Seton Hall
Big East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.7#8
Expected Predictive Rating+16.4#13
Pace72.8#91
Improvement+1.6#116

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#28
First Shot+5.4#33
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#80
Layup/Dunks+5.3#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#278
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#137
Freethrows+1.3#91
Improvement+0.5#145

Defense
Total Defense+8.9#12
First Shot+8.5#13
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#148
Layups/Dunks+4.8#30
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#47
Freethrows-0.1#189
Improvement+1.1#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.1% 4.5% 1.7%
#1 Seed 21.8% 23.9% 11.2%
Top 2 Seed 49.8% 53.3% 31.9%
Top 4 Seed 84.5% 87.1% 71.0%
Top 6 Seed 96.2% 97.3% 91.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 99.9% 99.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.9% 99.3%
Average Seed 2.9 2.7 3.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.2%
Conference Champion 78.1% 81.5% 60.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round99.8% 99.9% 99.4%
Second Round87.9% 89.1% 82.0%
Sweet Sixteen55.4% 56.7% 48.8%
Elite Eight29.7% 30.9% 23.7%
Final Four14.6% 15.2% 11.3%
Championship Game6.8% 7.1% 5.0%
National Champion3.1% 3.2% 2.4%

Next Game: Providence (Home) - 83.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b6 - 310 - 7
Quad 27 - 118 - 8
Quad 32 - 020 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 330   Wagner W 105-71 99%     1 - 0 +20.8 +11.6 +4.9
  Nov 09, 2019 136   Stony Brook W 74-57 93%     2 - 0 +16.0 +5.6 +11.1
  Nov 14, 2019 4   Michigan St. L 73-76 52%     2 - 1 +12.3 +2.5 +9.9
  Nov 17, 2019 92   @ Saint Louis W 83-66 75%     3 - 1 +25.7 +14.0 +11.1
  Nov 23, 2019 318   Florida A&M W 87-51 99%     4 - 1 +23.7 +3.9 +16.9
  Nov 27, 2019 21   Oregon L 69-71 58%     4 - 2 +11.7 +5.6 +5.9
  Nov 28, 2019 265   Southern Miss W 81-56 97%     5 - 2 +19.2 +10.1 +10.5
  Nov 29, 2019 56   Iowa St. W 84-76 74%     6 - 2 +16.8 +8.8 +7.5
  Dec 08, 2019 56   @ Iowa St. L 66-76 65%     6 - 3 +1.6 -11.7 +14.7
  Dec 14, 2019 32   @ Rutgers L 48-68 54%     6 - 4 -5.3 -13.8 +8.5
  Dec 19, 2019 7   Maryland W 52-48 59%     7 - 4 +17.4 -8.8 +26.5
  Dec 22, 2019 210   Prairie View W 75-55 97%     8 - 4 +14.1 -2.0 +15.2
  Dec 30, 2019 61   @ DePaul W 74-66 66%     9 - 4 1 - 0 +19.3 +4.1 +14.9
  Jan 03, 2020 48   Georgetown W 78-62 78%     10 - 4 2 - 0 +23.4 +0.1 +22.2
  Jan 08, 2020 53   @ Xavier W 83-71 63%     11 - 4 3 - 0 +24.1 +17.0 +7.1
  Jan 11, 2020 27   Marquette W 69-55 72%     12 - 4 4 - 0 +23.8 +3.3 +21.1
  Jan 15, 2020 17   @ Butler W 78-70 45%     13 - 4 5 - 0 +24.9 +16.0 +9.0
  Jan 18, 2020 77   @ St. John's W 82-79 71%     14 - 4 6 - 0 +13.0 +7.2 +5.4
  Jan 22, 2020 62   Providence W 74-64 84%    
  Jan 29, 2020 61   DePaul W 77-67 83%    
  Feb 01, 2020 53   Xavier W 74-65 81%    
  Feb 05, 2020 48   @ Georgetown W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 08, 2020 23   @ Villanova L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 12, 2020 33   Creighton W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 15, 2020 62   @ Providence W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 19, 2020 17   Butler W 68-64 66%    
  Feb 23, 2020 77   St. John's W 79-68 86%    
  Feb 29, 2020 27   @ Marquette W 75-74 51%    
  Mar 04, 2020 23   Villanova W 72-67 69%    
  Mar 07, 2020 33   @ Creighton W 74-73 53%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.1 10.5 19.0 20.5 15.2 7.8 1.7 78.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 4.9 5.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.9 9.8 15.9 21.3 20.9 15.2 7.8 1.7 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
17-1 100.0% 7.8    7.8
16-2 99.9% 15.2    15.1 0.1
15-3 98.2% 20.5    19.2 1.3 0.0
14-4 89.2% 19.0    15.0 3.8 0.1
13-5 66.4% 10.5    5.4 4.3 0.8 0.0
12-6 31.7% 3.1    0.7 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
11-7 5.4% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 78.1% 78.1 65.0 10.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.7% 100.0% 46.2% 53.8% 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 7.8% 100.0% 41.0% 59.0% 1.4 5.2 2.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 15.2% 100.0% 36.7% 63.3% 1.6 7.0 6.7 1.5 0.1 100.0%
15-3 20.9% 100.0% 31.4% 68.6% 2.1 5.5 9.6 4.8 1.0 0.1 100.0%
14-4 21.3% 100.0% 26.9% 73.1% 2.7 2.2 6.6 7.8 3.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.9% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 3.6 0.4 2.1 5.1 5.1 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 9.8% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 4.5 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.7 2.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.9%
11-7 4.9% 99.9% 16.1% 83.8% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 1.8% 98.3% 14.0% 84.3% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1%
9-9 0.6% 93.8% 10.5% 83.3% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.1%
8-10 0.1% 59.5% 7.9% 51.6% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 56.0%
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 28.8% 71.0% 2.9 21.8 28.0 21.3 13.4 7.4 4.4 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 86.3 13.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 79.2 20.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 1.2 76.7 22.4 0.8