Providence
Big East
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.5#93
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#157
Pace65.1#273
Improvement-0.5#338

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#74
First Shot+2.5#99
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#89
Layup/Dunks+5.3#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#260
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#286
Freethrows+2.2#58
Improvement-0.2#276

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#132
First Shot+2.8#86
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#266
Layups/Dunks+0.0#189
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#164
Freethrows+2.7#42
Improvement-0.3#308
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 5.2% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.4% 3.4% 0.9%
Average Seed 11.4 11.1 12.6
.500 or above 34.4% 43.3% 20.4%
.500 or above in Conference 17.0% 20.0% 12.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.4% 11.2% 16.8%
First Four1.3% 1.6% 0.8%
First Round3.4% 4.5% 1.7%
Second Round1.1% 1.4% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Away) - 60.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 11
Quad 22 - 44 - 15
Quad 33 - 27 - 16
Quad 48 - 014 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 225   Rider W 66-65 87%     1 - 0 -5.5 -6.0 +0.6
  Nov 12, 2022 257   Northeastern W 89-65 89%     2 - 0 +16.3 +18.2 -1.2
  Nov 15, 2022 345   Stonehill W 100-76 97%     3 - 0 +8.1 +13.3 -5.9
  Nov 19, 2022 36   Miami (FL) L 64-74 30%     3 - 1 +0.8 -4.1 +4.6
  Nov 20, 2022 46   Saint Louis L 73-76 33%     3 - 2 +7.0 +4.5 +2.5
  Nov 23, 2022 341   Merrimack W 71-57 96%     4 - 2 -1.3 -0.4 +0.3
  Nov 26, 2022 348   Columbia W 78-64 97%     5 - 2 -2.2 -4.6 +2.2
  Nov 30, 2022 53   @ TCU L 62-75 25%     5 - 3 -0.6 -0.9 +0.0
  Dec 03, 2022 180   @ Rhode Island W 67-64 61%    
  Dec 07, 2022 265   Manhattan W 76-62 90%    
  Dec 10, 2022 326   Albany W 78-59 96%    
  Dec 17, 2022 52   @ Seton Hall L 64-71 26%    
  Dec 20, 2022 21   Marquette L 70-76 29%    
  Dec 29, 2022 55   @ Butler L 64-71 26%    
  Jan 01, 2023 117   @ DePaul L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 04, 2023 2   Connecticut L 64-76 13%    
  Jan 07, 2023 42   St. John's L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 14, 2023 8   @ Creighton L 64-79 9%    
  Jan 18, 2023 21   @ Marquette L 67-79 14%    
  Jan 21, 2023 117   DePaul W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 25, 2023 55   Butler L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 29, 2023 80   @ Villanova L 65-69 35%    
  Feb 01, 2023 27   @ Xavier L 70-81 17%    
  Feb 08, 2023 178   Georgetown W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 11, 2023 42   @ St. John's L 71-79 24%    
  Feb 14, 2023 8   Creighton L 67-76 21%    
  Feb 18, 2023 80   Villanova W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 22, 2023 2   @ Connecticut L 61-79 5%    
  Feb 26, 2023 178   @ Georgetown W 74-71 60%    
  Mar 01, 2023 27   Xavier L 73-78 34%    
  Mar 04, 2023 52   Seton Hall L 67-68 46%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 4.1 3.0 0.7 0.1 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.7 4.0 0.9 0.1 14.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 4.3 7.2 4.7 1.0 0.1 18.3 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 5.7 7.4 4.0 0.7 0.0 19.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.4 5.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 16.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 7.8 11th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.4 5.4 9.0 12.6 14.5 14.8 13.1 10.2 7.4 4.7 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 48.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 17.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 95.3% 4.7% 90.7% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.1%
15-5 0.2% 94.2% 3.3% 90.9% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.0%
14-6 0.6% 77.8% 6.5% 71.3% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 76.2%
13-7 1.4% 52.8% 5.0% 47.8% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 50.3%
12-8 2.6% 26.4% 4.5% 22.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 23.0%
11-9 4.7% 9.1% 2.8% 6.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.3 6.5%
10-10 7.4% 3.3% 2.6% 0.7% 12.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.1 0.7%
9-11 10.2% 2.3% 2.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.0
8-12 13.1% 1.8% 1.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.8
7-13 14.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 14.6
6-14 14.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 14.3
5-15 12.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.5
4-16 9.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.9
3-17 5.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.4
2-18 2.4% 2.4
1-19 0.8% 0.8
0-20 0.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
Total 100% 3.9% 1.6% 2.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 96.1 2.4%