South Carolina Upstate
Big South
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.7#320
Expected Predictive Rating-8.3#296
Pace70.4#142
Improvement+3.2#54

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#303
First Shot-3.0#275
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#295
Layup/Dunks-3.0#287
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#91
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#226
Freethrows-0.4#206
Improvement+3.1#39

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#312
First Shot-5.0#323
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#162
Layups/Dunks-2.1#263
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#162
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#217
Freethrows-2.6#317
Improvement+0.1#173
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.7% 1.5% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 17.6% 30.2% 8.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.8% 6.7% 20.4%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Away) - 41.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 10
Quad 410 - 1011 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 133   @ College of Charleston L 55-74 9%     0 - 1 -14.2 -15.4 +0.6
  Nov 11, 2019 298   @ NC Central L 64-73 32%     0 - 2 -13.8 -15.4 +2.6
  Nov 13, 2019 66   @ Virginia Tech L 57-80 4%     0 - 3 -12.3 -4.5 -10.0
  Nov 18, 2019 81   @ Akron L 45-76 5%     0 - 4 -21.4 -22.3 -0.7
  Nov 20, 2019 8   @ Louisville L 50-76 1%     0 - 5 -6.8 -6.6 -3.6
  Nov 23, 2019 235   Youngstown St. L 61-66 40%     0 - 6 -12.1 -18.5 +6.5
  Nov 30, 2019 155   @ Charlotte L 47-83 12%     0 - 7 -32.8 -18.6 -16.1
  Dec 03, 2019 301   Eastern Kentucky W 79-67 56%     1 - 7 +0.8 -12.3 +11.2
  Dec 08, 2019 80   @ Furman L 72-84 5%     1 - 8 -2.3 +6.1 -8.8
  Dec 18, 2019 324   @ South Carolina St. W 73-70 39%     2 - 8 -3.9 +0.0 -3.7
  Dec 29, 2019 296   VMI W 91-82 53%     3 - 8 -1.5 +9.3 -11.0
  Jan 02, 2020 272   @ Charleston Southern L 75-89 27%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -17.4 -2.9 -13.9
  Jan 04, 2020 316   @ Longwood W 73-56 38%     4 - 9 1 - 1 +10.6 -0.4 +11.3
  Jan 08, 2020 311   Hampton W 83-73 58%     5 - 9 2 - 1 -1.6 -13.1 +10.0
  Jan 16, 2020 168   Radford L 59-63 27%     5 - 10 2 - 2 -7.3 -10.6 +2.9
  Jan 18, 2020 247   @ Gardner-Webb L 67-83 23%     5 - 11 2 - 3 -18.1 -8.0 -10.2
  Jan 20, 2020 343   High Point L 62-70 74%     5 - 12 2 - 4 -24.4 -9.2 -16.7
  Jan 23, 2020 128   @ Winthrop L 53-79 9%     5 - 13 2 - 5 -20.8 -13.4 -9.3
  Jan 25, 2020 271   UNC Asheville W 80-63 47%     6 - 13 3 - 5 +8.0 +1.9 +6.1
  Jan 30, 2020 326   @ Presbyterian L 69-71 41%    
  Feb 01, 2020 273   Campbell L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 06, 2020 271   @ UNC Asheville L 71-77 27%    
  Feb 08, 2020 247   Gardner-Webb L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 10, 2020 272   Charleston Southern L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 15, 2020 343   @ High Point W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 20, 2020 316   Longwood W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 22, 2020 168   @ Radford L 62-74 13%    
  Feb 27, 2020 128   Winthrop L 70-79 20%    
  Feb 29, 2020 311   @ Hampton L 77-81 37%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.6 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.5 4.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.1 4.3 5.0 0.7 10.0 5th
6th 2.2 8.0 1.7 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.8 8.6 4.8 0.1 14.3 7th
8th 0.3 5.6 9.2 0.8 15.9 8th
9th 0.2 3.9 10.1 2.7 0.0 17.0 9th
10th 0.1 2.4 7.6 3.9 0.1 14.0 10th
11th 1.0 3.0 2.2 0.2 6.3 11th
Total 1.1 5.5 14.0 20.6 22.9 18.3 11.4 4.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 33.3% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.3
11-7 1.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.1 1.1
10-8 4.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 4.6
9-9 11.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 11.2
8-10 18.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 18.2
7-11 22.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 22.8
6-12 20.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 20.5
5-13 14.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
4-14 5.5% 5.5
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%