Ball St.
Mid-American
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.5#91
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#100
Pace69.4#185
Improvement+0.4#121

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#109
First Shot-1.0#205
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#41
Layup/Dunks+3.5#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#232
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#197
Freethrows-2.5#300
Improvement-0.5#255

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#78
First Shot+1.3#125
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#67
Layups/Dunks-8.1#342
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#14
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#71
Freethrows+2.2#75
Improvement+0.9#70
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.8% 21.0% 12.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.8% 4.7% 1.3%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 12.0
.500 or above 88.7% 92.0% 79.0%
.500 or above in Conference 81.9% 84.3% 74.6%
Conference Champion 22.5% 24.8% 15.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.3% 2.4%
First Four1.9% 2.3% 0.8%
First Round17.9% 20.0% 11.6%
Second Round5.8% 6.9% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 2.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Kentucky (Home) - 74.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 43 - 6
Quad 39 - 412 - 10
Quad 48 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 138   @ Evansville L 75-79 53%     0 - 1 +0.8 +2.1 -1.2
  Nov 13, 2019 204   @ Illinois-Chicago W 67-48 68%     1 - 1 +19.7 +3.0 +18.7
  Nov 17, 2019 165   Indiana St. W 69-55 71%     2 - 1 +13.8 +0.0 +15.0
  Nov 20, 2019 142   Northern Kentucky W 73-66 75%    
  Nov 23, 2019 347   Howard W 88-65 98%    
  Nov 26, 2019 313   Western Illinois W 81-63 95%    
  Dec 03, 2019 130   Loyola Chicago W 70-64 72%    
  Dec 07, 2019 251   IUPUI W 78-65 88%    
  Dec 18, 2019 67   @ Georgia Tech L 64-70 30%    
  Dec 22, 2019 60   Washington L 64-67 37%    
  Jan 03, 2020 86   Toledo W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 07, 2020 105   Buffalo W 80-76 65%    
  Jan 10, 2020 134   @ Akron W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 14, 2020 194   @ Eastern Michigan W 65-61 65%    
  Jan 18, 2020 162   Miami (OH) W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 25, 2020 129   @ Central Michigan W 82-81 50%    
  Jan 28, 2020 103   @ Bowling Green L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 01, 2020 157   Ohio W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 04, 2020 117   @ Kent St. L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 08, 2020 241   @ Western Michigan W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 11, 2020 156   Northern Illinois W 71-63 77%    
  Feb 15, 2020 103   Bowling Green W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 18, 2020 105   @ Buffalo L 77-79 45%    
  Feb 22, 2020 194   Eastern Michigan W 68-58 80%    
  Feb 25, 2020 241   Western Michigan W 79-66 87%    
  Feb 29, 2020 86   @ Toledo L 69-72 38%    
  Mar 03, 2020 129   Central Michigan W 84-78 71%    
  Mar 06, 2020 156   @ Northern Illinois W 68-66 57%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.1 6.0 5.9 4.2 2.0 0.5 22.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 1.2 4.3 6.4 3.9 0.9 0.1 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.6 5.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.0 1.6 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.1 1.9 0.2 9.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.2 2.2 0.2 8.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 3.0 2.2 0.2 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.9 2.8 4.7 7.4 9.7 11.7 12.9 11.9 11.8 10.4 6.9 4.3 2.0 0.5 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0 0.0
16-2 97.3% 4.2    3.8 0.4 0.0
15-3 86.3% 5.9    4.4 1.5 0.1
14-4 57.9% 6.0    3.3 2.3 0.4 0.0
13-5 26.6% 3.1    1.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.4% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.5% 22.5 14.9 5.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 95.6% 63.0% 32.6% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 88.1%
17-1 2.0% 80.3% 49.0% 31.3% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 61.3%
16-2 4.3% 60.1% 38.9% 21.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.7 34.7%
15-3 6.9% 47.6% 35.5% 12.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.1 3.6 18.7%
14-4 10.4% 33.6% 29.0% 4.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.9 6.4%
13-5 11.8% 21.9% 20.4% 1.5% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.2 1.9%
12-6 11.9% 14.6% 14.1% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.2 0.5%
11-7 12.9% 11.2% 11.2% 12.7 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 11.4
10-8 11.7% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 13.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 10.9 0.0%
9-9 9.7% 3.6% 3.6% 13.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.3
8-10 7.4% 4.0% 4.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.1
7-11 4.7% 2.7% 2.7% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.6
6-12 2.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 1.9% 2.6% 2.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
4-14 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 18.8% 15.6% 3.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.3 4.3 6.9 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 81.2 3.8%