Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#109
Expected Predictive Rating+17.3#17
Pace63.8#307
Improvement+0.4#9

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#139
First Shot-0.7#193
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#71
Layup/Dunks+2.0#104
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#235
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#292
Freethrows+2.1#64
Improvement+0.3#12

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#91
First Shot+1.4#131
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#77
Layups/Dunks+2.7#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#209
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#152
Freethrows-2.2#306
Improvement+0.1#78
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.5% 18.7% 10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.5% 5.6% 1.3%
Average Seed 11.7 11.6 12.5
.500 or above 98.6% 99.3% 96.5%
.500 or above in Conference 87.3% 89.4% 80.9%
Conference Champion 16.3% 18.3% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Four2.4% 2.9% 0.9%
First Round15.2% 17.0% 9.6%
Second Round3.4% 4.0% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.1% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Away) - 75.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 3
Quad 36 - 39 - 6
Quad 412 - 120 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 88   @ Vanderbilt W 60-48 31%     1 - 0 +21.1 -8.0 +29.2
  Nov 18, 2022 126   @ Liberty W 76-72 43%     2 - 0 +9.9 +11.5 -1.4
  Nov 22, 2022 209   Winthrop W 77-52 73%     3 - 0 +22.7 +3.8 +20.2
  Nov 23, 2022 198   Purdue Fort Wayne W 70-58 71%     4 - 0 +10.4 +4.8 +6.8
  Nov 29, 2022 224   Montana W 64-54 84%     5 - 0 +3.6 +4.4 +1.7
  Dec 04, 2022 282   @ Northwestern St. W 69-62 75%    
  Dec 10, 2022 330   Lamar W 75-57 96%    
  Dec 13, 2022 330   @ Lamar W 72-60 87%    
  Dec 18, 2022 354   McNeese St. W 79-57 98%    
  Dec 22, 2022 78   @ UNLV L 62-68 29%    
  Dec 29, 2022 156   Troy W 70-64 71%    
  Dec 31, 2022 204   Appalachian St. W 68-59 79%    
  Jan 05, 2023 122   @ Louisiana L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 07, 2023 316   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-62 82%    
  Jan 12, 2023 94   @ Marshall L 70-74 35%    
  Jan 14, 2023 272   @ Arkansas St. W 65-58 72%    
  Jan 19, 2023 148   South Alabama W 68-62 70%    
  Jan 21, 2023 60   James Madison L 70-71 44%    
  Jan 26, 2023 272   Arkansas St. W 68-55 87%    
  Jan 28, 2023 167   Texas St. W 66-59 74%    
  Feb 02, 2023 156   @ Troy W 67-66 50%    
  Feb 04, 2023 205   @ Georgia St. W 65-62 60%    
  Feb 09, 2023 122   Louisiana W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 11, 2023 316   Louisiana Monroe W 75-59 93%    
  Feb 16, 2023 148   @ South Alabama L 64-65 49%    
  Feb 18, 2023 292   Georgia Southern W 71-57 89%    
  Feb 22, 2023 147   @ Old Dominion L 63-64 49%    
  Feb 24, 2023 167   @ Texas St. W 63-62 55%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 3.7 5.3 3.7 1.7 0.4 16.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 5.8 6.0 2.6 0.4 0.0 17.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.8 5.2 1.6 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.7 5.0 1.4 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.9 1.2 0.1 10.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 4.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.4 2.1 0.2 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.5 6.1 8.5 11.8 13.3 14.2 13.7 11.4 8.1 4.2 1.8 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.5% 1.7    1.6 0.1
16-2 89.7% 3.7    2.9 0.8 0.0
15-3 65.6% 5.3    3.0 2.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 32.7% 3.7    1.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.0% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.3% 16.3 9.3 5.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 84.0% 42.5% 41.6% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 72.2%
17-1 1.8% 78.0% 35.3% 42.7% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.4 66.0%
16-2 4.2% 58.3% 31.1% 27.2% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 39.4%
15-3 8.1% 36.9% 23.4% 13.5% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.1 17.6%
14-4 11.4% 23.5% 18.5% 5.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 8.7 6.2%
13-5 13.7% 17.2% 15.8% 1.3% 12.3 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.7 0.1 11.4 1.6%
12-6 14.2% 11.3% 11.1% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 12.6 0.3%
11-7 13.3% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 12.1 0.0%
10-8 11.8% 6.1% 6.1% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 11.1
9-9 8.5% 4.4% 4.4% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.1
8-10 6.1% 4.3% 4.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.8
7-11 3.5% 2.7% 2.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.4
6-12 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 16.5% 12.6% 3.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.2 3.5 5.4 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 83.5 4.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 98.1% 5.1 3.8 2.9 29.8 32.7 13.5 6.7 6.7 1.9