Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#37
Expected Predictive Rating+16.9#20
Pace69.1#168
Improvement+0.2#53

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#19
First Shot+6.0#41
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#75
Layup/Dunks+3.6#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#133
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#144
Freethrows+0.5#145
Improvement+0.1#74

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#91
First Shot+3.6#69
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#237
Layups/Dunks+2.2#107
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#271
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#175
Freethrows+2.1#76
Improvement+0.1#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 4.7% 5.4% 1.3%
Top 6 Seed 15.3% 17.2% 5.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.8% 66.0% 46.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 59.8% 63.1% 43.3%
Average Seed 8.2 8.1 9.1
.500 or above 98.8% 99.3% 96.1%
.500 or above in Conference 85.0% 88.2% 68.4%
Conference Champion 7.5% 8.5% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four9.0% 9.0% 9.4%
First Round58.2% 61.4% 41.6%
Second Round29.8% 31.8% 19.3%
Sweet Sixteen9.6% 10.5% 5.0%
Elite Eight3.5% 3.8% 1.9%
Final Four1.1% 1.2% 0.5%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 83.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 6
Quad 25 - 28 - 8
Quad 35 - 113 - 9
Quad 49 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 273   Lafayette W 67-54 95%     1 - 0 +4.5 -1.0 +7.0
  Nov 11, 2022 227   UNC Greensboro W 79-65 94%     2 - 0 +7.6 +9.9 -1.6
  Nov 15, 2022 360   Florida A&M W 87-61 99%     3 - 0 +6.0 +6.2 -0.5
  Nov 19, 2022 92   Providence W 74-64 69%     4 - 0 +15.5 +4.9 +10.9
  Nov 20, 2022 11   Maryland L 70-88 27%     4 - 1 -0.9 +6.2 -7.5
  Nov 23, 2022 339   St. Francis Brooklyn W 79-56 98%     5 - 1 +7.8 -0.6 +8.7
  Nov 27, 2022 75   @ Central Florida W 66-64 51%     6 - 1 +12.4 +10.5 +2.2
  Nov 30, 2022 39   Rutgers W 68-61 62%     7 - 1 +14.6 +8.5 +6.7
  Dec 04, 2022 213   @ Louisville W 76-65 84%    
  Dec 07, 2022 157   Cornell W 86-73 89%    
  Dec 10, 2022 30   North Carolina St. W 79-78 54%    
  Dec 17, 2022 322   St. Francis (PA) W 85-61 99%    
  Dec 20, 2022 13   Virginia L 65-68 40%    
  Dec 28, 2022 199   Vermont W 78-63 92%    
  Dec 30, 2022 78   @ Notre Dame W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 04, 2023 108   @ Georgia Tech W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 11, 2023 146   Boston College W 74-62 87%    
  Jan 14, 2023 30   @ North Carolina St. L 76-81 32%    
  Jan 16, 2023 96   Syracuse W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 21, 2023 19   @ Duke L 68-76 25%    
  Jan 24, 2023 187   @ Florida St. W 79-70 78%    
  Jan 28, 2023 105   @ Pittsburgh W 74-71 62%    
  Jan 31, 2023 58   Virginia Tech W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 04, 2023 76   @ Clemson W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 06, 2023 19   Duke L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 11, 2023 213   Louisville W 79-62 93%    
  Feb 13, 2023 23   @ North Carolina L 73-79 28%    
  Feb 18, 2023 70   Wake Forest W 80-74 69%    
  Feb 21, 2023 58   @ Virginia Tech L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 25, 2023 187   Florida St. W 82-67 90%    
  Mar 04, 2023 105   Pittsburgh W 77-68 79%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 7.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.5 3.3 1.0 0.1 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.8 3.6 0.8 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.0 3.8 0.6 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 5.9 3.8 0.6 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 5.2 3.8 0.8 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.9 0.8 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.4 1.1 0.1 7.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 2.6 1.1 0.1 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.1 6.7 10.1 12.9 13.9 14.1 12.7 9.7 6.3 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 89.8% 1.3    1.0 0.3 0.0
17-3 68.4% 2.3    1.3 0.8 0.1
16-4 36.3% 2.3    0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 10.7% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.5% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.5% 7.5 3.8 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 2.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.4% 100.0% 13.7% 86.3% 3.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.3% 99.8% 14.7% 85.2% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-4 6.3% 99.5% 12.5% 87.1% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-5 9.7% 98.6% 10.9% 87.6% 6.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 2.7 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.4%
14-6 12.7% 94.0% 10.0% 84.0% 8.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.3 3.2 3.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.8 93.3%
13-7 14.1% 82.9% 7.1% 75.8% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.5 3.2 1.7 0.1 2.4 81.6%
12-8 13.9% 67.9% 6.7% 61.2% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.4 2.9 0.5 4.5 65.6%
11-9 12.9% 44.3% 5.1% 39.1% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.9 0.7 0.0 7.2 41.3%
10-10 10.1% 23.2% 4.6% 18.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.0 7.8 19.5%
9-11 6.7% 6.0% 3.1% 2.8% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.3 2.9%
8-12 4.1% 3.5% 3.0% 0.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.5%
7-13 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
6-14 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
4-16 0.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 62.8% 7.4% 55.4% 8.2 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.3 6.3 7.2 8.2 9.9 10.3 9.3 2.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 37.2 59.8%