Colorado
Pac-12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.6#38
Expected Predictive Rating+9.2#65
Pace71.4#132
Improvement-0.2#204

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#56
First Shot+7.2#24
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#293
Layup/Dunks+4.8#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#186
Freethrows+2.9#39
Improvement-0.8#268

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#30
First Shot+5.5#35
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#117
Layups/Dunks+1.7#114
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#156
Freethrows+0.3#177
Improvement+0.6#123
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 1.9% 3.4% 1.1%
Top 4 Seed 8.1% 14.0% 4.9%
Top 6 Seed 18.4% 29.3% 12.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.9% 71.0% 49.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 52.6% 67.5% 45.0%
Average Seed 7.6 7.0 8.1
.500 or above 93.7% 97.8% 91.6%
.500 or above in Conference 79.2% 85.2% 76.1%
Conference Champion 8.4% 10.9% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four6.6% 5.3% 7.2%
First Round53.6% 68.2% 45.9%
Second Round31.4% 42.8% 25.4%
Sweet Sixteen12.5% 18.1% 9.5%
Elite Eight5.2% 7.4% 4.0%
Final Four2.1% 3.3% 1.4%
Championship Game0.8% 1.2% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 34.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 7
Quad 24 - 38 - 9
Quad 35 - 113 - 10
Quad 47 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 196   Towson W 75-57 93%     1 - 0 +13.2 +6.3 +8.4
  Nov 10, 2023 327   Grambling St. W 95-63 98%     2 - 0 +19.2 +14.8 +3.5
  Nov 14, 2023 261   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 106-79 96%     3 - 0 +18.5 +18.0 -1.5
  Nov 20, 2023 85   Richmond W 64-59 70%     4 - 0 +11.0 +3.3 +8.4
  Nov 21, 2023 66   Florida St. L 71-77 OT 63%     4 - 1 +2.1 -8.3 +11.3
  Nov 26, 2023 158   Iona W 85-68 90%     5 - 1 +14.4 +9.3 +5.0
  Nov 29, 2023 28   @ Colorado St. L 72-76 35%    
  Dec 03, 2023 185   Pepperdine W 84-68 94%    
  Dec 10, 2023 29   Miami (FL) L 77-78 46%    
  Dec 15, 2023 282   Northern Colorado W 85-64 97%    
  Dec 21, 2023 232   Utah Tech W 70-52 95%    
  Dec 29, 2023 65   Washington W 79-73 72%    
  Dec 31, 2023 64   Washington St. W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 04, 2024 2   @ Arizona L 74-85 16%    
  Jan 06, 2024 86   @ Arizona St. W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 10, 2024 153   @ California W 75-67 77%    
  Jan 13, 2024 32   USC W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 18, 2024 48   Oregon W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 20, 2024 157   Oregon St. W 74-60 90%    
  Jan 24, 2024 65   @ Washington W 77-76 51%    
  Jan 27, 2024 64   @ Washington St. W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 03, 2024 40   @ Utah L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 08, 2024 86   Arizona St. W 75-66 78%    
  Feb 10, 2024 2   Arizona L 77-82 33%    
  Feb 15, 2024 26   @ UCLA L 65-69 35%    
  Feb 17, 2024 32   @ USC L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 24, 2024 40   Utah W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 28, 2024 153   California W 78-64 89%    
  Mar 03, 2024 98   Stanford W 78-68 80%    
  Mar 07, 2024 48   @ Oregon L 74-75 46%    
  Mar 09, 2024 157   @ Oregon St. W 71-63 77%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.5 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 8.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.3 5.0 2.8 0.9 0.1 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.7 6.0 4.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.9 4.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.3 4.2 0.9 0.1 13.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.3 3.5 0.7 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.4 3.6 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.2 0.5 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.6 5.7 8.1 10.2 12.2 13.7 13.2 10.9 8.5 5.5 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 93.5% 1.3    1.2 0.2
17-3 68.7% 2.0    1.2 0.7 0.1
16-4 45.1% 2.5    1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 17.6% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 4.3% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 4.6 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.4% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 2.6 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.0% 100.0% 19.2% 80.8% 3.6 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.5% 99.3% 16.0% 83.3% 4.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.1%
15-5 8.5% 97.1% 13.4% 83.7% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.1 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.7%
14-6 10.9% 93.0% 12.0% 81.1% 7.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.8 92.1%
13-7 13.2% 81.0% 9.5% 71.5% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.1 1.0 0.0 2.5 79.0%
12-8 13.7% 64.3% 9.0% 55.3% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.1 2.8 2.0 0.2 4.9 60.8%
11-9 12.2% 42.7% 7.6% 35.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.8 1.9 0.3 7.0 38.0%
10-10 10.2% 22.7% 5.6% 17.1% 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.9 18.1%
9-11 8.1% 7.7% 3.6% 4.1% 11.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.5 4.2%
8-12 5.7% 3.5% 2.9% 0.6% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.6%
7-13 3.6% 3.3% 3.1% 0.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.4 0.2%
6-14 1.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
5-15 1.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-17 0.1% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 56.9% 8.9% 48.0% 7.6 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.8 4.7 5.6 6.8 7.5 7.8 8.5 6.6 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 43.1 52.6%