Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#64
Expected Predictive Rating-1.1#190
Pace66.9#244
Improvement+0.0#189

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#53
First Shot+2.4#109
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#44
Layup/Dunks-2.6#271
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#194
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#78
Freethrows+2.0#65
Improvement-0.5#251

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#98
First Shot+0.7#148
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#75
Layups/Dunks-1.5#243
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#176
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#178
Freethrows+1.8#88
Improvement+0.5#132
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.9% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 2.6% 5.5% 1.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.8% 31.4% 13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.9% 28.7% 11.7%
Average Seed 8.8 8.5 9.1
.500 or above 56.5% 74.7% 50.5%
.500 or above in Conference 54.6% 64.5% 51.3%
Conference Champion 2.5% 4.1% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 2.1% 3.7%
First Four2.9% 4.1% 2.5%
First Round16.5% 29.3% 12.2%
Second Round8.4% 16.1% 5.8%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 6.0% 2.0%
Elite Eight1.1% 2.4% 0.7%
Final Four0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois (Away) - 25.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 9
Quad 24 - 57 - 14
Quad 33 - 210 - 15
Quad 46 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 297   Cal St. Northridge W 68-52 95%     1 - 0 +5.3 -1.6 +9.2
  Nov 16, 2021 285   High Point W 70-61 94%     2 - 0 -0.8 -4.4 +3.8
  Nov 22, 2021 43   St. Mary's L 59-62 40%     2 - 1 +7.1 +0.5 +6.3
  Nov 24, 2021 81   Texas A&M L 67-73 54%     2 - 2 +0.6 -3.1 +3.9
  Nov 29, 2021 33   @ Illinois L 70-77 25%    
  Dec 03, 2021 133   @ Boston College W 69-67 58%    
  Dec 11, 2021 12   Kentucky L 70-75 32%    
  Dec 18, 2021 30   Indiana L 66-71 33%    
  Dec 20, 2021 294   Western Michigan W 80-62 95%    
  Dec 22, 2021 317   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 80-61 96%    
  Dec 28, 2021 213   @ Pittsburgh W 71-64 73%    
  Jan 01, 2022 4   Duke L 70-78 24%    
  Jan 05, 2022 44   North Carolina W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 08, 2022 84   @ Georgia Tech L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 12, 2022 45   Clemson W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 15, 2022 28   @ Virginia Tech L 64-72 22%    
  Jan 17, 2022 314   @ Howard W 83-70 88%    
  Jan 22, 2022 36   @ Louisville L 65-72 27%    
  Jan 26, 2022 65   North Carolina St. W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 29, 2022 39   Virginia L 58-59 50%    
  Feb 02, 2022 106   @ Miami (FL) W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 05, 2022 65   @ North Carolina St. L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 09, 2022 36   Louisville L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 12, 2022 45   @ Clemson L 63-68 32%    
  Feb 16, 2022 133   Boston College W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 19, 2022 85   @ Wake Forest L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 22, 2022 78   Syracuse W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 26, 2022 84   Georgia Tech W 71-67 65%    
  Mar 02, 2022 24   @ Florida St. L 67-76 22%    
  Mar 05, 2022 213   Pittsburgh W 74-61 87%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 2.1 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 4.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.2 3.4 0.5 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.6 4.1 0.9 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.2 2.4 4.3 1.5 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 3.9 2.0 0.2 8.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 3.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 2.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 6.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.3 0.8 0.0 5.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.0 3.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.7 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.3 3.8 6.9 9.0 10.0 11.6 12.4 11.3 9.6 8.2 5.9 3.6 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 91.9% 0.3    0.3 0.1
17-3 68.9% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 37.3% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1
15-5 10.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.1% 99.1% 10.4% 88.7% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.9%
16-4 2.2% 96.8% 11.1% 85.7% 7.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 96.4%
15-5 3.6% 87.0% 12.7% 74.2% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 85.1%
14-6 5.9% 64.3% 7.0% 57.3% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.1 2.1 61.6%
13-7 8.2% 42.3% 4.9% 37.4% 9.8 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.7 39.4%
12-8 9.6% 24.2% 2.6% 21.6% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 7.2 22.2%
11-9 11.3% 8.7% 1.1% 7.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 10.3 7.7%
10-10 12.4% 3.2% 0.9% 2.3% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 12.0 2.4%
9-11 11.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.5 0.3%
8-12 10.0% 0.7% 0.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9
7-13 9.0% 9.0
6-14 6.9% 6.9
5-15 3.8% 3.8
4-16 2.3% 2.3
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.8% 2.3% 15.5% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 82.2 15.9%