St. Mary's
West Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#38
Expected Predictive Rating+10.8#46
Pace60.9#342
Improvement+0.5#163

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#13
First Shot+7.2#15
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#98
Layup/Dunks+3.5#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#211
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#53
Freethrows+0.6#127
Improvement+0.7#137

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#89
First Shot+2.5#91
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#119
Layups/Dunks-0.9#212
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#31
Freethrows+1.6#75
Improvement-0.1#194
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 2.0% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 5.1% 6.0% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.4% 62.4% 45.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.1% 56.2% 39.3%
Average Seed 9.5 9.4 10.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.7% 96.9%
Conference Champion 4.1% 4.7% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four16.3% 16.0% 17.8%
First Round51.9% 55.1% 37.3%
Second Round25.7% 27.8% 16.3%
Sweet Sixteen9.3% 10.1% 5.8%
Elite Eight3.8% 4.1% 2.0%
Final Four1.3% 1.5% 0.6%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: San Francisco (Home) - 82.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 02 - 4
Quad 25 - 17 - 4
Quad 38 - 315 - 7
Quad 49 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 24   Wisconsin W 65-63 OT 44%     1 - 0 +15.0 +1.7 +13.4
  Nov 11, 2019 143   Winthrop L 59-61 88%     1 - 1 -3.3 -15.3 +11.9
  Nov 14, 2019 305   Long Beach St. W 81-63 97%     2 - 1 +6.5 +8.1 -0.4
  Nov 17, 2019 320   Cal Poly W 79-48 98%     3 - 1 +18.6 +7.5 +13.2
  Nov 20, 2019 132   Fresno St. W 68-58 81%     4 - 1 +12.2 +13.2 +1.6
  Nov 23, 2019 269   Lehigh W 77-66 96%     5 - 1 +2.1 +4.0 -1.1
  Nov 29, 2019 58   Utah St. W 81-73 71%     6 - 1 +13.7 +10.3 +3.4
  Dec 01, 2019 211   Nebraska Omaha W 75-66 94%     7 - 1 +3.1 +7.0 -2.7
  Dec 05, 2019 188   Northern Illinois W 61-49 92%     8 - 1 +7.9 -0.3 +10.5
  Dec 08, 2019 9   Dayton L 68-78 34%     8 - 2 +5.6 +6.6 -1.9
  Dec 14, 2019 177   @ California W 89-77 81%     9 - 2 +14.3 +22.1 -7.2
  Dec 18, 2019 70   Arizona St. W 96-56 65%     10 - 2 +47.5 +26.7 +20.0
  Dec 21, 2019 99   Nevada W 68-63 74%     11 - 2 +9.8 +2.3 +7.8
  Dec 28, 2019 197   Seattle W 84-58 93%     12 - 2 +20.7 +13.8 +8.3
  Jan 02, 2020 103   @ San Francisco W 69-58 65%     13 - 2 1 - 0 +18.4 -2.1 +20.7
  Jan 04, 2020 160   @ Pacific L 99-107 4OT 78%     13 - 3 1 - 1 -4.8 -0.5 -2.0
  Jan 09, 2020 37   BYU W 87-84 OT 61%     14 - 3 2 - 1 +11.6 +8.9 +2.5
  Jan 11, 2020 142   Santa Clara L 66-67 88%     14 - 4 2 - 2 -2.3 -5.6 +3.2
  Jan 18, 2020 148   @ Pepperdine W 78-69 76%     15 - 4 3 - 2 +12.9 +11.4 +2.4
  Jan 23, 2020 103   San Francisco W 77-67 82%    
  Jan 25, 2020 196   @ Loyola Marymount W 69-58 85%    
  Jan 30, 2020 277   Portland W 76-55 98%    
  Feb 01, 2020 37   @ BYU L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 06, 2020 193   @ San Diego W 72-62 83%    
  Feb 08, 2020 3   Gonzaga L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 15, 2020 160   Pacific W 70-56 91%    
  Feb 20, 2020 196   Loyola Marymount W 72-55 94%    
  Feb 22, 2020 193   San Diego W 75-59 93%    
  Feb 27, 2020 142   @ Santa Clara W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 29, 2020 3   @ Gonzaga L 67-78 16%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 11 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.2 4.1 1st
2nd 0.2 3.3 14.7 18.7 6.2 43.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 4.2 15.6 15.5 3.7 39.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.0 3.1 0.3 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.0 0.1 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.4 10.5 22.1 30.5 22.9 8.6 1.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 1.2    0.7 0.5
13-3 27.6% 2.4    0.5 1.6 0.3
12-4 2.1% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 1.2 2.3 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 1.2% 99.4% 34.4% 65.0% 3.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
13-3 8.6% 96.9% 22.3% 74.6% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.3 96.1%
12-4 22.9% 84.8% 17.6% 67.2% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.8 4.8 5.7 3.8 0.2 3.5 81.5%
11-5 30.5% 61.6% 13.1% 48.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 5.5 9.0 1.2 0.0 11.7 55.8%
10-6 22.1% 39.5% 9.7% 29.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.4 1.5 0.0 13.4 33.0%
9-7 10.5% 23.7% 7.8% 15.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.6 8.0 17.3%
8-8 3.4% 13.1% 5.6% 7.5% 11.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.9 7.9%
7-9 0.7% 7.8% 5.6% 2.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.3%
6-10 0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 59.4% 13.6% 45.9% 9.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 3.3 5.2 8.6 13.6 20.0 3.7 0.0 40.6 53.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 2.4 23.7 29.9 32.0 12.1 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 4.3 0.8 9.2 16.7 33.7 21.3 9.4 8.4 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 98.6% 5.4 1.9 7.2 9.2 31.4 31.9 15.0 1.9