Cincinnati
American Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#89
Expected Predictive Rating+1.7#149
Pace69.6#151
Improvement-0.2#215

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#57
First Shot-0.8#197
After Offensive Rebound+5.6#5
Layup/Dunks-2.3#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#97
Freethrows-2.5#321
Improvement+0.1#94

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#140
First Shot+0.3#166
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#124
Layups/Dunks-0.9#222
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#116
Freethrows+0.7#150
Improvement-0.3#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 8.0% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.3% 4.4% 1.2%
Average Seed 11.4 11.2 12.4
.500 or above 80.2% 86.4% 67.1%
.500 or above in Conference 63.0% 66.9% 55.0%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.4% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 2.4% 4.2%
First Four1.9% 2.3% 1.1%
First Round5.6% 6.8% 3.1%
Second Round1.7% 2.1% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bryant (Home) - 67.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 6
Quad 22 - 33 - 9
Quad 35 - 38 - 12
Quad 49 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 202   Cleveland St. W 69-58 84%     1 - 0 +6.3 +3.1 +4.5
  Nov 13, 2022 247   Eastern Kentucky W 87-69 89%     2 - 0 +10.7 +4.2 +5.0
  Nov 16, 2022 237   @ Northern Kentucky L 51-64 75%     2 - 1 -13.9 -16.4 +1.1
  Nov 21, 2022 6   Arizona L 93-101 13%     2 - 2 +10.4 +16.3 -5.2
  Nov 22, 2022 23   Ohio St. L 53-81 22%     2 - 3 -13.9 -9.2 -9.2
  Nov 23, 2022 210   Louisville W 81-62 79%     3 - 3 +16.6 +10.6 +6.2
  Nov 30, 2022 317   NJIT W 86-60 95%     4 - 3 +13.6 +12.1 +2.7
  Dec 04, 2022 111   Bryant W 85-80 68%    
  Dec 10, 2022 27   Xavier L 76-80 36%    
  Dec 14, 2022 286   Miami (OH) W 84-69 92%    
  Dec 17, 2022 220   La Salle W 75-63 87%    
  Dec 21, 2022 197   Detroit Mercy W 80-69 83%    
  Dec 29, 2022 107   Tulane W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 01, 2023 96   @ Temple L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 05, 2023 95   @ Wichita St. L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 09, 2023 1   Houston L 59-71 13%    
  Jan 11, 2023 207   East Carolina W 79-68 84%    
  Jan 14, 2023 155   @ SMU W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 18, 2023 187   @ South Florida W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 22, 2023 30   Memphis L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 28, 2023 1   @ Houston L 56-74 5%    
  Feb 01, 2023 169   Tulsa W 81-72 79%    
  Feb 04, 2023 75   Central Florida W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 07, 2023 107   @ Tulane L 74-75 45%    
  Feb 11, 2023 187   South Florida W 72-62 81%    
  Feb 15, 2023 207   @ East Carolina W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 19, 2023 75   @ Central Florida L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 22, 2023 96   Temple W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 26, 2023 30   @ Memphis L 68-78 19%    
  Mar 05, 2023 155   SMU W 75-67 77%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.6 3.3 2.5 0.9 0.1 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.2 5.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.0 7.2 4.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 16.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.6 6.9 4.5 0.9 0.0 15.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 6.0 4.2 0.6 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.5 3.8 0.6 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.3 0.6 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.8 6.5 10.3 13.4 15.1 14.9 12.8 9.5 5.9 3.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 73.1% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 26.6% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 8.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 95.1% 26.8% 68.3% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.3%
16-2 0.5% 85.9% 16.7% 69.2% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 83.1%
15-3 1.2% 63.9% 8.9% 55.0% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 60.4%
14-4 3.2% 38.4% 8.2% 30.1% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 32.8%
13-5 5.9% 19.4% 6.8% 12.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.8 13.5%
12-6 9.5% 9.5% 5.3% 4.1% 11.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.6 4.4%
11-7 12.8% 4.5% 3.7% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.2 0.9%
10-8 14.9% 4.0% 3.9% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 14.3 0.1%
9-9 15.1% 2.1% 2.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.8
8-10 13.4% 1.7% 1.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.2
7-11 10.3% 2.1% 2.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.0
6-12 6.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.4
5-13 3.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.8
4-14 1.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-15 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.6% 3.3% 3.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 93.4 3.3%