Connecticut
Big East
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.3#2
Expected Predictive Rating+22.6#3
Pace69.0#171
Improvement+0.0#148

Offense
Total Offense+10.9#7
First Shot+8.1#14
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#43
Layup/Dunks+4.1#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#38
Freethrows+2.4#54
Improvement+0.0#147

Defense
Total Defense+9.5#9
First Shot+7.9#22
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#82
Layups/Dunks+1.5#133
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#11
Freethrows-1.7#274
Improvement+0.0#202
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 10.1% 11.4% 5.1%
#1 Seed 39.0% 42.3% 25.2%
Top 2 Seed 67.4% 71.6% 50.2%
Top 4 Seed 91.7% 93.9% 82.7%
Top 6 Seed 98.3% 98.9% 95.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 99.9% 99.6%
Average Seed 2.3 2.1 2.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.8% 99.4%
Conference Champion 63.9% 65.9% 55.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Second Round94.5% 95.4% 90.7%
Sweet Sixteen71.3% 73.1% 63.9%
Elite Eight47.0% 48.7% 39.8%
Final Four28.7% 30.2% 22.4%
Championship Game17.0% 18.1% 12.3%
National Champion9.7% 10.5% 6.5%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 80.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 24 - 2
Quad 1b5 - 18 - 3
Quad 27 - 116 - 4
Quad 36 - 021 - 4
Quad 46 - 027 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 345   Stonehill W 85-54 99.7%    1 - 0 +15.1 -4.5 +17.5
  Nov 11, 2022 259   Boston University W 86-57 99%     2 - 0 +21.1 +11.0 +10.2
  Nov 15, 2022 190   Buffalo W 84-64 98%     3 - 0 +15.9 +2.0 +12.0
  Nov 18, 2022 138   UNC Wilmington W 86-50 96%     4 - 0 +35.2 +19.7 +17.9
  Nov 20, 2022 358   Delaware St. W 95-60 99.8%    5 - 0 +15.6 +6.8 +6.8
  Nov 24, 2022 42   Oregon W 83-59 83%     6 - 0 +34.4 +15.3 +19.5
  Nov 25, 2022 12   Alabama W 82-67 64%     7 - 0 +31.6 +14.2 +16.7
  Nov 27, 2022 33   Iowa St. W 71-53 80%     8 - 0 +29.3 +14.7 +16.5
  Dec 01, 2022 38   Oklahoma St. W 74-64 88%     9 - 0 +17.6 +10.0 +8.0
  Dec 07, 2022 66   @ Florida W 80-71 81%    
  Dec 10, 2022 351   LIU Brooklyn W 93-56 100.0%   
  Dec 17, 2022 54   @ Butler W 73-65 78%    
  Dec 20, 2022 178   Georgetown W 87-63 99%    
  Dec 28, 2022 79   Villanova W 77-60 94%    
  Dec 31, 2022 28   @ Xavier W 79-75 65%    
  Jan 04, 2023 92   @ Providence W 76-64 86%    
  Jan 07, 2023 10   Creighton W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 11, 2023 22   @ Marquette W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 15, 2023 43   St. John's W 83-70 88%    
  Jan 18, 2023 68   @ Seton Hall W 74-65 80%    
  Jan 22, 2023 54   Butler W 76-62 90%    
  Jan 25, 2023 28   Xavier W 82-72 82%    
  Jan 31, 2023 116   @ DePaul W 81-67 89%    
  Feb 04, 2023 178   @ Georgetown W 84-66 95%    
  Feb 07, 2023 22   Marquette W 79-70 79%    
  Feb 11, 2023 10   @ Creighton W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 18, 2023 68   Seton Hall W 77-62 91%    
  Feb 22, 2023 92   Providence W 79-61 95%    
  Feb 25, 2023 43   @ St. John's W 80-73 74%    
  Mar 01, 2023 116   DePaul W 84-64 96%    
  Mar 04, 2023 79   @ Villanova W 74-63 83%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.7 9.8 16.0 17.5 12.2 4.0 63.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.8 6.8 6.8 3.2 0.6 22.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.0 1.9 0.4 0.1 8.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 3.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.4 4.9 7.9 12.4 17.0 19.3 18.1 12.2 4.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 4.0    4.0
19-1 100.0% 12.2    12.1 0.2
18-2 96.8% 17.5    15.7 1.8
17-3 83.1% 16.0    12.0 3.9 0.2
16-4 57.3% 9.8    5.4 3.8 0.6 0.0
15-5 29.6% 3.7    1.3 1.7 0.6 0.1
14-6 7.6% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 63.9% 63.9 50.5 11.7 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 4.0% 100.0% 55.7% 44.3% 1.1 3.5 0.5 0.0 100.0%
19-1 12.2% 100.0% 47.5% 52.5% 1.2 9.8 2.4 0.0 100.0%
18-2 18.1% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 1.4 12.1 5.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-3 19.3% 100.0% 38.8% 61.2% 1.7 8.7 8.4 2.0 0.2 100.0%
16-4 17.0% 100.0% 34.3% 65.7% 2.2 3.9 7.5 4.6 0.9 0.1 100.0%
15-5 12.4% 100.0% 29.1% 70.9% 2.9 0.9 3.3 5.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.9% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 3.7 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 4.9% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 4.6 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 2.4% 99.6% 18.3% 81.3% 5.4 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
11-9 1.0% 99.5% 18.3% 81.2% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
10-10 0.5% 99.0% 18.6% 80.4% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.7%
9-11 0.2% 81.6% 5.3% 76.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.6%
8-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 36.9% 63.0% 2.3 39.0 28.5 16.0 8.3 4.3 2.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.6% 100.0% 1.1 87.0 13.0