Houston
American Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.0#33
Achievement Rating+22.2#9
Pace60.2#350
Improvement+0.8#113

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#54
First Shot+2.1#118
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#41
Layup/Dunks-0.8#203
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#213
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#39
Freethrows-1.6#263
Improvement-1.8#312

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#23
First Shot+8.7#7
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#276
Layups/Dunks+3.5#59
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#239
Freethrows+5.2#5
Improvement+2.7#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 1.3% 1.8% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 21.7% 26.4% 11.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.7% 88.0% 73.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 77.8% 83.3% 66.1%
Average Seed 6.5 6.1 7.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 97.6% 95.6%
Conference Champion 38.5% 41.0% 32.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.9% 2.2% 4.4%
First Round82.1% 86.9% 71.2%
Second Round50.7% 55.5% 39.7%
Sweet Sixteen21.6% 24.5% 14.9%
Elite Eight8.5% 9.8% 5.5%
Final Four3.2% 3.8% 1.9%
Championship Game1.2% 1.4% 0.7%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: LSU (Home) - 69.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 351   Alabama A&M W 101-54 99%     1 - 0 +26.2 +23.2 +4.1
  Nov 14, 2018 315   Rice W 79-68 98%     2 - 0 -1.3 +7.2 -7.4
  Nov 19, 2018 347   Northwestern St. W 82-55 99%     3 - 0 +7.8 +13.2 -1.7
  Nov 24, 2018 65   @ BYU W 76-62 56%     4 - 0 +24.4 +18.1 +8.3
  Nov 28, 2018 222   UT Rio Grande Valley W 58-53 95%     5 - 0 -1.5 -9.0 +8.0
  Dec 01, 2018 35   Oregon W 65-61 62%     6 - 0 +12.9 -2.1 +15.1
  Dec 04, 2018 230   Lamar W 79-56 95%     7 - 0 +15.8 +6.4 +10.5
  Dec 08, 2018 73   @ Oklahoma St. W 63-53 58%     8 - 0 +19.9 +0.1 +20.3
  Dec 12, 2018 51   LSU W 71-66 70%    
  Dec 16, 2018 76   Saint Louis W 65-57 79%    
  Dec 20, 2018 50   Utah St. W 70-65 70%    
  Dec 23, 2018 350   Coppin St. W 80-48 99.9%   
  Dec 29, 2018 200   NJIT W 71-54 95%    
  Jan 02, 2019 120   Tulsa W 70-59 85%    
  Jan 06, 2019 116   Memphis W 76-65 84%    
  Jan 09, 2019 68   @ Temple W 65-63 57%    
  Jan 12, 2019 115   Wichita St. W 71-60 84%    
  Jan 16, 2019 114   @ SMU W 67-62 67%    
  Jan 19, 2019 193   @ South Florida W 67-56 84%    
  Jan 23, 2019 259   East Carolina W 76-55 97%    
  Jan 27, 2019 120   @ Tulsa W 67-62 68%    
  Jan 31, 2019 68   Temple W 68-60 76%    
  Feb 07, 2019 43   @ Central Florida L 61-62 45%    
  Feb 10, 2019 25   Cincinnati W 61-59 57%    
  Feb 14, 2019 78   @ Connecticut W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 17, 2019 212   @ Tulane W 72-60 86%    
  Feb 23, 2019 193   South Florida W 70-53 93%    
  Feb 27, 2019 259   @ East Carolina W 73-58 90%    
  Mar 02, 2019 43   Central Florida W 64-59 66%    
  Mar 07, 2019 114   SMU W 70-59 83%    
  Mar 10, 2019 25   @ Cincinnati L 58-62 37%    
Projected Record 25.3 - 5.7 13.2 - 4.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.7 8.1 11.7 9.7 4.8 1.2 38.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.5 8.7 7.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.6 4.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.5 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.5 6.1 9.8 13.3 16.5 16.9 14.8 10.1 4.8 1.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 100.0% 4.8    4.6 0.1
16-2 95.8% 9.7    8.5 1.2 0.0
15-3 78.9% 11.7    7.8 3.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 47.9% 8.1    3.5 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.4% 2.7    0.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 38.5% 38.5 26.2 9.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 99.9% 58.7% 41.2% 1.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
17-1 4.8% 99.8% 46.6% 53.2% 2.6 0.6 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
16-2 10.1% 99.5% 42.0% 57.5% 3.8 0.1 1.7 3.0 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.1%
15-3 14.8% 98.6% 36.2% 62.4% 5.1 0.3 2.0 3.7 3.6 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.8%
14-4 16.9% 96.1% 30.1% 66.0% 6.3 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.3 3.6 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 94.4%
13-5 16.5% 91.3% 24.1% 67.2% 7.6 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.5 3.4 3.1 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 88.6%
12-6 13.3% 81.4% 18.7% 62.8% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.3 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.5 77.2%
11-7 9.8% 67.2% 13.4% 53.8% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.2 62.1%
10-8 6.1% 48.9% 9.9% 39.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.1 43.3%
9-9 3.5% 30.1% 7.1% 23.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.4 24.7%
8-10 1.8% 12.5% 5.7% 6.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 7.2%
7-11 0.8% 4.7% 3.3% 1.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.5%
6-12 0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 2.8% 2.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 3.7% 3.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 83.7% 26.4% 57.3% 6.5 1.3 4.4 6.7 9.3 10.2 10.1 10.7 9.7 9.7 6.2 3.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 16.3 77.8%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.3 75.2 23.2 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 46.0 48.9 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 35.6 54.8 9.6