Seton Hall
Big East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.7#15
Expected Predictive Rating+12.6#38
Pace72.8#100
Improvement+0.7#94

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#17
First Shot+7.3#25
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#133
Layup/Dunks+7.6#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#139
Freethrows+2.8#49
Improvement+0.4#106

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#33
First Shot+4.0#76
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#44
Layups/Dunks+2.5#98
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#156
Freethrows-0.3#196
Improvement+0.3#129
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.7% 1.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 7.7% 7.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 18.2% 18.2% 1.8%
Top 4 Seed 39.6% 39.6% 8.9%
Top 6 Seed 58.3% 58.4% 25.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.1% 83.1% 44.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.6% 78.7% 40.4%
Average Seed 5.0 5.0 6.6
.500 or above 91.3% 91.3% 76.8%
.500 or above in Conference 84.6% 84.6% 73.2%
Conference Champion 27.6% 27.6% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.6% 5.4%
First Four1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
First Round82.3% 82.4% 44.6%
Second Round61.8% 61.8% 30.4%
Sweet Sixteen34.3% 34.3% 12.5%
Elite Eight16.8% 16.9% 3.6%
Final Four7.9% 7.9% 1.8%
Championship Game3.6% 3.6% 1.8%
National Champion1.8% 1.8% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 8
Quad 26 - 213 - 10
Quad 33 - 016 - 10
Quad 44 - 020 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 333   Wagner W 105-71 99%     1 - 0 +19.1 +12.1 +2.6
  Nov 09, 2019 178   Stony Brook W 74-57 95%     2 - 0 +13.2 +5.0 +8.9
  Nov 14, 2019 1   Michigan St. L 73-76 37%     2 - 1 +15.0 +4.2 +11.0
  Nov 17, 2019 115   @ Saint Louis W 83-66 80%     3 - 1 +22.8 +11.2 +10.9
  Nov 23, 2019 339   Florida A&M W 86-55 99.9%   
  Nov 27, 2019 12   Oregon L 70-71 46%    
  Dec 08, 2019 37   @ Iowa St. W 76-75 51%    
  Dec 14, 2019 92   @ Rutgers W 75-69 72%    
  Dec 19, 2019 8   Maryland W 74-73 52%    
  Dec 22, 2019 270   Prairie View W 85-62 98%    
  Dec 30, 2019 75   @ DePaul W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 03, 2020 76   Georgetown W 86-75 84%    
  Jan 08, 2020 35   @ Xavier W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 11, 2020 26   Marquette W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 15, 2020 36   @ Butler W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 18, 2020 89   @ St. John's W 81-75 70%    
  Jan 22, 2020 32   Providence W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 29, 2020 75   DePaul W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 01, 2020 35   Xavier W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 05, 2020 76   @ Georgetown W 83-78 68%    
  Feb 08, 2020 14   @ Villanova L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 12, 2020 43   Creighton W 80-73 72%    
  Feb 15, 2020 32   @ Providence L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 19, 2020 36   Butler W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 23, 2020 89   St. John's W 84-72 86%    
  Feb 29, 2020 26   @ Marquette L 74-75 47%    
  Mar 04, 2020 14   Villanova W 73-71 58%    
  Mar 07, 2020 43   @ Creighton W 77-76 52%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 4.6 7.1 7.3 4.4 2.0 0.5 27.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.2 6.4 6.3 3.4 1.0 0.1 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.3 5.9 5.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 4.7 3.8 0.9 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 1.3 3.9 3.0 0.6 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.5 4.3 6.1 8.6 10.9 12.6 14.0 12.5 10.7 8.2 4.4 2.0 0.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0 0.0
16-2 98.6% 4.4    4.0 0.3
15-3 88.3% 7.3    5.7 1.4 0.1
14-4 66.3% 7.1    4.3 2.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 37.0% 4.6    1.6 2.2 0.7 0.1
12-6 10.9% 1.5    0.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.6% 27.6 18.5 7.4 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 65.2% 34.8% 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.0% 100.0% 53.7% 46.3% 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.4% 100.0% 46.6% 53.4% 1.7 2.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.2% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 2.3 2.1 3.3 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 100.0%
14-4 10.7% 100.0% 33.1% 66.9% 3.1 1.2 2.8 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.5% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 3.9 0.3 1.7 3.4 3.1 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 14.0% 99.4% 19.2% 80.2% 5.3 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.7 3.3 2.7 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
11-7 12.6% 96.4% 14.3% 82.1% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.2 2.6 2.3 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 95.8%
10-8 10.9% 88.7% 13.0% 75.7% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 1.2 87.0%
9-9 8.6% 67.3% 8.2% 59.1% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.8 64.3%
8-10 6.1% 37.2% 5.8% 31.4% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.8 33.3%
7-11 4.3% 17.4% 4.2% 13.3% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.5 13.8%
6-12 2.5% 3.0% 1.3% 1.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 1.7%
5-13 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.1%
4-14 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 83.1% 20.6% 62.4% 5.0 7.7 10.5 11.0 10.4 9.9 8.8 7.7 6.0 4.8 3.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 16.9 78.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 94.3 5.7