Rhode Island
Atlantic 10
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.4#58
Expected Predictive Rating+11.2#39
Pace74.6#58
Improvement+0.1#175

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#100
First Shot+1.7#120
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#100
Layup/Dunks+5.0#27
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#167
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#294
Freethrows+0.3#150
Improvement-0.2#190

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#46
First Shot+7.1#21
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#295
Layups/Dunks+0.9#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#133
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#61
Freethrows+2.6#36
Improvement+0.4#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.5% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.7% 40.8% 25.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.1% 33.1% 18.5%
Average Seed 10.1 10.0 10.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 99.2%
Conference Champion 9.7% 12.4% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.3% 13.5% 9.7%
First Round29.2% 33.8% 20.0%
Second Round11.7% 14.0% 7.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 3.7% 1.9%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.1% 0.7%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 66.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 5
Quad 25 - 27 - 7
Quad 38 - 215 - 9
Quad 48 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 240   LIU Brooklyn W 76-65 92%     1 - 0 +3.5 -5.4 +8.3
  Nov 09, 2019 7   @ Maryland L 55-73 16%     1 - 1 +1.2 -8.0 +9.9
  Nov 15, 2019 35   Alabama W 93-79 49%     2 - 1 +22.7 +8.5 +11.8
  Nov 19, 2019 212   Nicholls St. W 70-65 91%     3 - 1 -1.1 -7.2 +5.8
  Nov 22, 2019 87   North Texas W 60-47 58%     4 - 1 +19.5 -3.1 +24.2
  Nov 24, 2019 32   LSU L 83-96 36%     4 - 2 -0.8 +3.2 -2.7
  Nov 27, 2019 243   Manhattan W 73-64 92%     5 - 2 +1.4 +0.1 +1.2
  Dec 01, 2019 6   @ West Virginia L 81-86 15%     5 - 3 +14.6 +11.5 +3.6
  Dec 06, 2019 62   Providence W 75-61 62%     6 - 3 +19.3 -3.0 +20.6
  Dec 21, 2019 103   Western Kentucky W 86-82 OT 74%     7 - 3 +5.8 -1.6 +6.8
  Dec 29, 2019 287   @ Middle Tennessee W 89-62 87%     8 - 3 +23.0 +8.5 +12.9
  Jan 02, 2020 201   @ Brown L 75-85 78%     8 - 4 -9.7 -3.9 -4.8
  Jan 05, 2020 76   Richmond L 61-69 66%     8 - 5 0 - 1 -3.9 -11.7 +7.8
  Jan 08, 2020 92   Davidson W 69-58 70%     9 - 5 1 - 1 +13.9 -1.2 +15.5
  Jan 11, 2020 42   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 65-56 31%     10 - 5 2 - 1 +22.6 +0.8 +21.7
  Jan 15, 2020 249   @ Saint Joseph's W 71-61 84%     11 - 5 3 - 1 +7.9 -3.5 +11.5
  Jan 18, 2020 180   La Salle W 66-63 87%     12 - 5 4 - 1 -0.7 -5.9 +5.3
  Jan 22, 2020 110   Duquesne W 77-55 75%     13 - 5 5 - 1 +23.4 +8.7 +15.4
  Jan 25, 2020 118   @ St. Bonaventure W 81-75 59%     14 - 5 6 - 1 +12.0 +14.6 -2.4
  Jan 28, 2020 153   @ George Mason W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 31, 2020 42   Virginia Commonwealth W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 04, 2020 194   Massachusetts W 80-66 90%    
  Feb 08, 2020 191   @ George Washington W 73-66 75%    
  Feb 11, 2020 9   @ Dayton L 68-79 16%    
  Feb 15, 2020 249   Saint Joseph's W 85-69 94%    
  Feb 22, 2020 92   @ Davidson L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 26, 2020 259   @ Fordham W 68-57 85%    
  Mar 01, 2020 95   Saint Louis W 71-65 71%    
  Mar 04, 2020 9   Dayton L 71-76 33%    
  Mar 07, 2020 194   @ Massachusetts W 77-69 76%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 4.2 3.5 0.6 9.7 1st
2nd 0.0 2.0 11.6 17.8 8.6 0.8 40.9 2nd
3rd 1.1 8.8 11.6 3.3 0.2 25.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.8 6.8 1.7 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.9 1.3 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.3 1.7 1.3 0.1 3.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.2 1.5 7th
8th 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 4.0 10.3 18.9 25.0 22.5 13.0 4.4 0.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
16-2 80.7% 3.5    2.1 1.4 0.0
15-3 32.3% 4.2    1.4 2.4 0.4 0.0
14-4 6.1% 1.4    0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1
13-5 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.7% 9.7 4.3 4.4 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.6% 96.4% 26.8% 69.6% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.1%
16-2 4.4% 89.9% 21.1% 68.7% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.4 87.2%
15-3 13.0% 69.8% 16.5% 53.3% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 2.7 2.7 0.2 3.9 63.9%
14-4 22.5% 48.9% 13.5% 35.4% 10.5 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.7 0.8 11.5 40.9%
13-5 25.0% 29.5% 10.1% 19.4% 10.9 0.0 0.3 1.2 4.6 1.3 17.6 21.5%
12-6 18.9% 14.8% 5.7% 9.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 0.7 16.1 9.6%
11-7 10.3% 8.3% 5.4% 2.9% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 9.5 3.1%
10-8 4.0% 3.8% 2.8% 1.0% 11.5 0.1 0.1 3.8 1.0%
9-9 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 1.1
8-10 0.3% 3.6% 3.6% 12.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 35.7% 10.6% 25.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.8 7.7 15.7 3.3 64.3 28.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 6.7 13.0 17.4 4.3 39.1 13.0 4.3 4.3 4.3