California
Pac-12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#140
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#273
Pace65.2#289
Improvement+4.1#8

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#125
First Shot+0.2#175
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#93
Layup/Dunks+0.1#171
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#89
Freethrows+0.3#154
Improvement-0.1#192

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#176
First Shot+2.0#106
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#316
Layups/Dunks+3.7#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#55
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#273
Freethrows-1.5#272
Improvement+4.2#1
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.6% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.6 13.7 14.9
.500 or above 1.9% 4.4% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 4.7% 7.4% 4.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 39.2% 32.0% 40.3%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
First Round0.8% 1.5% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 13.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 10
Quad 22 - 63 - 16
Quad 33 - 36 - 19
Quad 43 - 39 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 250   St. Thomas W 71-66 81%     1 - 0 -2.6 +5.5 -7.3
  Nov 10, 2023 311   Pacific L 79-87 88%     1 - 1 -19.3 +0.6 -19.7
  Nov 13, 2023 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 83-63 85%     2 - 1 +10.5 +9.5 +1.8
  Nov 16, 2023 227   Montana St. L 60-63 76%     2 - 2 -9.1 -7.7 -1.6
  Nov 20, 2023 175   UTEP L 72-75 58%     2 - 3 -3.5 +4.7 -8.3
  Nov 22, 2023 89   Tulane L 81-84 35%     2 - 4 +2.6 -0.1 +3.0
  Nov 25, 2023 28   San Diego St. L 67-76 OT 15%     2 - 5 +3.4 -1.0 +4.8
  Dec 02, 2023 135   Santa Clara W 84-69 59%     3 - 5 +14.1 +12.0 +2.6
  Dec 09, 2023 47   @ Butler L 67-79 13%    
  Dec 16, 2023 77   Mississippi L 66-72 30%    
  Dec 20, 2023 236   UC San Diego W 74-66 78%    
  Dec 29, 2023 2   Arizona L 69-84 8%    
  Dec 31, 2023 81   Arizona St. L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 03, 2024 32   @ USC L 64-78 11%    
  Jan 06, 2024 41   @ UCLA L 59-72 13%    
  Jan 10, 2024 40   Colorado L 68-75 26%    
  Jan 13, 2024 49   @ Oregon L 67-78 16%    
  Jan 18, 2024 57   Washington L 72-76 35%    
  Jan 20, 2024 62   Washington St. L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 26, 2024 101   Stanford L 71-72 50%    
  Feb 01, 2024 2   @ Arizona L 66-87 3%    
  Feb 03, 2024 81   @ Arizona St. L 64-72 24%    
  Feb 07, 2024 32   USC L 67-75 25%    
  Feb 10, 2024 41   UCLA L 62-69 27%    
  Feb 15, 2024 62   @ Washington St. L 63-73 19%    
  Feb 17, 2024 57   @ Washington L 69-79 19%    
  Feb 22, 2024 147   Oregon St. W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 24, 2024 49   Oregon L 70-75 32%    
  Feb 28, 2024 40   @ Colorado L 65-78 13%    
  Mar 02, 2024 38   @ Utah L 65-78 13%    
  Mar 07, 2024 101   @ Stanford L 69-75 29%    
Projected Record 9 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.8 4th
5th 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.0 1.3 0.1 6.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 3.3 4.5 1.9 0.2 10.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.0 5.6 6.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 17.5 10th
11th 0.2 1.9 5.8 9.2 7.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 28.1 11th
12th 1.2 4.1 7.2 7.9 4.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 27.4 12th
Total 1.2 4.3 9.1 14.1 16.1 15.6 12.9 10.2 7.0 4.6 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 41.7% 0.0    0.0
14-6 19.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 57.9% 57.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.9%
13-7 0.3% 8.5% 5.0% 3.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.7%
12-8 0.6% 7.7% 1.9% 5.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 5.9%
11-9 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.2%
10-10 2.4% 3.0% 3.0% 15.0 0.1 2.4
9-11 4.6% 2.5% 2.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.5
8-12 7.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 6.9
7-13 10.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 10.1
6-14 12.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.8
5-15 15.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.6
4-16 16.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 16.1
3-17 14.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.1
2-18 9.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.0
1-19 4.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.3
0-20 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 99.0 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%