William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#153
Expected Predictive Rating+11.4#49
Pace70.8#150
Improvement+1.9#21

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#123
First Shot+3.3#87
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#252
Layup/Dunks+2.0#109
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#82
Freethrows-0.4#200
Improvement+1.0#52

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#205
First Shot-2.1#233
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#132
Layups/Dunks-3.1#266
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#93
Freethrows+0.6#157
Improvement+0.9#73
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 15.8% 11.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.5 13.0 13.6
.500 or above 80.0% 92.1% 77.1%
.500 or above in Conference 75.9% 83.4% 74.2%
Conference Champion 15.5% 21.8% 13.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.4% 2.2%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round12.6% 15.5% 11.9%
Second Round1.3% 2.3% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 19.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 57 - 10
Quad 412 - 319 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 330   @ High Point W 70-56 80%     1 - 0 +5.6 -7.3 +12.1
  Nov 08, 2019 230   @ American W 79-70 55%     2 - 0 +8.3 -0.3 +8.2
  Nov 12, 2019 125   @ Wofford W 80-79 32%     3 - 0 +6.3 +13.4 -7.0
  Nov 15, 2019 259   Hampton W 78-65 79%     4 - 0 +4.8 -1.9 +6.6
  Nov 18, 2019 39   @ Oklahoma L 70-75 10%     4 - 1 +9.3 +0.9 +8.8
  Nov 21, 2019 83   @ Stanford L 69-78 19%    
  Nov 26, 2019 210   Morehead St. W 77-71 71%    
  Nov 30, 2019 105   @ Buffalo L 77-84 27%    
  Dec 03, 2019 111   Old Dominion W 66-65 50%    
  Dec 08, 2019 286   @ Fairfield W 69-65 65%    
  Dec 19, 2019 188   @ Saint Joseph's L 83-84 46%    
  Dec 22, 2019 242   St. Francis (PA) W 79-74 67%    
  Dec 30, 2019 312   @ Elon W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 02, 2020 192   @ Hofstra L 76-77 47%    
  Jan 04, 2020 104   @ Northeastern L 71-78 28%    
  Jan 09, 2020 281   UNC Wilmington W 83-73 81%    
  Jan 11, 2020 127   College of Charleston W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 16, 2020 154   @ Delaware L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 18, 2020 257   @ Drexel W 75-72 58%    
  Jan 23, 2020 239   James Madison W 84-76 76%    
  Jan 25, 2020 164   Towson W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 30, 2020 104   Northeastern L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 01, 2020 192   Hofstra W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 06, 2020 127   @ College of Charleston L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 08, 2020 281   @ UNC Wilmington W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 13, 2020 257   Drexel W 78-69 78%    
  Feb 15, 2020 154   Delaware W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 20, 2020 164   @ Towson L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 22, 2020 239   @ James Madison W 81-79 56%    
  Feb 29, 2020 312   Elon W 79-66 88%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.8 4.0 4.1 2.5 0.9 0.2 15.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 4.6 5.5 3.3 0.8 0.0 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 5.8 5.5 2.0 0.2 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.6 5.3 1.3 0.1 14.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 5.1 4.1 0.7 0.1 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.4 3.2 0.7 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.1 4.2 6.3 9.5 11.3 12.4 13.5 12.4 10.4 7.5 4.8 2.6 0.9 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 99.1% 2.5    2.3 0.2
15-3 84.4% 4.1    3.0 1.0 0.1
14-4 53.3% 4.0    2.3 1.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 27.1% 2.8    0.8 1.2 0.7 0.1
12-6 7.3% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.5% 15.5 9.6 4.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 51.3% 47.0% 4.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.2%
17-1 0.9% 45.8% 39.5% 6.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 10.4%
16-2 2.6% 40.5% 38.6% 1.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.5 3.0%
15-3 4.8% 33.0% 32.9% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.2 0.2%
14-4 7.5% 23.0% 23.0% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.0 5.7 0.1%
13-5 10.4% 21.2% 21.1% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 8.2 0.2%
12-6 12.4% 17.1% 17.1% 13.7 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 10.3
11-7 13.5% 10.4% 10.4% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 12.1
10-8 12.4% 7.9% 7.9% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 11.4
9-9 11.3% 6.1% 6.1% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 10.6
8-10 9.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.2
7-11 6.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3
6-12 4.2% 0.9% 0.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
5-13 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.7% 12.5% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.2 3.8 2.0 0.2 87.3 0.2%