North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#64
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#96
Pace77.6#25
Improvement-3.7#323

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#53
First Shot+0.7#154
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#6
Layup/Dunks+1.7#103
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#63
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#333
Freethrows+2.4#31
Improvement+0.4#155

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#84
First Shot+3.1#82
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#121
Layups/Dunks-0.2#180
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#232
Freethrows+2.1#58
Improvement-4.1#340
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 16.5% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.9% 15.7% 5.5%
Average Seed 9.6 9.5 9.8
.500 or above 32.3% 46.1% 21.6%
.500 or above in Conference 14.1% 22.9% 7.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 17.4% 9.0% 23.9%
First Four2.8% 4.2% 1.8%
First Round9.1% 14.4% 5.1%
Second Round4.1% 6.6% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 2.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Away) - 43.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 11
Quad 25 - 48 - 15
Quad 34 - 312 - 18
Quad 43 - 015 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 55   Notre Dame W 76-65 57%     1 - 0 1 - 0 +17.3 +3.4 +13.6
  Nov 08, 2019 321   @ UNC Wilmington W 78-62 91%     2 - 0 +8.9 -5.7 +13.0
  Nov 15, 2019 231   Gardner-Webb W 77-61 91%     3 - 0 +9.1 -3.1 +11.5
  Nov 20, 2019 314   Elon W 75-61 96%     4 - 0 +1.8 -6.4 +7.8
  Nov 27, 2019 40   Alabama W 76-67 38%     5 - 0 +20.2 +0.7 +18.6
  Nov 28, 2019 19   Michigan L 64-73 30%     5 - 1 +4.6 -2.8 +7.5
  Nov 29, 2019 22   Oregon W 78-74 31%     6 - 1 +17.4 +15.4 +2.3
  Dec 04, 2019 11   Ohio St. L 49-74 33%     6 - 2 -12.4 -13.1 -1.1
  Dec 08, 2019 46   @ Virginia L 47-56 31%     6 - 3 1 - 1 +4.2 -6.4 +9.4
  Dec 15, 2019 138   Wofford L 64-68 81%     6 - 4 -5.1 -7.8 +2.5
  Dec 18, 2019 3   @ Gonzaga L 81-94 11%     6 - 5 +8.4 +7.1 +2.9
  Dec 21, 2019 126   UCLA W 74-64 71%     7 - 5 +12.3 -7.4 +18.8
  Dec 30, 2019 71   Yale W 70-67 64%     8 - 5 +7.5 -0.7 +8.2
  Jan 04, 2020 79   Georgia Tech L 83-96 66%     8 - 6 1 - 2 -9.1 +12.3 -21.0
  Jan 08, 2020 77   Pittsburgh L 65-73 65%     8 - 7 1 - 3 -3.9 -6.1 +2.4
  Jan 11, 2020 70   Clemson L 76-79 OT 63%     8 - 8 1 - 4 +1.8 +2.2 -0.2
  Jan 18, 2020 77   @ Pittsburgh L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 22, 2020 58   @ Virginia Tech L 68-71 37%    
  Jan 25, 2020 87   Miami (FL) W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 27, 2020 42   @ North Carolina St. L 76-82 30%    
  Feb 01, 2020 155   Boston College W 78-68 83%    
  Feb 03, 2020 15   @ Florida St. L 69-78 19%    
  Feb 08, 2020 2   Duke L 73-83 18%    
  Feb 11, 2020 110   @ Wake Forest W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 15, 2020 46   Virginia W 59-58 52%    
  Feb 17, 2020 55   @ Notre Dame L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 22, 2020 10   @ Louisville L 66-77 17%    
  Feb 25, 2020 42   North Carolina St. W 80-79 51%    
  Feb 29, 2020 51   @ Syracuse L 71-75 35%    
  Mar 03, 2020 110   Wake Forest W 81-74 75%    
  Mar 07, 2020 2   @ Duke L 70-86 7%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.5 2.6 1.1 0.1 4.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 2.8 0.3 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 4.6 1.4 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.3 4.5 3.8 0.2 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.1 2.6 6.8 1.2 0.0 10.8 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 7.0 3.7 0.1 11.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 4.9 6.5 0.8 0.0 12.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.8 2.2 0.1 12.6 13th
14th 0.2 2.2 5.5 3.1 0.2 11.2 14th
15th 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.0 15th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.5 6.1 11.5 16.3 18.9 17.3 12.8 8.1 3.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 37.5% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 100.0% 7.0% 93.0% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.5% 99.1% 4.7% 94.4% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
12-8 1.6% 94.1% 3.4% 90.7% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 93.9%
11-9 3.8% 77.2% 2.7% 74.5% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.9 76.6%
10-10 8.1% 45.6% 2.1% 43.4% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.6 0.2 4.4 44.4%
9-11 12.8% 11.1% 1.1% 10.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 11.4 10.1%
8-12 17.3% 1.9% 0.6% 1.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 17.0 1.3%
7-13 18.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 18.8 0.0%
6-14 16.3% 0.2% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 16.3
5-15 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 11.5
4-16 6.1% 6.1
3-17 2.5% 2.5
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 10.6% 0.7% 9.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.7 2.3 3.1 0.7 0.0 89.5 9.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%