Central Florida
American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#111
Expected Predictive Rating+2.7#128
Pace66.8#250
Improvement+1.7#110

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#185
First Shot-1.2#216
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#115
Layup/Dunks+1.8#100
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#235
Freethrows-0.7#222
Improvement-1.1#236

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#71
First Shot+6.0#29
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#305
Layups/Dunks+2.0#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#263
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#112
Freethrows+3.7#15
Improvement+2.7#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.5% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 11.4 12.5
.500 or above 57.2% 79.4% 52.8%
.500 or above in Conference 26.5% 50.1% 21.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.8% 2.4% 8.8%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round1.4% 2.4% 1.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 16.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 22 - 53 - 11
Quad 36 - 59 - 15
Quad 47 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 199   Prairie View W 73-69 82%     1 - 0 -1.5 -2.5 +0.9
  Nov 12, 2019 96   Miami (FL) L 70-79 57%     1 - 1 -6.7 -3.9 -3.0
  Nov 17, 2019 209   @ Illinois St. W 67-65 66%     2 - 1 +1.9 -5.0 +6.9
  Nov 23, 2019 125   College of Charleston L 70-73 66%     2 - 2 -3.3 -1.9 -1.6
  Nov 28, 2019 146   Penn L 67-68 61%     2 - 3 +0.1 -8.6 +8.7
  Nov 29, 2019 141   Pepperdine W 78-65 60%     3 - 3 +14.5 +3.6 +11.1
  Dec 01, 2019 125   College of Charleston W 77-56 55%     4 - 3 +23.6 +15.3 +11.6
  Dec 07, 2019 259   NJIT W 78-65 87%     5 - 3 +4.6 -5.0 +8.5
  Dec 10, 2019 215   Green Bay W 79-66 83%     6 - 3 +6.8 -5.6 +11.7
  Dec 15, 2019 208   Sacred Heart W 76-65 83%     7 - 3 +5.0 -2.2 +7.1
  Dec 18, 2019 301   Bethune-Cookman W 70-65 91%     8 - 3 -6.1 -10.5 +4.3
  Dec 21, 2019 46   @ Oklahoma L 52-53 19%     8 - 4 +12.4 -10.4 +22.7
  Dec 31, 2019 87   Temple L 58-62 53%     8 - 5 0 - 1 -0.7 -8.4 +7.6
  Jan 03, 2020 31   @ Houston L 63-78 15%     8 - 6 0 - 2 +0.3 -7.3 +8.5
  Jan 08, 2020 75   @ SMU L 74-81 28%     8 - 7 0 - 3 +3.1 +7.5 -4.8
  Jan 11, 2020 45   Cincinnati L 54-68 36%     8 - 8 0 - 4 -6.4 -7.8 -0.3
  Jan 14, 2020 166   @ Tulane W 74-55 54%     9 - 8 1 - 4 +22.0 +4.4 +18.2
  Jan 18, 2020 116   South Florida W 55-54 64%     10 - 8 2 - 4 +1.4 -7.4 +9.0
  Jan 25, 2020 39   @ Wichita St. L 59-69 17%    
  Jan 29, 2020 49   Memphis L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 01, 2020 116   @ South Florida L 60-62 42%    
  Feb 06, 2020 230   @ East Carolina W 70-65 68%    
  Feb 09, 2020 77   Tulsa L 62-63 50%    
  Feb 13, 2020 39   Wichita St. L 62-66 36%    
  Feb 19, 2020 45   @ Cincinnati L 61-70 19%    
  Feb 22, 2020 166   Tulane W 70-63 74%    
  Feb 26, 2020 72   @ Connecticut L 61-67 29%    
  Feb 29, 2020 77   @ Tulsa L 59-65 29%    
  Mar 04, 2020 75   SMU L 66-67 49%    
  Mar 08, 2020 230   East Carolina W 73-62 84%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 1.4 0.1 3.5 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 3.4 0.4 6.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 6.5 1.8 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 8.7 4.7 0.3 16.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.3 9.8 7.5 0.8 0.0 20.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 7.5 7.4 1.4 17.7 9th
10th 0.7 4.6 5.6 1.3 12.1 10th
11th 0.3 2.4 3.5 0.8 0.0 7.0 11th
12th 0.2 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.0 12th
Total 0.2 1.1 4.6 9.9 16.4 21.3 20.2 14.5 7.7 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 36.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 9.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.8% 2.4% 2.4% 12.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 3.3% 4.5% 4.2% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.3%
10-8 7.7% 4.2% 4.1% 0.1% 11.7 0.1 0.2 7.3 0.1%
9-9 14.5% 2.1% 2.1% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 14.1
8-10 20.2% 1.0% 1.0% 12.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 19.9
7-11 21.3% 0.8% 0.8% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 21.1
6-12 16.4% 0.7% 0.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 16.3
5-13 9.9% 0.3% 0.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 9.9
4-14 4.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 4.6
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.4% 1.3% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.1 98.6 0.1%