St. Mary's
West Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#34
Expected Predictive Rating+6.7#85
Pace60.0#350
Improvement-0.5#245

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#49
First Shot+7.8#20
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#286
Layup/Dunks+2.7#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#135
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.4#13
Freethrows-3.9#329
Improvement+0.4#107

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#39
First Shot+6.3#31
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#175
Layups/Dunks-4.3#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#164
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.0#6
Freethrows+1.1#130
Improvement-0.9#293
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 2.8% 3.3% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 8.7% 10.0% 3.0%
Top 6 Seed 15.7% 17.9% 6.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.6% 62.9% 45.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.2% 52.7% 35.3%
Average Seed 8.2 8.1 9.3
.500 or above 98.9% 99.4% 97.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 97.4% 94.8%
Conference Champion 23.8% 25.7% 15.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four10.1% 10.0% 10.7%
First Round55.0% 58.4% 40.5%
Second Round31.4% 33.9% 20.5%
Sweet Sixteen12.6% 13.8% 7.1%
Elite Eight5.2% 5.8% 2.5%
Final Four2.2% 2.5% 1.0%
Championship Game0.9% 1.1% 0.3%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.1%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Neutral) - 81.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 13 - 3
Quad 24 - 27 - 5
Quad 38 - 215 - 7
Quad 49 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 29   Wisconsin W 65-63 OT 47%     1 - 0 +14.6 +1.6 +13.0
  Nov 11, 2019 145   Winthrop L 59-61 89%     1 - 1 -3.8 -14.0 +10.1
  Nov 14, 2019 252   Long Beach St. W 81-63 95%     2 - 1 +10.2 +9.2 +2.1
  Nov 17, 2019 314   Cal Poly W 79-48 98%     3 - 1 +18.1 +3.4 +16.8
  Nov 20, 2019 123   Fresno St. W 69-60 81%    
  Nov 23, 2019 236   Lehigh W 79-60 96%    
  Nov 29, 2019 18   Utah St. W 66-65 54%    
  Dec 01, 2019 208   Nebraska Omaha W 76-59 94%    
  Dec 05, 2019 156   Northern Illinois W 70-55 91%    
  Dec 08, 2019 57   Dayton W 68-65 59%    
  Dec 14, 2019 137   @ California W 67-60 74%    
  Dec 18, 2019 52   Arizona St. W 72-70 59%    
  Dec 21, 2019 126   Nevada W 73-63 81%    
  Dec 28, 2019 240   Seattle W 73-54 95%    
  Jan 02, 2020 85   @ San Francisco W 68-65 59%    
  Jan 04, 2020 243   @ Pacific W 67-54 88%    
  Jan 09, 2020 71   BYU W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 11, 2020 140   Santa Clara W 71-58 88%    
  Jan 18, 2020 116   @ Pepperdine W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 23, 2020 85   San Francisco W 71-62 78%    
  Jan 25, 2020 175   @ Loyola Marymount W 65-56 80%    
  Jan 30, 2020 246   Portland W 73-54 96%    
  Feb 01, 2020 71   @ BYU W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 06, 2020 159   @ San Diego W 67-58 79%    
  Feb 08, 2020 5   Gonzaga L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 15, 2020 243   Pacific W 70-51 95%    
  Feb 20, 2020 175   Loyola Marymount W 68-53 91%    
  Feb 22, 2020 159   San Diego W 70-55 90%    
  Feb 27, 2020 140   @ Santa Clara W 68-61 73%    
  Feb 29, 2020 5   @ Gonzaga L 64-73 22%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 12 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.7 5.1 8.7 6.6 1.6 23.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 7.7 13.7 11.9 4.6 39.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.1 7.5 3.2 0.3 19.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.7 1.0 0.1 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 4.0 7.3 11.8 16.5 18.6 17.2 13.3 6.6 1.6 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
15-1 100.0% 6.6    5.3 1.2
14-2 65.2% 8.7    4.7 3.9 0.1
13-3 29.5% 5.1    1.6 3.0 0.5
12-4 8.9% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.0
11-5 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 23.8% 23.8 13.6 8.9 1.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.6% 99.9% 44.8% 55.1% 2.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-1 6.6% 97.5% 44.8% 52.7% 4.3 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 95.4%
14-2 13.3% 95.1% 32.5% 62.6% 6.6 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.5 2.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.7 92.7%
13-3 17.2% 83.6% 25.6% 58.0% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 2.8 77.9%
12-4 18.6% 66.2% 19.4% 46.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.0 4.2 0.9 0.0 6.3 58.1%
11-5 16.5% 45.0% 13.7% 31.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.4 1.1 0.0 9.0 36.3%
10-6 11.8% 28.0% 13.5% 14.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.7 0.9 0.0 8.5 16.8%
9-7 7.3% 14.8% 5.7% 9.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 6.2 9.7%
8-8 4.0% 7.1% 4.1% 3.0% 11.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.8 3.1%
7-9 1.9% 4.0% 4.0% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.1%
6-10 0.7% 5.1% 5.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-11 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 0.3
4-12 0.1% 1.2% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 59.6% 20.5% 39.1% 8.2 1.0 1.9 2.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 5.0 5.4 7.2 9.3 13.1 3.9 0.1 0.0 40.4 49.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.7 37.2 52.4 9.7 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.7 45.6 42.2 7.8 4.4