Minnesota
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#82
Expected Predictive Rating+12.2#44
Pace73.1#87
Improvement+0.0#181

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#135
First Shot+4.8#43
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#347
Layup/Dunks-1.0#210
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#30
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#134
Freethrows+1.2#97
Improvement-0.9#278

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#48
First Shot+4.7#48
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#140
Layups/Dunks-4.0#295
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.6#6
Freethrows+1.5#102
Improvement+0.9#77
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.3% 1.7% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 3.7% 4.8% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.9% 23.8% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.4% 23.2% 10.7%
Average Seed 8.6 8.6 9.0
.500 or above 54.7% 62.7% 36.5%
.500 or above in Conference 18.3% 21.0% 12.2%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 22.1% 18.7% 29.8%
First Four3.6% 4.2% 2.2%
First Round18.0% 21.6% 9.6%
Second Round8.2% 9.9% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 3.0% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Away) - 69.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 23 - 36 - 14
Quad 34 - 110 - 15
Quad 46 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 191   UMKC W 71-56 84%     1 - 0 +10.7 +1.5 +10.4
  Nov 12, 2021 123   Western Kentucky W 73-69 63%     2 - 0 +6.8 +1.9 +5.0
  Nov 14, 2021 146   Princeton W 87-80 2OT 68%     3 - 0 +8.6 -4.7 +11.9
  Nov 19, 2021 274   Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-49 92%     4 - 0 +19.8 -4.8 +23.3
  Nov 24, 2021 261   Jacksonville W 55-44 91%     5 - 0 +2.6 -13.8 +17.6
  Nov 30, 2021 213   @ Pittsburgh W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 05, 2021 37   @ Mississippi St. L 63-71 24%    
  Dec 08, 2021 21   Michigan St. L 67-72 33%    
  Dec 11, 2021 16   @ Michigan L 63-74 14%    
  Dec 14, 2021 317   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79-61 95%    
  Dec 22, 2021 300   Green Bay W 78-61 94%    
  Dec 29, 2021 326   Alcorn St. W 79-60 96%    
  Jan 02, 2022 33   Illinois L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 09, 2022 30   @ Indiana L 64-73 22%    
  Jan 12, 2022 21   @ Michigan St. L 64-75 17%    
  Jan 16, 2022 19   Iowa L 76-81 33%    
  Jan 19, 2022 68   @ Penn St. L 62-66 37%    
  Jan 22, 2022 98   Rutgers W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 27, 2022 29   Ohio St. L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 30, 2022 31   @ Wisconsin L 60-69 22%    
  Feb 02, 2022 2   Purdue L 68-78 19%    
  Feb 06, 2022 19   @ Iowa L 73-84 17%    
  Feb 09, 2022 109   @ Nebraska L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 12, 2022 68   Penn St. W 65-63 57%    
  Feb 15, 2022 29   @ Ohio St. L 67-76 21%    
  Feb 19, 2022 42   Northwestern L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 23, 2022 31   Wisconsin L 63-66 41%    
  Feb 27, 2022 30   Indiana L 67-70 41%    
  Mar 02, 2022 53   @ Maryland L 66-71 32%    
  Mar 06, 2022 42   @ Northwestern L 68-75 29%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 7 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.0 0.1 3.2 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.8 0.7 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 3.2 1.5 0.2 6.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.1 2.8 0.4 8.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 4.3 3.6 0.7 0.1 10.4 10th
11th 0.2 1.6 4.6 4.7 1.5 0.1 12.6 11th
12th 0.3 2.0 4.6 4.9 2.0 0.1 0.0 13.8 12th
13th 0.2 0.8 2.7 5.1 4.8 1.8 0.2 15.7 13th
14th 0.4 1.8 3.5 4.3 2.7 1.1 0.2 13.9 14th
Total 0.4 2.0 4.3 7.3 9.9 12.1 13.1 12.6 11.0 8.9 7.3 4.6 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 57.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 33.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 8.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1
13-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.3% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.4% 100.0% 2.4% 97.6% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.8% 98.8% 8.3% 90.5% 5.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.7%
13-7 1.7% 98.8% 6.4% 92.4% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
12-8 3.1% 97.7% 3.9% 93.8% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 97.6%
11-9 4.6% 88.7% 0.6% 88.1% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.5 88.7%
10-10 7.3% 69.2% 1.0% 68.3% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.4 2.2 68.9%
9-11 8.9% 33.4% 0.7% 32.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 5.9 33.0%
8-12 11.0% 11.3% 0.4% 10.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.8 10.9%
7-13 12.6% 1.7% 0.3% 1.4% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.4 1.4%
6-14 13.1% 0.2% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 13.1
5-15 12.1% 12.1
4-16 9.9% 9.9
3-17 7.3% 7.3
2-18 4.3% 4.3
1-19 2.0% 2.0
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 19.9% 0.6% 19.3% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 1.7 0.1 0.0 80.1 19.4%