Kansas St.
Big 12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#82
Expected Predictive Rating+3.0#124
Pace65.8#276
Improvement+1.7#116

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#162
First Shot+1.7#121
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#249
Layup/Dunks+2.2#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#293
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#129
Freethrows+0.7#118
Improvement+4.0#19

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#38
First Shot+4.6#57
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#68
Layups/Dunks+1.8#98
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#36
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#174
Freethrows+0.3#167
Improvement-2.3#293
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 7.4% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.3% 6.1% 1.0%
Average Seed 10.3 9.6 10.5
.500 or above 5.6% 18.7% 4.9%
.500 or above in Conference 3.3% 13.4% 2.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 41.2% 19.9% 42.4%
First Four0.5% 1.2% 0.4%
First Round1.5% 6.6% 1.3%
Second Round0.6% 2.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 1.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas (Away) - 5.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 53 - 12
Quad 23 - 66 - 18
Quad 33 - 28 - 20
Quad 44 - 013 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 149   North Dakota St. W 67-54 79%     1 - 0 +11.2 -3.7 +15.8
  Nov 09, 2019 124   @ UNLV W 60-56 OT 54%     2 - 0 +9.6 -11.6 +21.3
  Nov 13, 2019 204   Monmouth W 73-54 87%     3 - 0 +13.4 -0.8 +14.1
  Nov 19, 2019 347   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 62-51 98%     4 - 0 -8.6 -14.9 +6.5
  Nov 25, 2019 67   Pittsburgh L 59-63 46%     4 - 1 +3.8 -5.7 +9.2
  Nov 27, 2019 96   Bradley L 60-73 56%     4 - 2 -7.9 -11.4 +3.8
  Dec 02, 2019 308   Florida A&M W 76-58 95%     5 - 2 +6.2 +2.9 +3.9
  Dec 07, 2019 27   Marquette L 65-73 38%     5 - 3 +1.7 -5.4 +7.3
  Dec 11, 2019 340   Alabama St. W 86-41 97%     6 - 3 +29.1 +9.9 +20.7
  Dec 14, 2019 43   Mississippi St. L 61-67 34%     6 - 4 +4.8 -5.4 +10.0
  Dec 21, 2019 91   Saint Louis L 63-66 64%     6 - 5 +0.1 -1.6 +1.5
  Dec 29, 2019 98   Tulsa W 69-67 67%     7 - 5 +4.2 +1.7 +2.6
  Jan 04, 2020 47   @ Oklahoma L 61-66 27%     7 - 6 0 - 1 +8.2 -1.6 +9.5
  Jan 07, 2020 64   TCU L 57-59 57%     7 - 7 0 - 2 +3.0 -7.7 +10.6
  Jan 11, 2020 62   @ Texas L 50-64 34%     7 - 8 0 - 3 -3.0 -11.8 +7.6
  Jan 14, 2020 17   Texas Tech L 63-77 33%     7 - 9 0 - 4 -2.8 +2.2 -5.7
  Jan 18, 2020 8   West Virginia W 84-68 26%     8 - 9 1 - 4 +29.3 +19.9 +9.4
  Jan 21, 2020 1   @ Kansas L 55-72 5%    
  Jan 25, 2020 35   @ Alabama L 69-77 23%    
  Jan 29, 2020 47   Oklahoma L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 01, 2020 8   @ West Virginia L 59-71 12%    
  Feb 03, 2020 5   Baylor L 58-66 24%    
  Feb 08, 2020 56   @ Iowa St. L 66-71 31%    
  Feb 11, 2020 68   Oklahoma St. W 64-62 57%    
  Feb 15, 2020 64   @ TCU L 60-64 35%    
  Feb 19, 2020 17   @ Texas Tech L 57-67 16%    
  Feb 22, 2020 62   Texas W 63-62 56%    
  Feb 25, 2020 5   @ Baylor L 56-69 11%    
  Feb 29, 2020 1   Kansas L 58-69 15%    
  Mar 04, 2020 68   @ Oklahoma St. L 61-65 35%    
  Mar 07, 2020 56   Iowa St. W 69-68 53%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 4.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 7.0 4.6 0.6 0.0 13.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.9 8.7 7.2 1.2 0.0 19.1 8th
9th 0.3 3.4 10.8 9.1 1.7 0.0 25.3 9th
10th 1.4 6.0 10.5 7.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 26.6 10th
Total 1.4 6.3 13.9 20.2 20.7 17.5 11.3 5.6 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 11.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 97.1% 1.0% 96.2% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1%
10-8 0.7% 58.8% 2.2% 56.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 57.9%
9-9 2.3% 24.3% 3.0% 21.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.7 22.0%
8-10 5.6% 3.6% 1.1% 2.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.4 2.4%
7-11 11.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.1 0.2%
6-12 17.5% 0.5% 0.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.4
5-13 20.7% 0.2% 0.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.6
4-14 20.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.2
3-15 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
2-16 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.3
1-17 1.4% 1.4
0-18
Total 100% 1.7% 0.5% 1.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 98.3 1.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%