Arizona
Pac-12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.6#2
Expected Predictive Rating+24.3#1
Pace80.3#7
Improvement+0.2#168

Offense
Total Offense+10.7#4
First Shot+7.9#16
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#49
Layup/Dunks+9.5#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#280
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#242
Freethrows+2.1#66
Improvement+0.4#143

Defense
Total Defense+8.9#9
First Shot+5.7#35
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#17
Layups/Dunks+9.0#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#316
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#313
Freethrows+3.3#26
Improvement-0.2#204
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 16.3% 17.6% 10.5%
#1 Seed 50.6% 53.6% 36.8%
Top 2 Seed 77.6% 80.3% 64.7%
Top 4 Seed 93.8% 95.3% 86.4%
Top 6 Seed 98.4% 99.0% 95.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 99.9% 99.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
Average Seed 2.0 1.8 2.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.7% 99.3%
Conference Champion 73.1% 74.7% 65.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round99.8% 99.9% 99.4%
Second Round95.0% 95.5% 92.3%
Sweet Sixteen70.9% 72.1% 65.4%
Elite Eight47.8% 49.3% 40.7%
Final Four30.4% 31.8% 23.7%
Championship Game18.4% 19.4% 14.1%
National Champion11.1% 11.8% 7.8%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Home) - 82.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 24 - 2
Quad 1b5 - 19 - 4
Quad 27 - 116 - 5
Quad 36 - 022 - 5
Quad 44 - 026 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 337   Morgan St. W 122-59 99.5%    1 - 0 +48.4 +30.0 +12.2
  Nov 10, 2023 12   @ Duke W 78-73 53%     2 - 0 +23.8 +7.7 +15.6
  Nov 13, 2023 320   Southern W 97-59 99%     3 - 0 +26.3 +5.7 +15.2
  Nov 17, 2023 148   Belmont W 100-68 97%     4 - 0 +29.9 +12.6 +13.8
  Nov 19, 2023 167   Texas Arlington W 101-56 97%     5 - 0 +41.8 +15.8 +21.1
  Nov 23, 2023 16   Michigan St. W 74-68 67%     6 - 0 +21.1 +13.0 +8.3
  Dec 02, 2023 127   Colgate W 82-55 96%     7 - 0 +26.5 +4.2 +20.5
  Dec 09, 2023 22   Wisconsin W 78-68 83%    
  Dec 16, 2023 1   Purdue L 80-81 48%    
  Dec 20, 2023 15   Alabama W 91-87 66%    
  Dec 23, 2023 13   Florida Atlantic W 83-79 65%    
  Dec 29, 2023 140   @ California W 84-69 92%    
  Dec 31, 2023 101   @ Stanford W 85-73 87%    
  Jan 04, 2024 40   Colorado W 85-74 85%    
  Jan 06, 2024 38   Utah W 85-74 85%    
  Jan 13, 2024 62   @ Washington St. W 79-71 78%    
  Jan 17, 2024 32   USC W 84-73 83%    
  Jan 20, 2024 41   UCLA W 78-67 85%    
  Jan 25, 2024 147   @ Oregon St. W 81-65 92%    
  Jan 27, 2024 49   @ Oregon W 84-77 73%    
  Feb 01, 2024 140   California W 87-66 97%    
  Feb 04, 2024 101   Stanford W 88-70 94%    
  Feb 08, 2024 38   @ Utah W 82-77 68%    
  Feb 10, 2024 40   @ Colorado W 82-77 68%    
  Feb 17, 2024 81   Arizona St. W 84-68 93%    
  Feb 22, 2024 62   Washington St. W 82-68 90%    
  Feb 24, 2024 57   Washington W 90-76 89%    
  Feb 28, 2024 81   @ Arizona St. W 81-71 82%    
  Mar 02, 2024 49   Oregon W 87-74 87%    
  Mar 07, 2024 41   @ UCLA W 75-70 68%    
  Mar 09, 2024 32   @ USC W 81-76 66%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.4 4.4 11.3 16.3 18.8 14.2 6.4 73.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.4 5.2 3.8 1.5 0.2 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.3 0.9 0.2 6.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.7 7.6 10.5 15.3 17.8 19.0 14.2 6.4 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 6.4    6.4
19-1 100.0% 14.2    14.2 0.1
18-2 98.9% 18.8    17.9 1.0 0.0
17-3 91.7% 16.3    13.8 2.5 0.0
16-4 73.8% 11.3    7.4 3.4 0.5 0.0
15-5 41.5% 4.4    1.9 2.0 0.4 0.0
14-6 18.9% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 73.1% 73.1 61.9 9.5 1.4 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 6.4% 100.0% 59.0% 41.0% 1.1 5.7 0.7 100.0%
19-1 14.2% 100.0% 54.1% 45.9% 1.1 12.2 2.0 0.1 100.0%
18-2 19.0% 100.0% 47.6% 52.4% 1.3 13.8 5.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 17.8% 100.0% 38.8% 61.2% 1.5 10.5 6.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.3% 100.0% 38.5% 61.5% 1.8 5.9 7.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.5% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 2.4 2.1 4.0 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.1 100.0%
14-6 7.6% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 3.1 0.4 1.8 3.0 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 4.7% 99.7% 21.5% 78.2% 4.2 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 2.5% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 5.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 1.1% 99.8% 16.5% 83.3% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-10 0.5% 97.6% 9.3% 88.3% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.3%
9-11 0.2% 94.5% 17.4% 77.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.3%
8-12 0.1% 60.4% 2.1% 58.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.6%
7-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 40.7% 59.2% 2.0 50.6 27.0 10.7 5.4 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 1.1 92.8 7.2