 183   UT Rio Grande Valley W 58-53 95%     5 - 0 +1.1 -5.9 +7.5
  Dec 01, 2018 55   Oregon W 65-61 80%     6 - 0 +9.7 -0.6 +10.4
  Dec 04, 2018 249   Lamar W 79-56 97%     7 - 0 +15.1 +5.2 +10.9
  Dec 08, 2018 89   @ Oklahoma St. W 63-53 73%     8 - 0 +18.2 -3.0 +21.8
  Dec 12, 2018 23   LSU W 82-76 61%     9 - 0 +17.6 +3.4 +13.6
  Dec 16, 2018 123   Saint Louis W 68-64 90%     10 - 0 +4.6 +2.5 +2.3
  Dec 20, 2018 51   Utah St. W 60-50 78%     11 - 0 +16.5 -7.3 +24.3
  Dec 23, 2018 345   Coppin St. W 75-44 99%     12 - 0 +13.2 -9.2 +20.0
  Dec 29, 2018 194   NJIT W 80-59 95%     13 - 0 +16.3 +3.2 +12.0
  Jan 02, 2019 98   Tulsa W 74-56 87%     14 - 0 1 - 0 +20.4 +1.9 +18.1
  Jan 06, 2019 76   Memphis W 90-77 84%     15 - 0 2 - 0 +16.7 +14.1 +2.0
  Jan 09, 2019 68   @ Temple L 69-73 68%     15 - 1 2 - 1 +5.7 +1.7 +4.0
  Jan 12, 2019 112   Wichita St. W 79-70 89%     16 - 1 3 - 1 +10.3 +10.6 +0.0
  Jan 16, 2019 103   @ SMU W 69-58 75%     17 - 1 4 - 1 +18.4 +10.4 +10.3
  Jan 19, 2019 118   @ South Florida W 69-60 78%     18 - 1 5 - 1 +15.4 +4.8 +10.9
  Jan 23, 2019 266   East Carolina W 94-50 97%     19 - 1 6 - 1 +35.2 +20.8 +15.2
  Jan 27, 2019 98   @ Tulsa W 77-65 74%     20 - 1 7 - 1 +19.8 +8.3 +11.4
  Jan 31, 2019 68   Temple W 73-66 83%     21 - 1 8 - 1 +11.3 +1.3 +9.9
  Feb 07, 2019 52   @ Central Florida W 77-68 60%     22 - 1 9 - 1 +20.9 +11.1 +9.8
  Feb 10, 2019 31   Cincinnati W 65-58 68%     23 - 1 10 - 1 +16.6 +11.9 +6.4
  Feb 14, 2019 85   @ Connecticut W 71-63 71%     24 - 1 11 - 1 +16.7 +8.4 +9.1
  Feb 17, 2019 285   @ Tulane W 77-58 96%    
  Feb 23, 2019 118   South Florida W 71-58 90%    
  Feb 27, 2019 266   @ East Carolina W 76-58 95%    
  Mar 02, 2019 52   Central Florida W 69-61 78%    
  Mar 07, 2019 103   SMU W 75-63 88%    
  Mar 10, 2019 31   @ Cincinnati L 64-65 47%    
Projected Record 28.9 - 2.1 15.9 - 2.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.9 19.3 44.5 28.2 95.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.4 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 4.9 21.7 44.5 28.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 28.2    28.2
16-2 100.0% 44.5    40.6 3.9
15-3 89.1% 19.3    13.1 6.2
14-4 59.6% 2.9    1.0 1.6 0.4 0.0
13-5 16.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 95.1% 95.1 82.9 11.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 28.2% 100.0% 46.6% 53.4% 2.6 3.1 11.1 9.8 3.6 0.6 0.1 100.0%
16-2 44.5% 100.0% 42.2% 57.8% 3.6 0.1 4.4 17.1 15.8 6.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 21.7% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1% 4.3 0.3 3.9 8.7 6.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.9% 99.9% 32.3% 67.7% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 0.7% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 41.6% 58.4% 3.5 3.1 15.8 31.0 29.5 15.5 4.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 13.1% 100.0% 2.0 22.2 54.0 21.5 2.3 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.3% 100.0% 2.8 1.3 35.2 45.3 16.0 2.2 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.3% 100.0% 3.1 1.0 24.6 47.5 22.2 4.2 0.5