The Citadel
Southern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#307
Expected Predictive Rating-18.4#343
Pace82.6#13
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#174
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-8.9#350
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 16.0
.500 or above 1.7% 2.7% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 6.1% 8.0% 3.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 38.9% 33.6% 45.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 54.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 31 - 61 - 14
Quad 45 - 76 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 278   UNC Asheville L 76-91 51%     0 - 1 -24.1 -7.7 -15.4
  Nov 12, 2019 67   @ Georgia L 86-95 4%     0 - 2 +1.9 +3.4 +0.0
  Nov 16, 2019 289   Campbell W 79-78 54%    
  Nov 19, 2019 301   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 82-86 36%    
  Nov 20, 2019 52   @ Illinois L 76-97 3%    
  Nov 23, 2019 330   @ Marist L 75-76 46%    
  Dec 04, 2019 65   East Tennessee St. L 76-90 11%    
  Dec 19, 2019 243   @ Longwood L 80-87 25%    
  Dec 22, 2019 35   @ North Carolina St. L 77-101 2%    
  Jan 01, 2020 192   @ Samford L 81-91 19%    
  Jan 04, 2020 182   Western Carolina L 85-89 34%    
  Jan 11, 2020 108   @ Wofford L 76-91 9%    
  Jan 15, 2020 89   UNC Greensboro L 74-86 15%    
  Jan 18, 2020 319   @ VMI L 83-85 43%    
  Jan 22, 2020 244   @ Chattanooga L 76-83 26%    
  Jan 25, 2020 56   Furman L 73-88 10%    
  Jan 29, 2020 108   Wofford L 79-88 21%    
  Feb 01, 2020 234   @ Mercer L 85-93 25%    
  Feb 05, 2020 89   @ UNC Greensboro L 71-89 7%    
  Feb 08, 2020 319   VMI W 86-82 64%    
  Feb 12, 2020 65   @ East Tennessee St. L 73-93 5%    
  Feb 15, 2020 192   Samford L 84-88 36%    
  Feb 19, 2020 244   Chattanooga L 79-80 46%    
  Feb 22, 2020 182   @ Western Carolina L 82-92 19%    
  Feb 26, 2020 234   Mercer L 88-90 44%    
  Feb 29, 2020 56   @ Furman L 70-91 4%    
Projected Record 6 - 20 4 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 4.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.2 2.4 1.0 0.1 7.6 6th
7th 0.4 2.4 4.9 3.7 0.8 0.1 12.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 5.0 7.7 4.3 0.9 0.1 19.3 8th
9th 0.5 3.7 9.2 8.8 3.7 0.6 0.1 26.5 9th
10th 2.7 7.5 9.5 5.6 1.8 0.1 0.0 27.2 10th
Total 2.7 8.0 13.3 16.0 15.9 13.9 10.7 8.4 5.0 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 0.0%
13-5 12.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.2
12-6 0.2% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.7% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
10-8 1.7% 1.7
9-9 3.2% 3.2
8-10 5.0% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.9
7-11 8.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 8.4
6-12 10.7% 10.7
5-13 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
4-14 15.9% 15.9
3-15 16.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.0
2-16 13.3% 13.3
1-17 8.0% 8.0
0-18 2.7% 2.7
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%