Villanova
Big East
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#80
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#235
Pace58.8#357
Improvement-0.4#316

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#36
First Shot+6.0#38
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#161
Layup/Dunks-1.5#226
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#150
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#87
Freethrows+4.1#17
Improvement+0.0#165

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#170
First Shot-1.0#210
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#91
Layups/Dunks+1.2#141
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#127
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#311
Freethrows+1.3#112
Improvement-0.4#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 7.7% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.2% 5.3% 1.4%
Average Seed 11.3 10.7 12.6
.500 or above 17.0% 25.5% 9.8%
.500 or above in Conference 26.8% 32.4% 22.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 8.8% 6.6% 10.7%
First Four1.7% 2.1% 1.4%
First Round4.8% 7.0% 2.8%
Second Round1.6% 2.6% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Home) - 46.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 11
Quad 23 - 55 - 16
Quad 34 - 39 - 18
Quad 43 - 012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 220   La Salle W 81-68 88%     1 - 0 +6.8 +18.6 -10.1
  Nov 11, 2022 96   @ Temple L 64-68 44%     1 - 1 +4.2 +0.0 +3.8
  Nov 14, 2022 358   Delaware St. W 60-50 98%     2 - 1 -9.4 -9.6 +2.4
  Nov 18, 2022 37   @ Michigan St. L 71-73 25%     2 - 2 +11.8 +11.5 +0.0
  Nov 24, 2022 33   Iowa St. L 79-81 OT 33%     2 - 3 +9.3 +7.9 +1.5
  Nov 25, 2022 110   Portland L 71-83 60%     2 - 4 -7.9 -2.2 -5.9
  Nov 27, 2022 50   Oregon L 67-74 39%     2 - 5 +2.6 +6.7 -5.1
  Dec 03, 2022 38   Oklahoma L 63-64 46%    
  Dec 07, 2022 159   Penn W 74-65 81%    
  Dec 10, 2022 151   Boston College W 66-61 69%    
  Dec 17, 2022 193   @ Saint Joseph's W 71-66 68%    
  Dec 21, 2022 42   St. John's L 72-73 48%    
  Dec 28, 2022 2   @ Connecticut L 59-76 6%    
  Dec 31, 2022 21   Marquette L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 04, 2023 178   @ Georgetown W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 07, 2023 27   Xavier L 71-74 38%    
  Jan 10, 2023 117   @ DePaul L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 13, 2023 55   @ Butler L 63-69 30%    
  Jan 16, 2023 178   Georgetown W 76-66 82%    
  Jan 20, 2023 42   @ St. John's L 69-76 28%    
  Jan 29, 2023 93   Providence W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 01, 2023 21   @ Marquette L 65-76 17%    
  Feb 04, 2023 8   @ Creighton L 62-76 11%    
  Feb 08, 2023 117   DePaul W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 11, 2023 52   Seton Hall W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 14, 2023 55   Butler W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 18, 2023 93   @ Providence L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 21, 2023 27   @ Xavier L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 25, 2023 8   Creighton L 65-73 25%    
  Feb 28, 2023 52   @ Seton Hall L 62-68 31%    
  Mar 04, 2023 2   Connecticut L 62-73 15%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 8 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.1 5.1 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.4 4.7 1.3 0.1 15.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.0 7.1 4.7 1.0 0.1 17.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 4.2 6.0 3.3 0.7 0.1 15.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.7 4.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 4.9 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.3 6.2 9.5 12.3 14.0 14.0 12.2 9.9 7.5 4.7 2.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 85.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 53.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
15-5 18.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.2% 97.8% 5.4% 92.4% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.7%
15-5 0.6% 90.7% 8.4% 82.3% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 89.8%
14-6 1.2% 68.8% 6.4% 62.5% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 66.7%
13-7 2.6% 40.7% 4.7% 36.0% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 37.8%
12-8 4.7% 16.5% 5.7% 10.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 11.5%
11-9 7.5% 5.4% 3.5% 1.9% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.1 1.9%
10-10 9.9% 2.7% 2.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.6
9-11 12.2% 2.4% 2.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 11.9
8-12 14.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 13.7
7-13 14.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.8
6-14 12.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 12.1
5-15 9.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.4
4-16 6.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.1
3-17 3.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.3
2-18 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.3% 2.2% 3.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 94.7 3.2%