Ball St.
Mid-American
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#99
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#153
Pace69.2#192
Improvement+1.9#91

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#183
First Shot-0.4#190
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#147
Layup/Dunks+0.9#133
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#348
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#39
Freethrows-1.6#292
Improvement+0.9#122

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#59
First Shot+4.5#53
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#147
Layups/Dunks-0.1#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#184
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#72
Freethrows+1.8#67
Improvement+1.1#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.2% 19.2% 13.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.4
.500 or above 96.1% 97.6% 89.7%
.500 or above in Conference 97.3% 98.4% 92.5%
Conference Champion 22.5% 25.3% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round18.2% 19.2% 13.8%
Second Round3.4% 3.6% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 0.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Home) - 81.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 38 - 610 - 10
Quad 49 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 246   @ Evansville L 75-79 74%     0 - 1 -5.9 -2.5 -3.2
  Nov 13, 2019 238   @ Illinois-Chicago W 67-48 72%     1 - 1 +17.6 +1.7 +18.0
  Nov 17, 2019 115   Indiana St. W 69-55 54%     2 - 1 +17.8 +2.7 +16.2
  Nov 20, 2019 119   Northern Kentucky L 57-59 66%     2 - 2 -1.5 -16.0 +14.6
  Nov 23, 2019 349   Howard W 100-69 98%     3 - 2 +10.2 +24.3 -11.0
  Nov 26, 2019 330   Western Illinois L 62-69 95%     3 - 3 -20.6 -22.6 +2.2
  Dec 03, 2019 98   Loyola Chicago L 58-70 61%     3 - 4 -10.1 -12.2 +2.2
  Dec 07, 2019 309   IUPUI W 102-54 93%     4 - 4 +35.9 +18.5 +16.4
  Dec 18, 2019 79   @ Georgia Tech W 65-47 32%     5 - 4 +27.7 -2.6 +29.5
  Dec 22, 2019 45   Washington L 64-85 29%     5 - 5 -10.6 +0.5 -11.7
  Dec 23, 2019 147   UTEP L 70-71 63%     5 - 6 +0.3 -0.4 +0.8
  Dec 25, 2019 266   Portland W 61-46 84%     6 - 6 +9.1 -10.2 +20.1
  Jan 03, 2020 125   Toledo W 61-57 70%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +3.5 -10.5 +14.1
  Jan 07, 2020 151   Buffalo W 88-68 74%     8 - 6 2 - 0 +18.2 +6.7 +10.2
  Jan 10, 2020 72   @ Akron L 60-75 30%     8 - 7 2 - 1 -4.8 -4.8 -0.4
  Jan 14, 2020 227   @ Eastern Michigan W 69-52 71%     9 - 7 3 - 1 +16.1 +0.6 +15.4
  Jan 18, 2020 191   Miami (OH) W 74-65 81%    
  Jan 25, 2020 166   @ Central Michigan W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 28, 2020 153   @ Bowling Green W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 01, 2020 207   Ohio W 74-63 84%    
  Feb 04, 2020 104   @ Kent St. L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 08, 2020 240   @ Western Michigan W 71-65 72%    
  Feb 11, 2020 190   Northern Illinois W 68-59 80%    
  Feb 15, 2020 153   Bowling Green W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 18, 2020 151   @ Buffalo W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 22, 2020 227   Eastern Michigan W 68-56 86%    
  Feb 25, 2020 240   Western Michigan W 74-62 87%    
  Feb 29, 2020 125   @ Toledo L 67-68 49%    
  Mar 03, 2020 166   Central Michigan W 79-71 76%    
  Mar 06, 2020 190   @ Northern Illinois W 65-62 62%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.3 7.0 6.9 3.7 0.8 22.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 7.3 12.0 9.4 3.2 0.7 0.0 34.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.7 8.0 4.0 0.8 0.0 19.4 3rd
4th 0.3 3.3 5.3 2.1 0.2 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.4 1.9 1.0 0.1 3.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.4 8.7 14.0 18.0 19.5 17.2 10.2 4.4 0.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 95.9% 0.8    0.7 0.1
16-2 84.8% 3.7    2.9 0.9 0.0
15-3 68.0% 6.9    4.3 2.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 40.8% 7.0    3.1 3.2 0.7 0.0
13-5 17.1% 3.3    0.8 1.6 0.8 0.2
12-6 3.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.5% 22.5 11.7 8.5 1.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.9% 40.0% 39.5% 0.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.8%
16-2 4.4% 32.7% 32.6% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 3.0 0.2%
15-3 10.2% 28.6% 28.6% 12.5 0.1 1.4 1.2 0.2 7.3
14-4 17.2% 24.4% 24.4% 12.9 0.0 1.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 13.0
13-5 19.5% 19.2% 19.2% 13.2 0.5 2.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 15.8
12-6 18.0% 15.7% 15.7% 13.6 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 15.2
11-7 14.0% 11.3% 11.3% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 12.4
10-8 8.7% 9.1% 9.1% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 7.9
9-9 4.4% 5.3% 5.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.2
8-10 1.9% 4.4% 4.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
7-11 0.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
6-12 0.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.3 7.6 4.4 1.2 0.1 81.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.8 2.9 8.1 4.7 9.3 41.9 32.0 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%