Oregon St.
Pac-12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#74
Expected Predictive Rating+6.8#82
Pace66.3#262
Improvement-2.7#282

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#24
First Shot+7.1#15
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#171
Layup/Dunks+6.6#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#284
Freethrows+4.0#8
Improvement+0.0#179

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#158
First Shot+0.9#128
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#244
Layups/Dunks+0.8#133
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#162
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#243
Freethrows+0.8#134
Improvement-2.7#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 11.3% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.8% 9.0% 3.7%
Average Seed 10.3 10.2 10.6
.500 or above 93.2% 96.1% 83.8%
.500 or above in Conference 35.8% 42.0% 16.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.9% 2.7% 11.9%
First Four3.7% 4.2% 2.2%
First Round7.8% 9.0% 3.8%
Second Round2.7% 3.1% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UCLA (Home) - 76.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 6
Quad 23 - 56 - 11
Quad 34 - 210 - 13
Quad 48 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 270   Cal St. Northridge W 87-67 93%     1 - 0 +11.0 +5.4 +5.3
  Nov 09, 2019 56   Iowa St. W 80-74 55%     2 - 0 +12.0 +8.6 +3.5
  Nov 12, 2019 47   Oklahoma L 69-77 38%     2 - 1 +2.4 +4.2 -2.2
  Nov 16, 2019 281   @ Wyoming W 83-63 85%     3 - 1 +16.0 +7.6 +7.6
  Nov 20, 2019 163   UC Santa Barbara W 78-67 82%     4 - 1 +8.3 +3.0 +5.5
  Nov 23, 2019 301   Grambling St. W 80-58 95%     5 - 1 +10.7 +4.7 +6.2
  Nov 27, 2019 287   San Jose St. W 83-48 91%     6 - 1 +27.6 +7.0 +21.0
  Dec 01, 2019 212   Portland St. W 81-76 89%     7 - 1 -0.9 +2.2 -3.1
  Dec 14, 2019 347   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 80-46 99%     8 - 1 +14.4 +5.5 +10.3
  Dec 18, 2019 162   Texas San Antonio W 88-78 75%     9 - 1 +10.2 +7.3 +2.3
  Dec 21, 2019 132   @ Texas A&M L 49-64 58%     9 - 2 -9.9 -17.6 +7.4
  Dec 29, 2019 238   North Dakota W 83-66 90%     10 - 2 +9.8 +4.1 +5.5
  Jan 02, 2020 115   @ Utah L 69-81 52%     10 - 3 0 - 1 -5.3 -3.3 -2.0
  Jan 05, 2020 25   @ Colorado W 76-68 22%     11 - 3 1 - 1 +23.5 +18.3 +5.8
  Jan 09, 2020 71   Arizona St. L 76-82 60%     11 - 4 1 - 2 -1.3 +3.0 -4.1
  Jan 12, 2020 11   Arizona W 82-65 31%     12 - 4 2 - 2 +29.3 +22.1 +8.9
  Jan 16, 2020 46   @ Washington L 56-64 28%     12 - 5 2 - 3 +5.2 +5.3 -1.9
  Jan 18, 2020 122   @ Washington St. L 76-89 56%     12 - 6 2 - 4 -7.2 +6.6 -13.8
  Jan 23, 2020 125   UCLA W 74-67 76%    
  Jan 25, 2020 58   USC W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 30, 2020 44   @ Stanford L 66-72 27%    
  Feb 01, 2020 182   @ California W 70-65 68%    
  Feb 08, 2020 21   Oregon L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 13, 2020 115   Utah W 77-71 73%    
  Feb 15, 2020 25   Colorado L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 20, 2020 11   @ Arizona L 68-79 15%    
  Feb 22, 2020 71   @ Arizona St. L 72-75 38%    
  Feb 27, 2020 21   @ Oregon L 65-74 19%    
  Mar 05, 2020 44   Stanford L 69-70 49%    
  Mar 07, 2020 182   California W 73-62 84%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.6 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.4 2.9 2.3 0.1 5.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.5 5.0 0.7 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.7 8.0 2.4 0.0 14.2 6th
7th 0.1 3.4 10.6 5.2 0.3 0.0 19.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.3 9.2 6.4 0.7 0.0 18.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 6.2 5.8 0.8 0.0 13.7 9th
10th 0.2 3.0 4.2 0.9 0.0 8.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 2.4 0.7 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.7 13.6 19.4 21.8 17.8 11.0 5.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 49.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 93.3% 18.3% 75.0% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.8%
12-6 1.6% 78.2% 10.8% 67.5% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 75.6%
11-7 5.1% 50.6% 6.2% 44.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.5 47.4%
10-8 11.0% 26.0% 4.5% 21.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 0.3 8.1 22.6%
9-9 17.8% 10.2% 2.5% 7.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.4 16.0 7.9%
8-10 21.8% 2.9% 1.8% 1.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 21.1 1.1%
7-11 19.4% 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 19.2 0.1%
6-12 13.6% 0.6% 0.6% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.5
5-13 6.7% 0.6% 0.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 6.6
4-14 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.9% 2.3% 7.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 4.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.2 7.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%