USC
Pac-12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.5#32
Expected Predictive Rating+9.4#63
Pace70.5#152
Improvement-0.2#199

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#51
First Shot+7.6#20
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#286
Layup/Dunks-0.4#184
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#181
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#59
Freethrows+4.1#23
Improvement-0.4#230

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#24
First Shot+5.0#52
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#58
Layups/Dunks+3.9#56
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#194
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#285
Freethrows+4.1#12
Improvement+0.2#155
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.4% 1.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 4.0% 4.2% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 14.2% 14.7% 4.8%
Top 6 Seed 28.9% 29.8% 13.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.1% 70.1% 49.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.2% 66.3% 44.5%
Average Seed 7.0 7.0 8.1
.500 or above 91.8% 92.7% 75.4%
.500 or above in Conference 85.3% 86.0% 73.0%
Conference Champion 12.6% 12.9% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 1.7%
First Four6.0% 5.9% 7.2%
First Round66.2% 67.3% 45.4%
Second Round42.0% 43.0% 24.5%
Sweet Sixteen18.2% 18.7% 8.4%
Elite Eight7.7% 8.0% 3.0%
Final Four3.3% 3.4% 1.0%
Championship Game1.3% 1.3% 0.3%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 95.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 7
Quad 25 - 310 - 10
Quad 35 - 115 - 11
Quad 45 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 44   Kansas St. W 82-69 57%     1 - 0 +23.6 +6.9 +15.6
  Nov 09, 2023 288   Cal St. Bakersfield W 85-59 97%     2 - 0 +16.3 +9.8 +6.9
  Nov 14, 2023 69   UC Irvine L 60-70 77%     2 - 1 -5.1 -8.6 +3.5
  Nov 19, 2023 222   Brown W 81-70 95%     3 - 1 +5.1 +7.4 -2.2
  Nov 23, 2023 74   Seton Hall W 71-63 70%     4 - 1 +15.2 +0.9 +14.1
  Nov 24, 2023 24   Oklahoma L 70-72 48%     4 - 2 +11.1 +6.4 +4.7
  Nov 29, 2023 201   Eastern Washington W 86-69 95%    
  Dec 02, 2023 10   Gonzaga L 74-77 38%    
  Dec 10, 2023 136   Long Beach St. W 85-71 90%    
  Dec 17, 2023 21   @ Auburn L 71-75 35%    
  Dec 19, 2023 330   @ Alabama St. W 80-60 97%    
  Dec 28, 2023 48   @ Oregon L 74-75 48%    
  Dec 30, 2023 157   @ Oregon St. W 71-62 80%    
  Jan 03, 2024 153   California W 78-63 91%    
  Jan 06, 2024 98   Stanford W 78-67 83%    
  Jan 10, 2024 64   Washington St. W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 13, 2024 38   @ Colorado L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 17, 2024 2   @ Arizona L 74-84 19%    
  Jan 20, 2024 86   @ Arizona St. W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 27, 2024 26   UCLA W 68-65 58%    
  Feb 01, 2024 48   Oregon W 77-72 69%    
  Feb 03, 2024 157   Oregon St. W 74-59 91%    
  Feb 07, 2024 153   @ California W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 10, 2024 98   @ Stanford W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 15, 2024 40   Utah W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 17, 2024 38   Colorado W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 24, 2024 26   @ UCLA L 65-68 38%    
  Feb 29, 2024 64   @ Washington St. W 70-69 54%    
  Mar 02, 2024 65   @ Washington W 76-75 54%    
  Mar 07, 2024 86   Arizona St. W 75-65 80%    
  Mar 09, 2024 2   Arizona L 77-81 36%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.3 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.1 12.6 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 4.9 6.2 4.1 1.4 0.2 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.2 5.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.5 4.5 1.3 0.2 14.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.9 3.6 1.0 0.1 11.7 5th
6th 0.2 1.3 3.7 2.9 0.7 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.5 0.5 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.4 4.0 6.2 8.8 11.1 12.8 13.8 12.4 10.5 7.7 5.1 2.2 0.9 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 91.5% 2.0    1.7 0.4
17-3 71.6% 3.6    2.4 1.2 0.1
16-4 42.5% 3.3    1.6 1.3 0.4 0.0
15-5 18.2% 1.9    0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1
14-6 4.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.6% 12.6 7.4 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.9% 100.0% 34.2% 65.8% 1.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.2% 100.0% 25.1% 74.9% 2.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-3 5.1% 99.8% 22.1% 77.6% 3.3 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
16-4 7.7% 99.7% 19.3% 80.4% 4.5 0.1 0.3 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 10.5% 98.7% 15.1% 83.6% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.6 2.4 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.5%
14-6 12.4% 95.6% 12.9% 82.8% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.6 2.8 2.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.5 95.0%
13-7 13.8% 88.7% 10.2% 78.5% 8.2 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.1 2.9 2.0 0.6 0.0 1.6 87.4%
12-8 12.8% 71.9% 9.2% 62.7% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.4 2.6 1.4 0.1 3.6 69.0%
11-9 11.1% 53.9% 7.3% 46.6% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.0 0.2 5.1 50.3%
10-10 8.8% 29.2% 5.6% 23.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 25.0%
9-11 6.2% 9.2% 5.2% 4.0% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.6 4.2%
8-12 4.0% 4.8% 4.7% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.8 0.1%
7-13 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
6-14 1.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.6% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.6
4-16 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 69.1% 11.2% 57.8% 7.0 1.4 2.6 4.5 5.7 7.0 7.7 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.0 5.6 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 30.9 65.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 56.5 43.5