William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#143
Expected Predictive Rating+5.9#93
Pace70.5#151
Improvement+2.9#53

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#104
First Shot+3.4#76
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#242
Layup/Dunks+4.0#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#301
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#83
Freethrows-0.7#226
Improvement+2.0#65

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#190
First Shot-2.6#250
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#57
Layups/Dunks-2.8#284
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#246
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#177
Freethrows+1.1#121
Improvement+0.9#127
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.8% 21.8% 17.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 58.3% 68.2% 43.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round19.8% 21.8% 17.0%
Second Round2.1% 2.5% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Away) - 59.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 38 - 49 - 7
Quad 413 - 222 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 342   @ High Point W 70-56 86%     1 - 0 +3.9 -11.8 +14.9
  Nov 08, 2019 215   @ American W 79-70 58%     2 - 0 +8.6 +1.8 +6.4
  Nov 12, 2019 138   @ Wofford W 80-79 38%     3 - 0 +5.7 +14.7 -8.9
  Nov 15, 2019 329   Hampton W 78-65 91%     4 - 0 -0.6 -6.6 +5.9
  Nov 18, 2019 52   @ Oklahoma L 70-75 16%     4 - 1 +7.3 -0.8 +8.3
  Nov 21, 2019 41   @ Stanford L 50-81 13%     4 - 2 -17.2 -12.6 -4.4
  Nov 26, 2019 290   Morehead St. W 95-84 86%     5 - 2 +0.7 +14.6 -14.1
  Nov 30, 2019 151   @ Buffalo L 77-88 41%     5 - 3 -7.0 -3.7 -2.1
  Dec 03, 2019 170   Old Dominion W 63-46 68%     6 - 3 +13.8 -5.3 +19.3
  Dec 08, 2019 249   @ Fairfield W 62-58 63%     7 - 3 +2.0 -1.7 +4.2
  Dec 19, 2019 254   @ Saint Joseph's L 69-84 65%     7 - 4 -17.4 -8.3 -8.7
  Dec 22, 2019 186   St. Francis (PA) L 72-78 60%     7 - 5 -7.0 -4.5 -2.6
  Dec 30, 2019 314   @ Elon W 74-73 78%     8 - 5 1 - 0 -5.4 +4.3 -9.6
  Jan 02, 2020 148   @ Hofstra W 88-61 40%     9 - 5 2 - 0 +31.1 +13.8 +16.9
  Jan 04, 2020 128   @ Northeastern W 66-64 36%     10 - 5 3 - 0 +7.2 -0.9 +8.2
  Jan 09, 2020 321   UNC Wilmington W 79-63 90%     11 - 5 4 - 0 +3.1 +1.1 +2.2
  Jan 11, 2020 123   College of Charleston W 67-56 57%     12 - 5 5 - 0 +10.8 +2.7 +9.9
  Jan 16, 2020 199   @ Delaware W 77-68 54%     13 - 5 6 - 0 +9.5 +6.3 +3.6
  Jan 18, 2020 228   @ Drexel W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 23, 2020 269   James Madison W 85-75 84%    
  Jan 25, 2020 184   Towson W 73-68 69%    
  Jan 30, 2020 128   Northeastern W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 01, 2020 148   Hofstra W 77-74 62%    
  Feb 06, 2020 123   @ College of Charleston L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 08, 2020 321   @ UNC Wilmington W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 13, 2020 228   Drexel W 77-69 78%    
  Feb 15, 2020 199   Delaware W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 20, 2020 184   @ Towson L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 22, 2020 269   @ James Madison W 83-78 66%    
  Feb 29, 2020 314   Elon W 79-65 90%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 4.1 14.1 18.5 13.7 6.1 1.3 58.3 1st
2nd 0.2 3.0 9.4 7.2 1.5 0.1 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.6 3.6 0.3 11.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.0 0.3 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 5.7 11.2 17.4 21.7 20.0 13.8 6.1 1.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 100.0% 6.1    6.1 0.0
16-2 99.6% 13.7    13.0 0.8
15-3 92.6% 18.5    13.4 4.9 0.3
14-4 65.0% 14.1    6.1 6.3 1.6 0.1
13-5 23.8% 4.1    0.7 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 58.3% 58.3 40.6 13.8 3.4 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 35.4% 35.1% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.5%
17-1 6.1% 33.7% 33.7% 12.6 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.1 4.0
16-2 13.8% 27.8% 27.8% 13.0 0.0 0.7 2.3 0.8 0.1 9.9
15-3 20.0% 24.6% 24.6% 13.3 0.4 2.5 1.7 0.2 15.1
14-4 21.7% 19.1% 19.1% 13.7 0.1 1.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.5
13-5 17.4% 15.0% 15.0% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.0 14.8
12-6 11.2% 10.7% 10.7% 14.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 10.0
11-7 5.7% 8.1% 8.1% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 5.2
10-8 2.2% 7.0% 7.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.1
9-9 0.6% 2.4% 2.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
8-10 0.1% 5.1% 5.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.8% 19.8% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 2.4 8.3 6.7 2.2 0.1 80.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 11.9 0.9 18.9 66.2 13.2 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 1.2% 12.0 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%