Pac-12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Arizona 100.0%   2   22 - 6 13 - 4 25 - 6 16 - 4 +20.2      +12.1 5 +8.1 12 78.9 13 +16.4 9 +14.4 2
31 Colorado 61.2%   11   19 - 9 10 - 7 21 - 10 12 - 8 +12.3      +7.8 23 +4.6 53 71.3 100 +10.7 50 +10.8 4
37 Washington St. 90.8%   7   22 - 7 13 - 5 23 - 8 14 - 6 +11.3      +5.3 54 +6.0 29 63.4 316 +13.4 22 +14.9 1
47 Utah 43.5%   17 - 11 8 - 9 19 - 12 10 - 10 +10.2      +5.7 46 +4.5 55 71.9 83 +10.7 51 +8.0 7
56 Oregon 19.3%   19 - 9 11 - 6 20 - 11 12 - 8 +9.3      +5.4 53 +3.9 63 68.6 181 +10.4 54 +11.7 3
57 Washington 8.0%   16 - 13 8 - 10 17 - 14 9 - 11 +9.2      +6.4 36 +2.8 96 75.9 27 +7.8 78 +6.2 9
88 UCLA 3.3%   13 - 14 9 - 8 14 - 16 10 - 10 +6.4      +0.9 160 +5.6 37 61.2 346 +5.6 100 +8.3 6
97 USC 2.6%   11 - 17 5 - 12 12 - 19 6 - 14 +5.9      +2.6 109 +3.2 85 70.6 118 +3.6 116 +2.6 11
100 California 2.2%   13 - 16 9 - 9 14 - 17 10 - 10 +5.2      +3.0 102 +2.2 112 70.0 138 +4.3 110 +8.7 5
101 Stanford 2.1%   12 - 16 7 - 11 13 - 17 8 - 12 +5.0      +3.6 90 +1.4 132 72.4 71 +3.3 122 +5.4 10
102 Arizona St. 1.9%   14 - 15 8 - 10 15 - 16 9 - 11 +4.6      -0.3 188 +5.0 47 71.4 97 +6.5 90 +6.9 8
137 Oregon St. 0.9%   11 - 17 4 - 14 12 - 18 5 - 15 +1.9      +0.7 167 +1.2 138 63.3 321 +3.2 123 +1.2 12






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Arizona 1.0 97.2 2.7 0.1
Colorado 3.4 0.0 2.6 57.1 38.7 1.4 0.2
Washington St. 1.8 20.1 79.7 0.2
Utah 5.6 0.4 15.4 41.4 20.2 14.2 6.1 2.1 0.2
Oregon 3.3 0.4 3.9 58.0 37.2 0.5
Washington 7.0 0.3 12.4 18.4 33.6 23.7 10.6 1.0
UCLA 5.4 1.1 11.3 49.4 24.4 9.2 4.0 0.5
USC 10.9 0.0 1.3 1.3 8.4 87.4 1.6
California 6.1 0.0 3.9 32.4 24.8 29.7 8.7 0.4
Stanford 9.3 0.1 1.8 6.1 8.3 26.3 56.4 1.0
Arizona St. 7.7 0.2 8.4 12.8 20.0 21.1 34.0 3.6
Oregon St. 11.9 14.3 85.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Arizona 16 - 4 0.2 4.8 29.1 65.9
Colorado 12 - 8 2.3 18.3 46.3 33.1
Washington St. 14 - 6 7.7 38.8 53.5
Utah 10 - 10 4.7 25.9 46.2 23.2
Oregon 12 - 8 20.2 45.8 31.0 3.0
Washington 9 - 11 19.2 57.3 23.5
UCLA 10 - 10 22.1 53.2 22.0 2.7
USC 6 - 14 22.2 51.1 23.6 3.0
California 10 - 10 47.2 43.5 9.3
Stanford 8 - 12 33.3 56.3 10.3
Arizona St. 9 - 11 44.8 43.3 11.9
Oregon St. 5 - 15 52.7 39.5 7.8




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arizona 97.2% 79.9 17.0 0.3 0.0
Colorado 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Washington St. 20.1% 2.8 17.0 0.3 0.0
Utah
Oregon 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0
Washington
UCLA
USC
California
Stanford
Arizona St.
Oregon St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arizona 100.0% 47.8% 52.2% 2   40.0 47.2 11.5 1.3 0.1 100.0%
Colorado 61.2% 11.2% 50.0% 11   0.0 0.4 3.5 8.6 8.3 7.3 8.2 16.3 8.6 0.0 38.8 56.3%
Washington St. 90.8% 9.2% 81.6% 7   0.0 0.8 9.3 19.8 24.7 17.8 11.8 5.7 0.9 9.2 89.9%
Utah 43.5% 7.1% 36.4% 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.8 4.9 7.4 15.4 11.3 0.3 0.0 56.5 39.1%
Oregon 19.3% 5.8% 13.4% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 6.4 9.4 0.3 80.7 14.3%
Washington 8.0% 5.9% 2.1% 0.0 0.8 4.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 92.0 2.3%
UCLA 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.8 0.2 96.7 0.0%
USC 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.1 97.4 0.0%
California 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.5 97.8 0.0%
Stanford 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 0.8 97.9 0.0%
Arizona St. 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.2 0.1 98.1 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 99.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.1% 78.4% 54.4% 33.1% 19.4% 11.0%
Colorado 61.2% 12.6% 55.6% 31.1% 9.9% 3.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Washington St. 90.8% 2.3% 89.6% 48.1% 13.5% 4.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Utah 43.5% 15.4% 35.5% 15.8% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Oregon 19.3% 8.9% 14.5% 5.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 8.0% 2.1% 7.0% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UCLA 3.3% 0.1% 3.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 2.6% 1.3% 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 2.2% 0.1% 2.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 2.1% 0.3% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.4 0.7 13.1 43.4 35.5 6.9 0.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.1 1.2 18.8 47.9 28.3 3.7 0.1
2nd Round 99.5% 2.0 0.5 26.0 47.4 22.8 3.2 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 85.3% 1.1 14.7 64.6 19.0 1.7 0.1
Elite Eight 59.4% 0.6 40.6 54.4 4.9 0.1
Final Four 35.2% 0.4 64.8 34.5 0.8
Final Game 20.0% 0.2 80.0 19.9 0.1
Champion 11.2% 0.1 88.8 11.2