South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#144
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#197
Pace67.0#229
Improvement-0.2#334

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#177
First Shot-3.2#270
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#31
Layup/Dunks+3.1#83
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#289
Freethrows-2.8#323
Improvement+0.0#167

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#126
First Shot+2.0#121
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#209
Layups/Dunks-2.0#259
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#330
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#57
Freethrows+2.8#52
Improvement-0.3#349
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 9.1% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.5 14.4
.500 or above 59.6% 80.6% 56.4%
.500 or above in Conference 76.0% 84.9% 74.6%
Conference Champion 7.8% 13.1% 7.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four0.9% 0.5% 0.9%
First Round5.6% 8.9% 5.1%
Second Round0.6% 1.2% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 13.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 31 - 8
Quad 34 - 45 - 12
Quad 411 - 215 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 55   @ New Mexico L 74-80 16%     0 - 1 +6.2 +2.8 +3.7
  Nov 15, 2022 12   Alabama L 55-65 13%     0 - 2 +3.6 -12.9 +17.0
  Nov 18, 2022 40   @ Oklahoma L 60-64 13%     0 - 3 +9.6 +0.5 +8.8
  Nov 25, 2022 313   Evansville W 78-67 84%     1 - 3 +2.1 +8.7 -6.1
  Nov 26, 2022 115   Towson L 60-62 42%     1 - 4 +1.7 -9.1 +10.7
  Nov 27, 2022 249   Robert Morris W 84-70 72%     2 - 4 +9.7 +14.2 -3.6
  Nov 30, 2022 65   @ Florida Atlantic L 59-84 18%     2 - 5 -13.8 -6.8 -7.5
  Dec 04, 2022 41   @ UAB L 71-83 13%    
  Dec 12, 2022 343   @ Alabama A&M W 78-67 85%    
  Dec 21, 2022 219   Jacksonville St. W 71-63 77%    
  Dec 29, 2022 294   @ Georgia Southern W 69-63 70%    
  Dec 31, 2022 204   @ Georgia St. W 65-64 52%    
  Jan 05, 2023 270   Arkansas St. W 66-56 81%    
  Jan 07, 2023 166   Texas St. W 66-62 66%    
  Jan 12, 2023 61   James Madison L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 14, 2023 121   Louisiana W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 19, 2023 111   @ Southern Miss L 62-67 31%    
  Jan 21, 2023 236   @ Coastal Carolina W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 26, 2023 145   Old Dominion W 66-63 61%    
  Jan 28, 2023 154   Troy W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 02, 2023 270   @ Arkansas St. W 63-59 63%    
  Feb 04, 2023 316   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 09, 2023 154   @ Troy L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 11, 2023 203   Appalachian St. W 68-62 71%    
  Feb 13, 2023 361   Hartford W 78-56 98%    
  Feb 16, 2023 111   Southern Miss W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 18, 2023 316   Louisiana Monroe W 76-62 89%    
  Feb 22, 2023 166   @ Texas St. L 63-65 45%    
  Feb 24, 2023 121   @ Louisiana L 66-71 34%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.2 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 7.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 4.1 3.5 1.4 0.2 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 4.8 4.0 1.1 0.1 11.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 5.2 4.5 1.1 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.3 5.6 1.4 0.1 12.1 5th
6th 0.2 3.2 5.4 1.6 0.1 10.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 4.8 2.5 0.1 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.7 2.7 0.4 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 0.7 0.1 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.3 4.3 6.3 9.5 12.1 13.8 14.4 12.3 10.1 6.9 4.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.4 0.0
16-2 89.4% 1.5    1.1 0.4 0.0
15-3 61.7% 2.5    1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 32.0% 2.2    0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.9% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 3.8 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 65.0% 50.0% 15.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.0%
17-1 0.5% 33.7% 30.6% 3.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.4%
16-2 1.6% 17.9% 17.0% 0.9% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4 1.1%
15-3 4.0% 13.2% 13.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.5
14-4 6.9% 12.0% 12.0% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 6.1
13-5 10.1% 8.6% 8.6% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.3
12-6 12.3% 7.7% 7.7% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 11.4
11-7 14.4% 5.6% 5.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 13.6
10-8 13.8% 4.2% 4.2% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 13.3
9-9 12.1% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.1 0.4 11.6
8-10 9.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.3
7-11 6.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 6.2
6-12 4.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 4.3
5-13 2.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.3 94.1 0.0%