The Citadel
Southern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.7#309
Expected Predictive Rating-10.3#316
Pace83.1#6
Improvement-0.3#196

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#268
First Shot-2.4#257
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#226
Layup/Dunks-2.7#282
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#330
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#43
Freethrows-0.5#215
Improvement-4.1#339

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#321
First Shot-4.1#307
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#298
Layups/Dunks-2.2#267
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#298
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#198
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement+3.8#18
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 63.6% 43.6% 69.9%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Home) - 23.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 50 - 9
Quad 31 - 61 - 15
Quad 45 - 76 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 272   UNC Asheville L 76-91 51%     0 - 1 -24.0 -7.2 -15.9
  Nov 12, 2019 83   @ Georgia L 86-95 6%     0 - 2 +0.5 +2.3 -0.3
  Nov 16, 2019 274   Campbell L 73-87 53%     0 - 3 -23.4 -9.0 -13.4
  Nov 19, 2019 332   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 74-69 47%     1 - 3 -2.9 -10.5 +7.2
  Nov 20, 2019 25   @ Illinois L 57-85 2%     1 - 4 -12.1 -7.5 -5.2
  Nov 23, 2019 334   @ Marist W 79-75 49%     2 - 4 -4.4 +1.5 -6.1
  Dec 04, 2019 64   East Tennessee St. L 84-96 11%     2 - 5 0 - 1 -7.0 +7.5 -13.5
  Dec 19, 2019 315   @ Longwood W 102-99 3OT 41%     3 - 5 -3.4 -3.1 -1.2
  Dec 22, 2019 51   @ North Carolina St. L 63-83 3%     3 - 6 -7.4 -10.1 +4.1
  Jan 01, 2020 287   @ Samford L 68-69 32%     3 - 7 0 - 2 -5.0 -13.6 +8.7
  Jan 04, 2020 158   Western Carolina L 82-86 28%     3 - 8 0 - 3 -6.7 -2.8 -3.6
  Jan 11, 2020 136   @ Wofford L 71-73 11%     3 - 9 0 - 4 +2.8 -5.5 +8.4
  Jan 15, 2020 84   UNC Greensboro L 69-79 13%     3 - 10 0 - 5 -6.4 -10.1 +5.3
  Jan 18, 2020 297   @ VMI L 79-88 35%     3 - 11 0 - 6 -13.7 -4.3 -8.7
  Jan 22, 2020 156   @ Chattanooga L 69-92 14%     3 - 12 0 - 7 -19.8 -8.5 -9.4
  Jan 25, 2020 80   Furman L 54-78 12%     3 - 13 0 - 8 -20.1 -21.6 +3.5
  Jan 29, 2020 136   Wofford L 71-79 24%    
  Feb 01, 2020 221   @ Mercer L 74-82 23%    
  Feb 05, 2020 84   @ UNC Greensboro L 64-82 5%    
  Feb 08, 2020 297   VMI W 80-78 58%    
  Feb 12, 2020 64   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-85 3%    
  Feb 15, 2020 287   Samford W 84-83 55%    
  Feb 19, 2020 156   Chattanooga L 74-80 30%    
  Feb 22, 2020 158   @ Western Carolina L 80-92 13%    
  Feb 26, 2020 221   Mercer L 77-79 41%    
  Feb 29, 2020 80   @ Furman L 69-87 4%    
Projected Record 6 - 20 3 - 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.3 1.9 7th
8th 0.1 3.2 7.7 4.5 0.8 0.1 16.3 8th
9th 1.1 10.5 17.0 7.4 1.0 0.0 37.0 9th
10th 5.5 16.6 16.6 5.5 0.5 44.6 10th
Total 5.5 17.8 27.1 25.7 15.6 6.3 1.6 0.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 0.4% 0.4
6-12 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 6.3% 6.3
4-14 15.6% 15.6
3-15 25.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 25.7
2-16 27.1% 27.1
1-17 17.8% 17.8
0-18 5.5% 5.5
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.4%