Troy
Sun Belt
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#156
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#138
Pace68.1#203
Improvement+0.1#63

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#149
First Shot+0.6#145
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#163
Layup/Dunks+0.0#171
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#203
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#115
Freethrows-1.0#238
Improvement+0.2#51

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#182
First Shot+0.2#170
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#204
Layups/Dunks+3.9#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#128
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#185
Freethrows-4.6#353
Improvement+0.0#170
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 6.5% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.4 14.2
.500 or above 71.5% 82.1% 58.4%
.500 or above in Conference 64.7% 71.0% 56.8%
Conference Champion 5.2% 7.0% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.4% 3.1%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round5.0% 6.3% 3.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Away) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 35 - 56 - 9
Quad 49 - 315 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2022 188   @ Florida St. W 79-72 45%     1 - 0 +9.0 +3.9 +4.8
  Nov 17, 2022 341   Merrimack W 73-54 89%     2 - 0 +6.7 +1.7 +6.2
  Nov 18, 2022 290   St. Thomas L 76-78 77%     2 - 1 -8.8 -1.3 -7.5
  Nov 19, 2022 224   @ Montana W 73-62 55%     3 - 1 +10.6 +4.6 +6.7
  Nov 28, 2022 15   @ Arkansas L 61-74 5%     3 - 2 +6.5 +2.4 +3.6
  Dec 03, 2022 227   @ SIU Edwardsville W 72-71 55%    
  Dec 05, 2022 25   @ San Diego St. L 62-78 7%    
  Dec 10, 2022 314   Tennessee Tech W 79-66 88%    
  Dec 17, 2022 273   @ SE Louisiana W 76-73 62%    
  Dec 21, 2022 200   Mercer W 73-67 70%    
  Dec 29, 2022 109   @ Southern Miss L 64-70 29%    
  Dec 31, 2022 167   @ Texas St. L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 05, 2023 147   Old Dominion W 68-66 59%    
  Jan 07, 2023 272   Arkansas St. W 70-61 80%    
  Jan 12, 2023 205   @ Georgia St. L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 14, 2023 204   @ Appalachian St. L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 19, 2023 60   James Madison L 72-77 34%    
  Jan 21, 2023 316   Louisiana Monroe W 77-64 88%    
  Jan 26, 2023 122   @ Louisiana L 68-74 31%    
  Jan 28, 2023 148   @ South Alabama L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 02, 2023 109   Southern Miss L 66-67 50%    
  Feb 04, 2023 167   Texas St. W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 09, 2023 148   South Alabama W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 11, 2023 122   Louisiana W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 16, 2023 272   @ Arkansas St. W 67-64 62%    
  Feb 18, 2023 94   @ Marshall L 72-79 25%    
  Feb 22, 2023 316   @ Louisiana Monroe W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 24, 2023 240   Coastal Carolina W 73-65 75%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 5.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.0 2.9 0.6 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.3 3.9 0.7 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.2 4.5 0.9 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.3 1.6 0.1 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.4 2.5 0.2 10.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.5 3.2 0.4 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.6 0.7 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.4 1.0 0.0 7.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.6 1.0 0.1 5.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.2 6.5 9.1 11.7 13.2 13.7 12.0 10.1 7.3 4.5 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 98.7% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 90.1% 0.9    0.8 0.2 0.0
15-3 69.9% 1.8    1.0 0.7 0.1
14-4 33.4% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
13-5 8.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 41.5% 25.2% 16.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.8%
16-2 1.0% 28.7% 24.4% 4.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 5.6%
15-3 2.5% 18.1% 17.3% 0.8% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 1.0%
14-4 4.5% 12.1% 12.0% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.9 0.1%
13-5 7.3% 11.9% 11.9% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 6.4
12-6 10.1% 7.7% 7.7% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 9.3
11-7 12.0% 4.7% 4.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.4
10-8 13.7% 4.9% 4.9% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 13.1
9-9 13.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.8
8-10 11.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 11.5
7-11 9.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.0
6-12 6.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.4
5-13 4.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.2
4-14 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.3
3-15 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.2% 5.1% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.6 94.8 0.1%