Washington
Pac-12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.7#57
Expected Predictive Rating+6.8#92
Pace74.7#52
Improvement+1.2#102

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#51
First Shot+0.8#159
After Offensive Rebound+4.7#10
Layup/Dunks+5.2#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#231
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#308
Freethrows+1.2#111
Improvement+1.9#48

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#86
First Shot+7.5#12
After Offensive Rebounds-4.3#357
Layups/Dunks+3.6#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#71
Freethrows-0.4#209
Improvement-0.7#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 1.7% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 5.1% 5.5% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.1% 30.4% 13.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.5% 26.7% 10.9%
Average Seed 8.8 8.7 10.1
.500 or above 69.5% 71.5% 46.5%
.500 or above in Conference 61.9% 62.9% 49.8%
Conference Champion 3.3% 3.4% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.4% 5.9%
First Four5.7% 5.9% 3.2%
First Round26.1% 27.3% 12.2%
Second Round12.5% 13.1% 5.7%
Sweet Sixteen4.4% 4.6% 1.9%
Elite Eight1.6% 1.7% 0.7%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.0% 0.1%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 92.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 8
Quad 25 - 47 - 12
Quad 35 - 112 - 14
Quad 45 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 226   Bellarmine W 91-57 91%     1 - 0 +28.1 +10.1 +15.8
  Nov 09, 2023 186   Northern Kentucky W 75-67 88%     2 - 0 +3.9 +2.0 +2.0
  Nov 12, 2023 43   Nevada L 76-83 54%     2 - 1 +0.7 +2.7 -1.6
  Nov 17, 2023 45   Xavier W 74-71 43%     3 - 1 +13.5 +0.0 +13.3
  Nov 19, 2023 28   San Diego St. L 97-100 OT 36%     3 - 2 +9.4 +18.4 -8.5
  Nov 28, 2023 236   UC San Diego W 83-56 92%     4 - 2 +20.4 +3.0 +16.7
  Dec 02, 2023 21   Colorado St. L 81-86 33%     4 - 3 +8.2 +14.2 -6.2
  Dec 05, 2023 227   Montana St. W 78-63 92%    
  Dec 09, 2023 10   Gonzaga L 79-83 34%    
  Dec 17, 2023 136   @ Seattle W 77-73 64%    
  Dec 21, 2023 217   Eastern Washington W 90-76 90%    
  Dec 29, 2023 40   @ Colorado L 74-80 30%    
  Dec 31, 2023 38   @ Utah L 74-80 31%    
  Jan 04, 2024 49   Oregon W 79-77 56%    
  Jan 06, 2024 147   Oregon St. W 77-66 83%    
  Jan 11, 2024 81   Arizona St. W 76-71 69%    
  Jan 14, 2024 41   @ UCLA L 67-73 31%    
  Jan 18, 2024 140   @ California W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 20, 2024 101   @ Stanford W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 24, 2024 40   Colorado W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 27, 2024 38   Utah W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 03, 2024 62   Washington St. W 75-72 63%    
  Feb 08, 2024 49   @ Oregon L 76-80 36%    
  Feb 10, 2024 147   @ Oregon St. W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 15, 2024 101   Stanford W 80-73 73%    
  Feb 17, 2024 140   California W 79-69 81%    
  Feb 22, 2024 81   @ Arizona St. L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 24, 2024 2   @ Arizona L 76-90 11%    
  Feb 29, 2024 41   UCLA W 71-70 52%    
  Mar 02, 2024 32   USC L 76-77 50%    
  Mar 07, 2024 62   @ Washington St. L 72-75 42%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.1 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.1 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.6 3.2 1.0 0.2 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.7 3.2 0.6 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 4.9 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 5.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.1 3.2 0.7 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.3 3.0 0.7 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.3 2.5 0.5 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 1.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 3.0 5.1 6.8 9.5 11.4 12.4 12.2 11.2 9.8 7.3 4.8 2.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 87.6% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
17-3 62.5% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0
16-4 38.2% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.1
15-5 14.4% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.5% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.0% 99.0% 13.2% 85.8% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
16-4 2.7% 97.5% 12.2% 85.3% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.2%
15-5 4.8% 92.0% 9.9% 82.1% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.4 91.1%
14-6 7.3% 81.6% 7.6% 74.0% 8.6 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 1.3 80.1%
13-7 9.8% 58.0% 7.4% 50.6% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 1.0 0.1 4.1 54.7%
12-8 11.2% 40.8% 6.1% 34.7% 10.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.6 36.9%
11-9 12.2% 19.5% 4.4% 15.2% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.8 15.9%
10-10 12.4% 8.2% 3.6% 4.6% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.4 4.8%
9-11 11.4% 2.8% 2.8% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.1
8-12 9.5% 3.2% 3.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.2
7-13 6.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.6
6-14 5.1% 1.3% 1.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 5.0
5-15 3.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.0
4-16 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 29.1% 4.9% 24.2% 8.8 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.2 2.3 2.7 3.6 4.9 6.2 4.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 70.9 25.5%