North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.0#8
Expected Predictive Rating+13.6#29
Pace84.6#10
Improvement-0.3#211

Offense
Total Offense+9.5#5
First Shot+4.7#65
After Offensive Rebound+4.8#14
Layup/Dunks+1.4#121
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#80
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#251
Freethrows+3.8#22
Improvement+0.2#127

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#20
First Shot+8.1#9
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#211
Layups/Dunks+1.1#150
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#128
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#61
Freethrows+2.2#73
Improvement-0.5#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.4% 5.0% 2.2%
#1 Seed 17.2% 19.4% 8.7%
Top 2 Seed 33.7% 37.4% 19.6%
Top 4 Seed 60.7% 65.2% 43.5%
Top 6 Seed 77.3% 81.3% 62.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.6% 94.8% 84.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.3% 93.8% 82.4%
Average Seed 3.9 3.7 4.8
.500 or above 98.1% 99.0% 94.5%
.500 or above in Conference 89.1% 91.0% 81.8%
Conference Champion 13.3% 14.5% 8.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four1.8% 1.5% 2.9%
First Round91.9% 94.2% 83.0%
Second Round76.9% 80.1% 64.8%
Sweet Sixteen49.5% 52.4% 38.3%
Elite Eight28.1% 30.2% 20.0%
Final Four15.1% 16.4% 10.0%
Championship Game7.6% 8.3% 4.8%
National Champion3.9% 4.3% 2.2%

Next Game: Alabama (Neutral) - 79.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 17 - 7
Quad 26 - 114 - 8
Quad 36 - 019 - 8
Quad 43 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 52   Notre Dame W 74-65 84%     1 - 0 +15.5 +3.5 +11.7
  Nov 08, 2019 280   @ UNC Wilmington W 78-62 96%     2 - 0 +12.5 -7.6 +18.5
  Nov 15, 2019 197   Gardner-Webb W 77-61 97%     3 - 0 +11.0 -1.5 +11.7
  Nov 20, 2019 305   Elon W 75-61 99%     4 - 0 +1.9 -4.7 +6.3
  Nov 27, 2019 66   Alabama W 94-85 79%    
  Dec 04, 2019 6   Ohio St. W 76-73 61%    
  Dec 07, 2019 9   @ Virginia L 63-66 39%    
  Dec 15, 2019 125   Wofford W 89-71 95%    
  Dec 18, 2019 5   @ Gonzaga L 82-86 38%    
  Dec 21, 2019 78   UCLA W 85-75 82%    
  Dec 30, 2019 116   Yale W 90-73 94%    
  Jan 04, 2020 69   Georgia Tech W 83-71 86%    
  Jan 08, 2020 95   Pittsburgh W 80-65 91%    
  Jan 11, 2020 74   Clemson W 83-70 88%    
  Jan 18, 2020 95   @ Pittsburgh W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 22, 2020 57   @ Virginia Tech W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 25, 2020 51   Miami (FL) W 87-76 82%    
  Jan 27, 2020 39   @ North Carolina St. W 87-84 59%    
  Feb 01, 2020 102   Boston College W 88-72 92%    
  Feb 03, 2020 20   @ Florida St. W 79-78 51%    
  Feb 08, 2020 2   Duke L 83-84 50%    
  Feb 11, 2020 106   @ Wake Forest W 85-75 82%    
  Feb 15, 2020 9   Virginia W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 17, 2020 52   @ Notre Dame W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 22, 2020 4   @ Louisville L 76-81 32%    
  Feb 25, 2020 39   North Carolina St. W 90-81 77%    
  Feb 29, 2020 62   @ Syracuse W 76-71 67%    
  Mar 03, 2020 106   Wake Forest W 88-72 92%    
  Mar 07, 2020 2   @ Duke L 80-86 30%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.0 4.1 2.0 0.5 13.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.2 6.5 4.3 1.1 0.1 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.7 7.1 3.6 0.6 0.0 18.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 5.1 5.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 15.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 4.0 4.5 1.8 0.1 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.4 1.4 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 2.6 1.2 0.1 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 1.9 1.0 0.1 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 3.0 5.1 7.4 10.4 13.0 14.6 14.4 12.6 8.9 5.2 2.0 0.5 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
18-2 96.8% 2.0    1.8 0.2 0.0
17-3 78.2% 4.1    2.7 1.3 0.1
16-4 45.3% 4.0    1.8 1.7 0.5 0.0
15-5 17.1% 2.2    0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.3% 13.3 7.5 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 47.8% 52.2% 1.1 0.5 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.0% 100.0% 47.3% 52.7% 1.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.2% 100.0% 34.9% 65.1% 1.3 3.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.9% 100.0% 29.9% 70.1% 1.6 4.8 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.6% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 2.1 3.9 5.2 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.4% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 2.9 1.8 4.1 4.6 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.6% 99.9% 12.5% 87.4% 3.8 0.6 1.9 4.2 4.0 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 13.0% 99.4% 7.8% 91.7% 4.9 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.9 3.1 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
11-9 10.4% 96.8% 4.5% 92.4% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 96.7%
10-10 7.4% 89.0% 3.0% 86.0% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 88.6%
9-11 5.1% 65.6% 1.9% 63.8% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.8 65.0%
8-12 3.0% 37.1% 0.7% 36.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.9 36.6%
7-13 1.5% 13.4% 1.4% 12.0% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3 12.2%
6-14 0.9% 4.7% 0.4% 4.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.3%
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 92.6% 14.5% 78.1% 3.9 17.2 16.6 15.0 12.0 9.5 7.2 4.9 3.5 2.5 2.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 7.4 91.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.1 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0