UCLA
Pac-12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.9#26
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#141
Pace62.9#325
Improvement+1.1#80

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#61
First Shot+6.3#37
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#263
Layup/Dunks+2.2#99
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.2#342
Freethrows+4.1#24
Improvement+0.8#103

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#14
First Shot+8.2#11
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#193
Layups/Dunks+8.9#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#150
Freethrows-1.1#250
Improvement+0.4#143
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.3% 3.5% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 11.5% 11.8% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 23.0% 23.6% 7.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.1% 61.1% 35.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.5% 55.4% 30.3%
Average Seed 7.2 7.2 8.6
.500 or above 92.4% 93.0% 76.6%
.500 or above in Conference 86.8% 87.3% 75.7%
Conference Champion 14.7% 15.1% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.8%
First Four4.8% 4.8% 4.5%
First Round58.0% 59.0% 33.4%
Second Round37.6% 38.3% 18.5%
Sweet Sixteen17.2% 17.6% 5.6%
Elite Eight7.8% 7.9% 3.0%
Final Four3.6% 3.7% 1.6%
Championship Game1.6% 1.7% 1.0%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.4%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 96.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 8
Quad 25 - 29 - 10
Quad 35 - 113 - 11
Quad 46 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 359   St. Francis (PA) W 75-44 99%     1 - 0 +12.9 -0.3 +15.9
  Nov 10, 2023 320   Lafayette W 68-50 98%     2 - 0 +6.4 -0.9 +9.1
  Nov 15, 2023 347   LIU Brooklyn W 78-58 99%     3 - 0 +4.2 -0.3 +4.9
  Nov 20, 2023 6   Marquette L 69-71 30%     3 - 1 +16.3 +7.9 +8.2
  Nov 22, 2023 10   Gonzaga L 65-69 39%     3 - 2 +11.9 +3.5 +8.0
  Nov 30, 2023 227   UC Riverside W 75-56 96%    
  Dec 09, 2023 16   @ Villanova L 62-67 31%    
  Dec 16, 2023 27   Ohio St. W 68-67 51%    
  Dec 19, 2023 299   Cal St. Northridge W 80-57 98%    
  Dec 22, 2023 59   Maryland W 65-58 74%    
  Dec 28, 2023 157   @ Oregon St. W 67-58 80%    
  Dec 30, 2023 48   @ Oregon L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 03, 2024 98   Stanford W 73-62 85%    
  Jan 06, 2024 153   California W 73-58 92%    
  Jan 11, 2024 40   @ Utah L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 14, 2024 65   Washington W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 17, 2024 86   @ Arizona St. W 67-63 64%    
  Jan 20, 2024 2   @ Arizona L 68-77 20%    
  Jan 27, 2024 32   @ USC L 65-68 42%    
  Feb 01, 2024 157   Oregon St. W 70-55 91%    
  Feb 03, 2024 48   Oregon W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 07, 2024 98   @ Stanford W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 10, 2024 153   @ California W 70-61 79%    
  Feb 15, 2024 38   Colorado W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 18, 2024 40   Utah W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 24, 2024 32   USC W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 29, 2024 65   @ Washington W 71-69 56%    
  Mar 02, 2024 64   @ Washington St. W 66-64 55%    
  Mar 07, 2024 2   Arizona L 71-74 38%    
  Mar 09, 2024 86   Arizona St. W 70-60 81%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.9 4.2 2.8 1.1 0.2 14.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.3 7.2 4.8 1.7 0.2 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.9 5.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 17.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.4 4.2 1.1 0.1 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.5 3.3 0.9 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 6.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.5 5.7 7.9 10.1 12.2 13.0 13.0 11.3 9.1 5.8 3.0 1.1 0.2 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
18-2 93.5% 2.8    2.3 0.5
17-3 71.2% 4.2    2.8 1.2 0.1
16-4 43.0% 3.9    1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0
15-5 15.7% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0
14-6 5.2% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.7% 14.7 9.0 4.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.1% 100.0% 34.7% 65.3% 1.9 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.0% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 2.8 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.8% 99.9% 22.1% 77.7% 4.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 9.1% 98.5% 19.5% 79.0% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.4 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.2%
15-5 11.3% 95.3% 16.7% 78.6% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.2 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 94.3%
14-6 13.0% 86.2% 12.9% 73.3% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.0 2.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 1.8 84.2%
13-7 13.0% 69.2% 11.8% 57.4% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 1.3 0.1 4.0 65.1%
12-8 12.2% 47.0% 8.6% 38.4% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.5 42.0%
11-9 10.1% 27.0% 8.8% 18.1% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.4 19.9%
10-10 7.9% 11.6% 5.6% 6.0% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 6.3%
9-11 5.7% 6.7% 5.9% 0.8% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.4 0.9%
8-12 3.5% 3.8% 3.6% 0.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.3 0.2%
7-13 2.1% 3.4% 3.4% 15.3 0.1 0.0 2.1
6-14 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 60.1% 12.4% 47.7% 7.2 1.2 2.2 3.4 4.7 5.6 6.0 7.5 8.3 7.2 7.3 5.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 39.9 54.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 80.6 9.7 9.7