Mount St. Mary's
Northeast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#271
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#289
Pace60.8#341
Improvement+3.8#41

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#294
First Shot-3.6#292
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#235
Layup/Dunks-2.1#247
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#161
Freethrows-0.7#227
Improvement+3.7#22

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#222
First Shot-1.1#198
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#225
Layups/Dunks-1.5#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#215
Freethrows+0.9#130
Improvement+0.2#164
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 10.3% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 17.4% 31.9% 11.7%
.500 or above in Conference 80.0% 93.1% 75.0%
Conference Champion 9.0% 18.4% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.2% 7.4% 5.8%
First Round4.6% 6.6% 3.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Away) - 28.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 413 - 914 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 49   @ Georgetown L 68-81 5%     0 - 1 -0.1 -2.5 +2.7
  Nov 12, 2019 50   @ Washington L 46-56 5%     0 - 2 +2.8 -13.0 +14.8
  Nov 15, 2019 278   @ Lamar L 61-76 41%     0 - 3 -18.7 -8.7 -10.7
  Nov 20, 2019 190   @ UAB L 51-58 24%     0 - 4 -5.6 -11.5 +4.7
  Nov 22, 2019 12   @ Kentucky L 62-82 2%     0 - 5 -2.2 -1.7 -0.7
  Nov 26, 2019 258   Utah Valley W 64-61 59%     1 - 5 -5.4 -9.9 +4.6
  Nov 30, 2019 347   @ Howard W 73-56 79%     2 - 5 +2.7 -9.1 +12.1
  Dec 03, 2019 227   @ Grand Canyon L 67-75 OT 31%     2 - 6 -8.9 -9.2 +0.5
  Dec 07, 2019 281   Loyola Maryland L 48-64 63%     2 - 7 -25.6 -24.8 -3.1
  Dec 17, 2019 211   American L 76-82 50%     2 - 8 -12.0 -0.9 -11.1
  Dec 20, 2019 224   @ Navy L 48-59 31%     2 - 9 -11.8 -12.8 -1.6
  Dec 27, 2019 336   Coppin St. W 79-55 78%     3 - 9 +9.7 +1.3 +8.2
  Jan 02, 2020 333   Wagner L 47-66 78%     3 - 10 0 - 1 -33.0 -27.3 -8.4
  Jan 04, 2020 240   LIU Brooklyn W 82-73 2OT 56%     4 - 10 1 - 1 +1.5 -8.9 +8.9
  Jan 09, 2020 254   @ Merrimack L 61-64 36%     4 - 11 1 - 2 -5.3 -2.8 -2.9
  Jan 11, 2020 241   @ Bryant W 67-65 34%     5 - 11 2 - 2 +0.3 +5.0 -4.4
  Jan 18, 2020 350   Central Connecticut St. W 79-52 92%     6 - 11 3 - 2 +5.4 +5.9 +3.1
  Jan 20, 2020 295   St. Francis Brooklyn W 59-39 67%     7 - 11 4 - 2 +9.5 -11.4 +23.3
  Jan 25, 2020 241   Bryant W 79-76 56%     8 - 11 5 - 2 -4.5 +7.6 -12.0
  Jan 30, 2020 205   @ Sacred Heart L 64-70 28%    
  Feb 01, 2020 312   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 06, 2020 240   @ LIU Brooklyn L 66-70 34%    
  Feb 08, 2020 295   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 64-65 45%    
  Feb 13, 2020 222   Robert Morris W 62-61 53%    
  Feb 15, 2020 213   St. Francis (PA) W 68-67 50%    
  Feb 18, 2020 333   @ Wagner W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 21, 2020 222   @ Robert Morris L 59-64 31%    
  Feb 23, 2020 254   Merrimack W 59-57 58%    
  Feb 27, 2020 213   @ St. Francis (PA) L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 29, 2020 312   Fairleigh Dickinson W 69-63 70%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.3 3.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.0 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 5.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.7 7.9 3.7 0.4 12.7 3rd
4th 0.4 6.5 6.7 0.5 14.0 4th
5th 0.1 3.8 9.6 1.7 0.0 15.1 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 9.6 3.3 0.1 15.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 5.7 4.9 0.2 11.8 7th
8th 0.3 3.1 3.7 0.6 7.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.4 1.6 6.1 11.9 19.2 20.4 18.7 12.2 6.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 96.8% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-4 89.4% 2.4    1.8 0.5 0.1
13-5 58.8% 3.8    1.4 1.6 0.6 0.0
12-6 18.9% 2.3    0.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 3.9 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.4% 20.7% 20.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3
14-4 2.7% 15.5% 15.5% 15.9 0.1 0.4 2.3
13-5 6.4% 13.9% 13.9% 15.9 0.1 0.8 5.5
12-6 12.2% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.1 1.2 11.0
11-7 18.7% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 1.8 16.9
10-8 20.4% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 1.6 18.8
9-9 19.2% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 1.0 18.2
8-10 11.9% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.5 11.4
7-11 6.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.0
6-12 1.6% 1.6
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 7.4 92.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%