TCU
Big 12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.4#53
Expected Predictive Rating+9.9#61
Pace70.9#121
Improvement+0.2#56

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#103
First Shot+0.9#138
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#95
Layup/Dunks+6.5#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#208
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#353
Freethrows+2.2#56
Improvement-0.1#195

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#37
First Shot+5.8#41
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#106
Layups/Dunks+0.8#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#25
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#131
Freethrows+1.0#123
Improvement+0.2#32
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.1% 2.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 8.3% 8.5% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.3% 34.8% 15.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.8% 32.3% 13.5%
Average Seed 8.1 8.1 9.2
.500 or above 69.9% 70.8% 39.0%
.500 or above in Conference 24.6% 24.9% 12.9%
Conference Champion 1.6% 1.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 28.0% 27.6% 41.5%
First Four4.1% 4.2% 3.0%
First Round32.3% 32.8% 13.6%
Second Round16.7% 17.0% 6.8%
Sweet Sixteen5.2% 5.3% 1.7%
Elite Eight1.8% 1.9% 0.9%
Final Four0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 97.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 10
Quad 23 - 28 - 12
Quad 32 - 010 - 13
Quad 47 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 339   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 73-72 98%     1 - 0 -14.1 -9.6 -4.5
  Nov 11, 2022 330   Lamar W 77-66 98%     2 - 0 -3.2 -5.5 +2.0
  Nov 14, 2022 282   Northwestern St. L 63-64 95%     2 - 1 -10.1 -12.4 +2.2
  Nov 17, 2022 316   Louisiana Monroe W 95-60 97%     3 - 1 +22.8 +7.5 +12.0
  Nov 25, 2022 231   California W 59-48 88%     4 - 1 +7.3 -4.7 +13.7
  Nov 26, 2022 24   Iowa W 79-66 33%     5 - 1 +27.0 +7.0 +19.7
  Nov 30, 2022 93   Providence W 75-62 75%     6 - 1 +15.5 +3.9 +11.9
  Dec 06, 2022 308   Jackson St. W 81-60 97%    
  Dec 10, 2022 155   SMU W 71-63 79%    
  Dec 18, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 84-53 99.8%   
  Dec 21, 2022 70   Utah W 68-67 56%    
  Dec 28, 2022 319   Central Arkansas W 86-64 98%    
  Dec 31, 2022 26   Texas Tech L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 04, 2023 19   @ Baylor L 72-80 22%    
  Jan 07, 2023 33   Iowa St. W 65-64 54%    
  Jan 11, 2023 4   @ Texas L 61-74 12%    
  Jan 14, 2023 47   Kansas St. W 69-67 59%    
  Jan 18, 2023 16   @ West Virginia L 64-74 18%    
  Jan 21, 2023 20   @ Kansas L 65-73 22%    
  Jan 24, 2023 38   Oklahoma W 65-63 57%    
  Jan 28, 2023 28   @ Mississippi St. L 58-65 27%    
  Jan 31, 2023 16   West Virginia L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 04, 2023 41   @ Oklahoma St. L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 07, 2023 47   @ Kansas St. L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 11, 2023 19   Baylor L 75-77 41%    
  Feb 15, 2023 33   @ Iowa St. L 62-67 33%    
  Feb 18, 2023 41   Oklahoma St. W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 20, 2023 20   Kansas L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 25, 2023 26   @ Texas Tech L 62-69 28%    
  Mar 01, 2023 4   Texas L 64-71 27%    
  Mar 04, 2023 38   @ Oklahoma L 62-66 35%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.2 1.0 0.1 7.0 4th
5th 0.4 2.9 4.5 1.4 0.1 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.5 2.0 0.1 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.3 2.9 0.3 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.5 3.7 0.4 0.0 14.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.3 6.6 3.8 0.5 0.0 16.8 9th
10th 0.4 1.4 3.4 5.5 5.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 18.9 10th
Total 0.4 1.4 3.6 6.8 10.1 13.1 14.2 13.8 12.1 9.5 6.8 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 90.4% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 71.0% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 40.8% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 17.0% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 1.8 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.2% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 2.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.5% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.2% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 4.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 2.3% 99.8% 10.8% 89.0% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 3.9% 99.3% 5.7% 93.7% 6.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
10-8 6.8% 96.3% 7.1% 89.3% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 96.1%
9-9 9.5% 86.3% 4.8% 81.5% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.6 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.3 85.6%
8-10 12.1% 56.5% 4.6% 51.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.2 54.4%
7-11 13.8% 22.3% 3.6% 18.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.8 19.3%
6-12 14.2% 5.9% 2.5% 3.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.4 3.5%
5-13 13.1% 2.1% 1.9% 0.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.8 0.1%
4-14 10.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.0
3-15 6.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.7
2-16 3.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
1-17 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 34.3% 3.6% 30.7% 8.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.9 5.2 6.4 4.6 4.0 3.7 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 65.7 31.8%